Quarterly Election Briefing

Election Guide: Q3 2025

Key Election Flashpoints and Security Risks to Monitor

From Bolivia to Moldova, this quarter features a series of important elections that could influence not just domestic politics, but also regional dynamics and global partnerships. Whether triggered by political shifts, economic pressures or post-crisis transitions, each election carries its own risks and considerations.

This guide offers a concise overview of the key upcoming votes in Q3 2025. For each country, we’ve highlighted what is driving the elections, what to watch for, and how it could impact operational planning.

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Here’s what’s inside:

Bolivia: General Election 17 August

Could Bolivia’s election reshape its political future?

Bolivia’s 17 August general election comes amid deep political fragmentation and ongoing unrest linked to former President Evo Morales. With Morales barred from standing, support for his party has fractured, and pro-business candidates are gaining ground. Protests, especially in the Chapare region, have disrupted key transport corridors, and tensions are expected to remain high both before and after the vote.

Taiwan: Referendum 23 August

Will Taiwan’s nuclear vote spark a shift in regional security?

On 23 August, Taiwan will vote on whether to restart its last nuclear power plant, closed earlier this year. The referendum is politically charged, with implications for energy security, cross-strait tensions with China, and public trust. As Taiwan balances between reducing carbon emissions and safeguarding energy supplies, Beijing is likely to influence the outcome through strategic pressure.

Samoa: General Elections 29 August

What’s behind Samoa’s political shake-up in 2025?

Samoa’s snap elections on 29 August follow a collapsed budget vote and a split within the ruling FAST party. The political crisis coincides with growing international interest in the Pacific region, raising concerns over foreign influence. While major unrest is unlikely, the campaign is expected to feature misinformation and digital interference, echoing patterns seen in 2021.

Guyana: General Elections 1 September

What does oil wealth mean for Guyana’s 2025 election?

Guyana heads to the polls on 1 September against a backdrop of booming oil wealth and renewed border tensions with Venezuela. The government’s social spending has boosted its popularity, but risks remain around election credibility, especially given the violent aftermath of the 2020 vote.

Norway: Parliamentary Elections 8 September

How could foreign interference affect Norway’s 2025 elections?

Norway’s 8 September vote is unlikely to see major unrest, but it may not be free from foreign influence. Russian-backed disinformation campaigns and covert tactics are raising concerns. As nationalist groups gain ground, authorities are preparing for more than just ballots – cyber risks and information warfare are on the radar.

Macau: Legislative Elections 14 September

Can Macau’s legislative elections offer real political choice?

With only 14 of 33 seats elected by the public, Macau’s 14 September legislative elections will likely reinforce the status quo. Pro-democracy candidates remain barred, and Beijing’s influence continues to shape the political landscape. While protests are improbable, a genuine political contest is just as unlikely.

Malawi: General Elections 16 September

Can Malawi’s general election rebuild trust in its political system?

After disputed elections and governance challenges, Malawi’s upcoming vote tests the public’s faith in democratic institutions. With food inflation, corruption concerns, and lingering polarisation, the outcome may shape not only leadership, but public confidence in the process itself.

Gabon: Legislative Elections 27 September

How is Gabon shaping its post-coup political landscape in 2025?

Gabon’s 27 September legislative vote marks a key step in its return to civilian rule after the 2023 coup. While the transitional president’s new party is set to dominate, questions remain over democratic credibility and the consolidation of power. The risk of post-election unrest is low but hinges on the perceived legitimacy of the process.

Moldova: Parliamentary Elections 28 September

Could Moldova’s 2025 election decide its EU future?

Moldova’s 28 September parliamentary vote follows a tightly contested presidential election and an EU accession referendum. Russian-backed influence campaigns and domestic polarisation are likely to shape the campaign. With past elections marked by unrest, the vote is seen as a pivotal moment in Moldova’s geopolitical trajectory.