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Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update

Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 5 May 2026 – 8 May 2026

Iran launched another wave of strikes against the UAE on 5 May. Emirati air defences were activated again on 8 May, with no immediate reports of damage.
On 5 May, President Trump announced that Project Freedom would be suspended, the US being highly likely constrained by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait suspending the use of their territory and airspace. However, reporting on 7 May indicates that these restrictions have been lifted. Should Project Freedom restart, this would likely lead to further Iranian strikes against the UAE.
On 7 May, Iranian forces launched missiles and attack drones at three US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US forces subsequently conducted strikes against the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas and the island of Qeshm.
As illustrated on 3-5 May and 7-8 May, escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE. The UAE has been highly likely targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and it is likely that Iranian ‘retaliation’ strikes will continue to prioritise the UAE in the short term due to these factors.
As of 8 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions have been reactivated in the UAE.

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Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption

From 8 April to 4 May, with the implementation of a temporary ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks continued at reduced rates, primarily originating from Iraqi territory. However, on 4 and 5 May, Iranian forces conducted combined missile and attack drone strikes against targets in the UAE, with damage also recorded in the Tibat area of Wilayat Bukha, Oman, near the Emirati border.

On 5 May, US President Donald Trump announced that the Project Freedom initiative, whereby the US military would provide direct support to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, would be suspended. President Trump claimed this decision was “[b]ased on the request of Pakistan and other Countries” and due to “Great Progress” being made toward a “Complete and Final Agreement” with Iran, but that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”.

On 7 May, Iranian forces launched missiles and attack drones at three US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated were all successfully intercepted. US forces subsequently conducted strikes against the city of Bandar Abbas and the Qeshm island. CENTCOM stated that it struck Iranian launch sites, command centres, and intelligence nodes in response to the Iranian attacks against the US naval vessels. The Iranian military issued a statement accusing the US of violating the ceasefire, while President Trump said that the ceasefire remains in place despite the escalation. Following the escalation, air defences were again activated in the UAE on 8 May, with no immediate reports of damage.

The Trump administration is reportedly engaged in ongoing negotiations with Tehran on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU). US officials have briefed that the MOU draft currently includes a declaration of an end to the war, and the start of a 30-day negotiation period (possibly to take place in Pakistan or Switzerland) for a detailed agreement to open the SoH, impose limits on Iran’s nuclear programme, and lift US sanctions.

As of 8 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions have been reactivated in the UAE.

Saudi Arabia

No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 5 and 8 May.

On 5 May, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait suspended the US military’s ability to use their bases and airspace to carry out Project Freedom, whereby the US would guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which was followed by Project Freedom’s suspension by the US. However, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were reported to have lifted these restrictions on 7 May.

At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 8 May, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.

Kuwait

No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 5 and 8 May.

At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 8 May, Kuwait’s airspace is open.

Bahrain

No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 5 and 8 May.

On 6 May, Amazon stated that its damaged data centres in Bahrain and the UAE will take months to repair.

At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 8 May, Bahrain’s airspace is open.

Qatar

No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 5 and 8 May.

At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 April.

As of 8 May, Qatar’s airspace is open.

UAE

Iran launched a wave of strikes against the UAE on 5 May. UAE officials stated that their forces were “dealing with missile and drone attacks originating from Iran”, without specifying the number of projectiles intercepted or the areas of the country that were targeted. Iran’s joint military command denied responsibility for the attacks on 4 and 5 May and pledged to attack the UAE if Emirati forces were to retaliate. No casualties were reported. On 8 May, the Ministry of Defence announced that air defence systems engaged 2 ballistic missiles and 3 attack drones launched from Iran, resulting in 3 injuries.

On 6 May, Amazon stated that its damaged data centres in Bahrain and the UAE will take months to repair.

At least 13 people have been killed and 230 injured in the UAE, as of 11:00 UTC on 8 May.

As of 8 May, the UAE’s airspace is open, but with aircraft permitted to use only designated routes following renewed Iranian missile and strike drone attacks.

Oman

No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 5 and 8 May.

At least three people have been killed and 18 injured in Oman, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 8 May, Oman’s airspace is open.

Regional Advisory

The continuing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, which escalated between 3 and 8 May, have almost certainly increased the risk of a return to full-scale conflict, with the US and Iran essentially in a stalemate. Washington almost certainly intends to pressure Iran to make concessions on the nuclear file via its blockade, due to an assessment that Iran only has a limited time remaining to store oil before it is forced to shut in its oil production. Tehran highly likely calculates that the US will be unable to tolerate a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the high economic and political costs.

Washington has temporarily backed down on Project Freedom, the likely trigger of the initial renewed Iranian strikes against the UAE on 4-5 May, which almost certainly represented the most significant escalation since the ceasefire’s implementation on 8 April. In addition to the escalation risks, the US was highly likely operationally constrained by a lack of regional support, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait suspending the use of their territory and airspace for US military operations. However, reporting on 7 May indicates that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have now lifted these restrictions, potentially reenabling US operational capability to carry out Project Freedom. Should Project Freedom restart, this would likely lead to further Iranian strikes against the UAE.

There is a high risk of tactical miscalculation and/or escalation occurring as the US and Iranian blockades continue, with retaliatory strikes unlikely to be confined to the immediate area of engagement or the maritime domain. As illustrated on 3-5 May and 7-8 May, escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE.

The UAE has been highly likely targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and Iranian ‘retaliation’ strikes will likely continue to prioritise the UAE in the short term. These factors include: Fujairah’s critical role as an oil export terminal which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, therefore reducing Iranian leverage through the Strait’s closure; the UAE’s increasingly close security partnership with Israel; and the likely increasing isolation of the UAE among the Gulf States following its withdrawal from OPEC and rivalry with Saudi Arabia. It is likely also that Tehran seeks to further isolate the UAE, likely now the most hostile Gulf State against Iran, from the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

If the current diplomatic track collapses, Washington may conclude that a return to conflict is the only means of forcing compliance from Tehran. If the US resumes strikes against Iran to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. Such attacks would likely involve Iran broadening its targeting to include assets and infrastructure that enable the Gulf States to export oil and gas by circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, such as oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Emirati port of Fujairah (as it did on 4 May).

Iran has repeatedly threatened that its forces are ready and prepared to resume full-scale attacks, with the military highly likely to have exploited the ceasefire to improve its offensive and defensive positions. Furthermore, Iranian forces have reportedly moved transporter erector launchers (TELs) out of range of some US long-range fires. The movement of TELs deeper into Iran may reduce the proportion of Iran’s ballistic missile force able to range Israeli territory, potentially increasing the likelihood that these systems are instead used against Gulf states if full-scale conflict resumes.

Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:

Jordan has warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.

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