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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 14 Apr 2026 – 17 Apr 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
- Since 8 April, with the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks have continued at far lower rates, with unconfirmed points of origin.
- US officials have briefed that further direct in-person talks are likely before the expiration of the ceasefire. A Pakistani delegation visited Tehran on 16 April, and calls and draft proposal exchanges have reportedly continued remotely between the US and Iran.
- Both Iran and the US almost certainly remain incentivised to continue negotiations in the immediate term, although the ceasefire remains highly fragile and could break down rapidly with minimal advanced warning.
- If a ceasefire extension is not agreed upon in the coming days, there is a high likelihood of kinetic activity returning to pre-ceasefire levels. All parties have likely exploited the ceasefire to improve their offensive and defensive positions.
- On 16 April, US President Donald Trump stated that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. The status of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire likely plays a key role in either strengthening or weakening the Iran-US ceasefire.
- On 17 April, it was reported that Dubai Police confirmed in official internal documents that “electronic monitoring operations” were used to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group. The individual who sent the video was then reportedly located, lured to a meeting point, and arrested by police.
- As of 17 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure.
Since 8 April, with the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks have continued at far lower rates with unconfirmed points of origin. The two-week ceasefire remains in effect and is due to expire on 21 April.
Sources indicated on 14 April that a second round of post-ceasefire talks may occur later in the week, with US officials further briefing that further direct in-person talks are likely before the expiration of the ceasefire. A Pakistani delegation visited Tehran on 16 April, and calls and draft proposal exchanges have reportedly continued remotely between the US and Iran.
On 16 April, President Trump stated that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, starting at 21:00 UTC. Iran welcomed the ceasefire and claimed it was part of the Iran-US ceasefire understandings. The Lebanese army has claimed to observe multiple Israeli violations of the ceasefire since its implementation, with Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, stating that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will continue to combat the presence of Hezbollah south of the Litani River.
As of 17 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 14 and 17 April.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 17 April, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 14 and 17 April. Kuwait International Airport’s (KWI / OKKK) main passenger terminals reportedly remains closed following damage from attack drones. On 16 April, the Kuwait Banking Association announced that banks across the country have resumed full operational capacity.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 17 April, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 14 and 17 April. Bahrain has put an officer from its National Security Agency on trial over the death of a detainee, who had been arrested over charges of forming a terrorist cell linked to Hezbollah.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 17 April, Bahrain’s airspace is open. However, there is still a high rate of flight cancellations. Confirm your flight with your airline before going to the airport; services are limited and can change at short notice.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 14 and 17 April.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 17 April, while the airspace is unused by almost all commercial carriers, Qatar Airways flights continue to operate several international routes with special permission.
UAE
No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 14 and 17 April. On 15 April, authorities announced that they would reopen schools on 20 April. On 16 April, it was reported that Dubai Police confirmed in official internal documents that “electronic monitoring operations” were used to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group. The individual who sent the video was then reportedly located, lured to a meeting point, and arrested by police.
At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 17 April, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
No attacks have been reported in Oman between 14 and 17 April.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 16:45 UTC on 15 April.
As of 17 April, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Despite the failure of the Islamabad post-ceasefire talks to produce a peace agreement, neither side has declared an end to talks or the ongoing two-week truce. Both Iran and the US almost certainly remain incentivised to continue negotiations in the immediate term. Reporting indicates that it is likely that at least a US-Iran ceasefire extension will be reached before its current expiration on 21 April, although the ceasefire remains highly fragile and could break down rapidly with little notice.
If a ceasefire extension is not agreed upon in the coming days before 21 April, there is a high likelihood of kinetic activity returning to pre-ceasefire levels. All parties have likely exploited the ceasefire to improve their offensive and defensive positions. In response to a cessation of high-intensity strikes in Iran, Iranian military units have likely regrouped, dispersed remaining assets, and repositioned forces to enhance survivability against future strikes, while accelerating efforts to restore operational effectiveness.
Iran claims that Israeli attacks in Lebanon constituted a violation of the truce it agreed with the US. The status of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire likely plays a key role in either strengthening or weakening the Iran-US ceasefire. If the Lebanon ceasefire is abided by, it will almost certainly increase the likelihood of the US-Iran ceasefire holding, as well as a broader peace agreement being reached. Conversely, if the Lebanon ceasefire breaks down, this would likely increase broader tensions that impact the US-Iran ceasefire.
A potential second round of direct talks would highly likely face the same key divides in negotiating positions, with Tehran unlikely to make significant concessions on its military capabilities. However, there is a realistic possibility of Tehran performatively moving on the issue of support for proxy forces, and it is likely that Tehran is willing to make concessions on the nuclear file that are greater than those offered in the Oman-mediated talks, which preceded the current conflict.
Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
- Jordan has warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” were used to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
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