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Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update

Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 8 May 2026 – 12 May 2026

On 10 May, Tehran sent through its response to the US-proposed draft agreement, which reportedly included several maximalist demands and minimal to no concessions. US President Donald Trump described the Iranian response as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and said that the “ceasefire with Iran is on massive life support”.
On 10 May, Kuwaiti authorities announced the detection of an unspecified number of “hostile drones”, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence announced that Emirati air defence systems successfully engaged two attack drones launched from Iran, and a bulk carrier was reported to have been struck by a drone in Qatar’s territorial waters.
On 11 May, US media reported that the UAE has secretly participated in the Iran conflict as an active combatant. The emerging reports will likely reinforce Iran’s prioritisation of the UAE as a target over other Gulf States.
On 12 May, Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior announced that the four individuals arrested early this month for attempting to infiltrate Bubiyan Island, Kuwait, were members of Iran’s IRGC. The attempted infiltration, if confirmed, highlights the ongoing threat of IRGC asymmetric and sabotage operations, particularly against high-value targets such as critical national infrastructure.
As recently demonstrated, escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE. The UAE has been highly likely targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and it is likely that Iranian ‘retaliation’ strikes will continue to prioritise the UAE in the immediate term due to these factors.
With the current diplomatic track facing major difficulties, Washington may conclude that a return to conflict is the only means of forcing compliance from Tehran. If the US resumes strikes against Iran to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East.
As of 12 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions were reactivated in the UAE following renewed Iranian attacks.

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Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption

Since the implementation of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on 8 April, which has de facto held since, the scale and frequency of Iranian attacks across the Middle East have significantly diminished. However, escalating disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and competing blockades by the US and Iran led to a renewal of Iranian strikes against the UAE on 4-5 May. While not currently being launched on a daily cadence, as before the 8 April ceasefire implementation, elevated rates of Iranian attacks have continued, largely against the UAE.

On 10 May, Tehran sent through its response to the US-proposed draft agreement. While the response’s specific details are not publicly known, Iranian media have variably reported the response as including an end to the war on all fronts (including Lebanon), an end to the US naval blockade, a lifting of US sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, war reparations, and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. The response reportedly omitted any mention of the nuclear file.

US President Donald Trump described the Iranian response as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and reportedly held a meeting with his national security team on 11 May to discuss next options, including a potential return to military operations. President Trump told reporters before the meeting that the “ceasefire with Iran is on massive life support”, with two US officials briefing that he is leaning toward a resumption of military action in an attempt to force concessions.

On 10 May, attacks were recorded in Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar. Kuwaiti authorities announced the detection of an unspecified number of “hostile drones”, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence announced that Emirati air defence systems successfully engaged two attack drones launched from Iran, and a bulk carrier was reported to have been struck by a drone in Qatar’s territorial waters.

On 11 May, US media reported that the UAE has secretly participated in the Iran conflict as an active combatant, citing “people familiar with the matter”. The report specifically highlighted an attack conducted by the UAE against

As of 12 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions were reactivated in the UAE following renewed Iranian attacks, but most scheduled flights continue to operate from Emirati airports.

Saudi Arabia

No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 8 and 12 May.

At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 12 May, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.

Kuwait

On 10 May, Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence announced that it had detected an unspecified number of “hostile drones” at dawn, which “were dealt with in accordance with established procedures.” Previously, on 25 April, two northern border posts in Kuwait were attacked by drones originating from Iraqi territory. The origin of the 10 May attempted drone attack remains unconfirmed.

On 12 May, Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior announced that the four individuals arrested early this month for attempting to infiltrate Bubiyan Island, Kuwait, were members of Iran’s IRGC. The island hosts Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, which was attacked previously by Iran earlier in the conflict. The port is under construction as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with the accusation from Kuwait notably preceding a scheduled visit by President Trump to China on 14-15 May. The attempted infiltration, if confirmed, highlights the ongoing threat of IRGC asymmetric and sabotage operations, particularly against high-value targets such as critical national infrastructure.

At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 12 May, Kuwait’s airspace is open.

Bahrain

No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 8 and 12 May.

At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 12 May, Bahrain’s airspace is open.

Qatar

A Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier sailing from Abu Dhabi, UAE, to Mesaieed Port, Qatar, was reported to have been struck by a drone on the morning of 10 May in Qatar’s territorial waters. The drone strike led to a limited fire on board the vessel, with no injuries reported. No attacks against Qatar’s terrestrial territory were recorded between 8 and 12 May.

While Pakistan has been the leading mediator between the US and Iran since the outbreak of the conflict on 28 February, Qatari officials have recently been increasingly involved in behind-the-scenes mediation efforts. On 8 May, US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani in Washington, D.C. On 9 May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff also met with Prime Minister al-Thani in Miami.

At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 April.

As of 12 May, Qatar’s airspace is open.

UAE

On 10 May, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence announced that Emirati air defence systems successfully engaged two attack drones launched from Iran.

Also on 10 May, authorities announced that the large fire and smoke visible in the Al Jaddaf area of Dubai was caused by a boat catching fire while docked in Dubai Creek, with no injuries reported. The announcement followed public speculation on social media that the smoke resulted from an Iranian attack. There is no available evidence suggesting that the boat fire was caused by an Iranian attack, with the intensity of the smoke being attributed to the vessel’s fibreglass construction.

At least 13 people have been killed and 230 injured in the UAE, as of 11:00 UTC on 8 May.

As of 12 May, the UAE’s airspace is open, but with aircraft restricted to using only designated routes following renewed Iranian attacks.

Oman

No attacks have been reported in Oman between 8 and 12 May.

At least three people have been killed and 18 injured in Oman, as of 14:35 UTC on 5 May.

As of 12 May, Oman’s airspace is open.

Regional Advisory

The continuing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, which escalated between 3 and 8 May, have almost certainly increased the risk of a return to full-scale conflict, with the US and Iran essentially in a stalemate. Washington almost certainly intends to pressure Iran to make concessions on the nuclear file via its blockade, due to an assessment that Iran only has a limited time remaining to store oil before it is forced to shut in its oil production. Tehran highly likely calculates that the US will be unable to tolerate a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the high economic and political costs.

There is a high risk of tactical miscalculation and/or escalation occurring as the US and Iranian blockades continue, with retaliatory strikes unlikely to be confined to the immediate area of engagement or the maritime domain. As illustrated on 3-5 May and 7-8 May, escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE. Moreover, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media has directly threatened that any attack on Iranian vessels will “result in a heavy attack on one of the American centres in the region”.

The UAE has been highly likely targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and Iranian ‘retaliation’ strikes will likely continue to prioritise the UAE in the short term. The emerging reports of the UAE’s direct involvement in the conflict as an active combatant against Iran will likely result in the increased prioritisation of the UAE as a target. Other contributing factors for the increased targeting of the UAE include: Fujairah’s critical role as an oil export terminal which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, therefore reducing Iranian leverage through the Strait’s closure; the UAE’s increasingly close security partnership with Israel; and the likely increasing isolation of the UAE among the Gulf States following its withdrawal from OPEC and rivalry with Saudi Arabia. It is likely also that Tehran seeks to further isolate the UAE, likely now the most hostile Gulf State against Iran, from the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

With the current diplomatic track facing major difficulties, Washington may conclude that a return to conflict is the only means of forcing compliance from Tehran. If the US resumes strikes against Iran to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. Such attacks would likely involve Iran broadening its targeting to include assets and infrastructure that enable the Gulf States to export oil and gas by circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, such as oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Emirati port of Fujairah (as it did on 4 May).

Iran has repeatedly threatened that its forces are ready and prepared to resume full-scale attacks, with the military highly likely to have exploited the ceasefire to improve its offensive and defensive positions. Furthermore, Iranian forces have reportedly moved transporter erector launchers (TELs) out of range of some US long-range fires. The movement of TELs deeper into Iran may reduce the proportion of Iran’s ballistic missile force able to range Israeli territory, potentially increasing the likelihood that these systems are instead used against Gulf states if full-scale conflict resumes.

Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:

Jordan has warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.

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