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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 17 Apr 2026 – 21 Apr 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
- Since 8 April, with the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks have continued at far lower rates, with unconfirmed points of origin.
- US President Donald Trump stated on 20 April that the deadline for the two-week ceasefire is now Wednesday evening (22 April), Washington time.
- The ceasefire came under significant pressure and has been considered on the verge of collapse following continuing disputes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- As of 21 April, it remains unclear whether further potential talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, between the US and Iran will go ahead. US Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Islamabad imminently, with Iranian participation unconfirmed.
- If a ceasefire extension is not agreed upon before its expiration or potential talks result in a total breakdown in negotiations, there is a high likelihood of kinetic activity returning to pre-ceasefire levels. All parties have likely exploited the ceasefire to improve their offensive and defensive positions.
- On 20 April, the UAE’s State Security Agency announced that it dismantled a “terrorist organisation” and arrested its member over an alleged plot which included plans for “coordinated terrorist and sabotage attacks”.
- As of 21 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure.
Since 8 April, with the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks have continued at far lower rates with unconfirmed points of origin. US President Donald Trump stated on 20 April that the deadline for the two-week ceasefire is now Wednesday evening (22 April), Washington time.
The ceasefire came under significant pressure and has been considered on the verge of collapse following continuing disputes in the Strait of Hormuz. On 17 April, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened for the remaining period of the ceasefire, following the agreement of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. However, President Trump subsequently announced that the US ‘blockade’ of the Strait against Iranian vessels would continue. This led to Iran resuming attacks against vessels in the Strait, and the US seizing an Iran-flagged vessel, placing significant pressure on the ceasefire.
As of 21 April, it remains unclear whether further potential talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, between the US and Iran will go ahead. Iranian state television issued an on-screen alert on 21 April saying that no delegation from Iran has so far visited Islamabad, although it is expected that US Vice President JD Vance will travel to Islamabad.
As of 21 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 17 and 21 April.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 21 April, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 17 and 21 April.
Kuwait has reportedly declared a force majeure on oil shipments from 17 April, citing the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 21 April, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 17 and 21 April.
On 19 April, Bahrain’s king stated that the country will review the citizenship of anyone threatening Bahrain’s “security and stability”. A similar policy in Kuwait has led to at least tens of thousands of individuals losing their Kuwaiti nationality.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 21 April, Bahrain’s airspace is open. However, there is still a high rate of flight cancellations. Confirm your flight with your airline before going to the airport; services are limited and can change at short notice.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 17 and 21 April.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 21 April, while the airspace is unused by almost all commercial carriers, Qatar Airways flights continue to operate several international routes with special permission.
UAE
No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 17 and 21 April.
On 20 April, the UAE’s State Security Agency announced that it dismantled a “terrorist organisation” and arrested its member over an alleged plot which included plans for “coordinated terrorist and sabotage attacks”. Local media claims that the investigation revealed alleged links with Iranian regime ideology. There is highly likely an elevated threat of asymmetric attacks being conducted in the UAE as a result of the conflict, including terrorist attack, sabotage, and targeted killings.
At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 21 April, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
No attacks have been reported in Oman between 17 and 21 April.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 21 April, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
While there remain heavy incentives for both the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, pressure from IRGC hardliners in Iran has likely constrained the ability of chief negotiators like Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, to engage in constructive negotiations. IRGC hardliners like Major General Ahmad Vahidi now likely exercise significant control over the regime, and likely calculate that it is preferable for Iran to escalate a confrontation with the US rather than be seen as conceding to the US. However, other Iranian officials continue to press for talks, and should the prospective Islamabad talks go ahead, these could either quickly realise an extension of the ceasefire or a total collapse of it.
If a ceasefire extension is not agreed upon before its expiration or potential talks result in a total breakdown in negotiations, there is a high likelihood of kinetic activity returning to pre-ceasefire levels. All parties have likely exploited the ceasefire to improve their offensive and defensive positions. In response to a cessation of high-intensity strikes in Iran, Iranian military units have likely regrouped, dispersed remaining assets, and repositioned forces to enhance survivability against future strikes, while accelerating efforts to restore operational effectiveness.
Iran claims that Israeli attacks in Lebanon constituted a violation of the truce it agreed with the US. The status of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which is set to expire on 26 April, likely plays a key role in either strengthening or weakening the Iran-US ceasefire. If the Lebanon ceasefire is abided by, it will almost certainly increase the likelihood of the US-Iran ceasefire holding, as well as a broader peace agreement being reached. Conversely, if the Lebanon ceasefire breaks down, this would likely increase broader tensions that impact the US-Iran ceasefire.
Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Jordan has warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” were used to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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