Coup Attempt Reported in Madagascar

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

This almost certainly constitutes the most significant threat to President Rajoelina’s rule since the disputed 2023 re-election, with the military unit that installed him in 2009 now attempting to oust him. While it is currently unclear to what extent CAPSAT has seized control of the government, the lack of statements from Rajoelina likely confirms reports that he has fled the country.

A previous coup took place in Madagascar in 2009 following a political crisis driven by tensions between President Marc Ravalomanana and opposition forces led by Rajoelina, then mayor of Antananarivo. Following months of protests and clashes, soldiers stormed and seized the Ambohitsorohitra Presidential Palace in March, forcing Ravalomanana to transfer power to a military council, after which the military junta formally handed over power to Rajoelina.

Following the coup, many of Ravalomanana’s supporters refused to accept the legitimacy of Rajoelina’s new government and staged demonstrations in the capital, to which security forces cracked down, resulting in at least 30 to 40 deaths, according to some estimates, in the immediate weeks after the coup. Prominent supporters of Ravalomanana were detained or forced into hiding, and journalists and media critics of the new leadership were censored or attacked. The situation was finally resolved after nine months, with a power-sharing agreement put in place in November 2009.

Another coup was attempted in November 2010 following factional divisions within the military; fighting broke out in Antananarivo, leaving several people dead before loyalist forces regained control.

Significant economic disruptions took place. Rajoelina announced a freeze of all mining contracts with foreign companies due to their alleged failure to pay the required fees and royalties. Major partners such as the World Bank, IMF, EU, and US, suspended aid or downgraded relations, causing foreign aid to drop by over 60 per cent between 2008 and 2010. The tourist sector, a major component of Madagascar’s economy, was severely hit. Hotels, tour operators, and related businesses experienced declines in revenue, triggering extensive layoffs from the hospitality industry and informal sectors that depended on tourism, deepening economic hardship and exacerbating poverty rates nationwide.

Following the ongoing coup, continued instability and protests are highly likely. Rajoelina has seen sporadic counterdemonstrations among supporters in Antananarivo, and these will likely be motivated to engage in pro-Rajoelina rallies in the capital. The military, which is currently attempting to restore order in the country, will highly likely respond to demonstrations with forceful crackdowns, which could trigger further unrest.

The broader protest movement, however, had Rajoelina’s resignation as one of its primary demands. There is a realistic possibility that the widespread Gen Z-led demonstrations will subside following the coup. CAPSAT’s apparent siding with protesters was almost certainly a calculated move to bring an end to the ongoing unrest. Furthermore, access to protest organiser Gen Z Madagascar’s Facebook page is currently restricted, something that could prevent widespread demonstrations from being organised.

However, the 2009 coup exacerbated economic difficulties, a spark for the current wave of unrest, and a further worsening of living conditions will likely increase the risk of unrest.