Suspected Coup Attempt Reported in Guinea-Bissau

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Guinea-Bissau has grappled with chronic instability since achieving independence from Portugal in 1973, marked by repeated coups and ongoing political power struggles. The country has experienced at least 10 successful or attempted coups, making it one of the most coup-prone countries in Africa.

Political instability has increased following the postponement of the elections, with the opposition regarding Embaló as an illegitimate president, claiming that his mandate expired on 27 February 2025. The two main opposition parties had been largely excluded from the elections, including the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which led Guinea-Bissau’s fight for independence.

The arrest of Embaló is highly likely indicative of a falling out between the presidency and the military, which is likely due to Embaló’s attempts to centralise authority and reshape the country’s security services while marginalising his political opponents. This apparent coup attempt marks the second in recent months, coming not long after another alleged coup attempt took place on 31 October, resulting in the arrests of several senior army officers. It is highly likely that the military, which holds considerable political power in Guinea-Bissau, used Dias’ claim to victory as a pretext to conduct the arrest.

Former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira has accused Embaló of simulating a coup so he could initiate a crackdown on the opposition. Dias’ claim of victory in the presidential election has highly likely provided Embaló with a pretext to portray him as attempting to forcefully take power. If simulated, Embaló will highly likely exploit the situation to arrest Dias and other opposition members.

Continued political instability is highly likely in the coming weeks. In the immediate days, the military will highly likely occupy key sites, including government buildings, media outlets, airports and border crossings, and critical infrastructure. It is highly likely that they will close the country’s borders and airspace, impose a curfew, and/or impose internet blocks while they attempt to re-establish order. Increased military checkpoints are highly likely on major routes and in the vicinity of government buildings and airports.

There will almost certainly be a heavy security presence in Bissau and other major cities in Guinea-Bissau over the coming days. The arrest of the Chief and Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces indicates that military factionalism is highly likely. Security forces will likely conduct further arrests of high-ranking individuals in the government and opposing factions within the military. There is a realistic possibility that military factions opposed to the army chief of staff will engage in armed resistance. A failed coup attempt in 1998, led by a dissident general, triggered a year-long civil war.

The apparent coup will almost certainly be perceived as exacerbating Guinea-Bissau’s political instability, and there is a realistic possibility that civil unrest breaks out in the coming weeks. After an alleged coup attempt in 2023 and the subsequent dissolution of parliament by Embaló, small-scale protests took place near the parliament building, with several people burning tyres. Guinea-Bissau’s security forces typically respond forcefully to protests, and the expected heavy security presence across the capital in the coming days will likely dissuade many from demonstrating. However, given the high tensions in the country following the dual victory claims, there is a realistic possibility that many will engage in rival protests.