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Venezuela Declares State of Emergency and Mobilises Armed Forces
SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 9:30 GMT 03 JANUARY 2026
At approximately 02:00 local time on 03 January 2026, multiple explosions were reported across Caracas, primarily near La Carlota Air Base and Fort Tiuna, which houses the Venezuelan Ministry of Defence. Witnesses reported multiple fighter jets over the capital preceding the blasts.
Explosions were also reported at locations outside Caracas, including Higuerote Airport in Miranda State, the Libertador Air Base in Aragua State, and port infrastructure in La Guaira State. In response to the airstrikes, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a NOTAM restricting all civil and commercial aircraft from operating in Venezuelan airspace due to ongoing military operations.
At 03:29 local time, the Venezuelan government issued an official statement condemning what it described as military aggression by the United States in Caracas, Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira States. Five minutes later, President Nicolas Maduro declared a nationwide state of emergency, calling for a general mobilisation of Venezuela’s Armed Forces in response to the “serious military aggression.”
The attacks prompted international reactions, including from Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who denounced the strikes on social media platform X and called for immediate intervention by the United Nations and the Organisation of American States (OAS).
The US Embassy in Venezuela has advised against all travel to Venezuela and has urged those presently in-country to shelter-in-place.
US President Donald Trump claimed via Truth Social at 04:20 Eastern Time, that President Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country amidst the strikes; however, this has yet to be officially confirmed.
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
Risk of Further Military Action and Regional Disruption in Venezuela Remains High
The reported targeting of military facilities and airports inside Venezuela represents a significant escalation in US–Venezuela tensions, which have steadily deteriorated since August 2025. The substantial buildup of US naval and air assets in the wider Caribbean has largely been interpreted as pressure aimed at undermining the Maduro government. This posture has coincided with multiple US strikes against suspected narcotics trafficking networks, resulting in over 100 fatalities, as well as the seizure of illicit oil tankers suspected of transporting Venezuelan oil in circumvention of sanctions.
The reported strikes on airports and military installations likely suggest an effort to degrade Venezuela’s ability to conduct retaliatory military operations, by limiting air and logistical capabilities. Sustained damage to multiple airfields and port facilities would achieve a clear tactical advantage for any potential follow-on operations and further constrain the operational freedom of Venezuela’s armed forces.
Reports of President Maduro’s capture are yet to be confirmed; however, if true, the United States has likely achieved one of its primary objectives, which may decrease the risk of further US strikes on Venezuela in the immediate term.
In response to foreign military activity within Venezuelan soil, authorities are likely to implement heightened travel restrictions, curfews, and border closures in the coming days to manage potential unrest and support military operations. Increased security patrols, checkpoints, and the deployment of the armed forces to key infrastructure are likely. The authorities may also restrict the right to assembly or limit access to the internet and telecommunications, limiting situational awareness within Venezuela. Foreign nationals, particularly US and other Western citizens, will likely face an elevated risk of detention due to perceptions or allegations of involvement in the recent military activity.
If US strikes are sustained, they are expected to cause significant disruptions to air travel in the Southern Caribbean Basin. The proximity of Trinidad and Tobago and the ABC Islands, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao, to mainland Venezuela is expected to make travel to and from these areas highly difficult. The closure of Venezuelan airspace is also likely to extend flight times on routes connecting the United States and Canada with areas of South America.
Travel and Safety Guidance for Venezuela
- Travellers in Venezuela should shelter in place due to the risk posed by airstrikes and wider military operations.
- Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and do not take any pictures or videos of potential military targets or sensitive areas.
- Avoid travelling in proximity to any military installations or bases.
- Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts. Unverified claims and disinformation will almost certainly be widely propagated on social media and unvetted sources.
- Monitor airport and public transport sites for live updates on possible disruptions from the airstrikes.
- Expect the security situation in the region to remain unstable in the immediate future.
- Avoid protest hotspots, particularly outside embassies.
- Allocate additional time for travel to airports due to the high likelihood of delays.
- Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged.
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