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Gulf States:
US Midterm Elections Raise Prospect of Renewed Military Action Against Iran
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 30 October – 3 November 2026
- The US midterm elections are taking place on 3 November, potentially removing a key political constraint on renewed US military operations against Iran, with Gulf governments reportedly briefed on possible strikes as early as 4 November.
- Intensified Qatari-mediated negotiations between the US and Iran have continued without agreement, with Iran’s negotiating delegation leaving Doha on 1 November.
- On 2 November, US forces reportedly conducted limited strikes against Iranian radars and air defences on Qeshm Island, after Iranian forces were claimed to have fired surface-to-air missiles at a US fighter jet. Iranian retaliation has not yet been observed.
- Houthi missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia have continued at a high intensity, with interceptions reported over Riyadh, the Mecca and Medina regions, the Eastern Province and southern Saudi Arabia. On 1 November, the Saudi-led coalition launched an operation targeting Houthi military-support infrastructure, including strikes on Ras Isa port in Hodeidah.
- As of 3 November, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman are open. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh continues to operate limited domestic and international flights, although many foreign airlines continue to suspend services, and Saudi Arabia’s Jazan and Najran airports remain closed.
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Situation Update: Potential US Strikes Against Iran Raise Concerns Over Regional Escalation
The US midterm elections are taking place on 3 November, with US President Donald Trump having previously claimed that the US would not attack Iran before the elections. Gulf governments have reportedly been briefed on possible strikes as early as 4 November, and on 1-2 November, reports indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was pressing Trump to launch a short, intensive air campaign against Iran immediately after the elections. However, Trump stated on 2 November that he was in no hurry to resume strikes, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on 31 October that no decision had been made.
On 2 November, US forces reportedly struck radar installations and surface-to-air missile launch sites on Iran’s Qeshm Island, after Iranian forces were claimed to have fired surface-to-air missiles at a US fighter jet. US officials described the limited strikes as defensive. The same day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have downed or captured three US drones near the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), although this remains unverified.
On 31 October, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered an immediate response without geographical limitations to any renewed US-Israeli campaign, and for target lists to be updated to bring all US and Israeli assets within range. Senior Iranian military and IRGC officials also threatened pre-emptive operations, strikes against US warships and a conflict extending beyond West Asia.
Qatari-mediated negotiations have continued without agreement. On 31 October, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced a revised proposal to reopen the SoH within two days, conditional on the lifting of US restrictions on Iranian oil exports, the release of frozen assets and recognition of a new shipping corridor agreed with Oman. Iran’s negotiating delegation left Doha on 1 November after three days of talks without an agreement, although Tehran stated that indirect exchanges were continuing, and on 2 November, President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that Khamenei had authorised Iran’s government to conduct negotiations with Washington.
Intensified attacks against commercial shipping have continued. On 30 October, a Qatari-owned LNG carrier was struck by unidentified projectiles south of Iran’s Lavan Island, causing a fire. A tanker was reportedly struck by two projectiles east of Ras al-Khafji, Saudi Arabia, on 1-2 November, and on 2 November, an attack against the Indian-flagged vessel off Limah, Oman, killed one sailor.
Houthi missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia have continued at a high intensity, with interceptions reported over Riyadh, the Mecca and Medina regions, the Eastern Province and across southern Saudi Arabia between 30 October and 3 November. The Houthis claimed drone attacks against King Fahd International Airport in Dammam and military aviation infrastructure in Jazan, although these claims remain unconfirmed.
On 1 November, the Saudi-led coalition stated it had launched an operation targeting Houthi resources used to support its ballistic missile and drone programmes, with Houthi media reporting strikes against Ras Isa port and a commercial vessel, an oil facility in Bajil and the medical faculty of Hodeidah University in Hodeidah Governorate. On 31 October, Syria confirmed preliminary discussions on joining the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.
In Yemen, the Houthis launched renewed ground offensives south of Taiz on 30 October and reportedly captured Al-Maqatirah Fortress on 31 October, while Houthi ballistic missiles targeted Aden International Airport and the Al-Maashiq presidential palace on 30 October. On 2 November, Yemeni government forces reported around 60 civilian casualties in an alleged Houthi missile strike on a market south of Taiz.
As of 3 November, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman are open. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh continues to operate limited domestic and international flights, although many foreign airlines continue to suspend services, and Saudi Arabia’s Jazan and Najran airports remain closed.
Jordan
No attacks have been reported in Jordan between 30 October and 3 November.
As of 3 November, Jordan’s airspace is open.
Saudi Arabia
On the evening of 30 October, the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a ballistic missile targeting southern Saudi Arabia and drones over the Riyadh and Medina regions. On 31 October, the coalition reported intercepting drones over the Eastern Province, southern Saudi Arabia and the Riyadh region, with falling interception debris recorded in Riyadh causing no reported injuries. Civil Defence also issued early warnings for Najran and Jazan.
On 1 November, the coalition reported intercepting a ballistic missile and drone targeting southern Saudi Arabia, while early warnings were issued for Abha, Khamis Mushait and Jazan. Iranian state media claimed that a Yemeni strike caused a major fire at an industrial complex in Dammam, although this remains unconfirmed. Saudi Civil Defence separately reported extinguishing fires at two air-conditioning maintenance and storage facilities in Dammam, with no injuries recorded.
On 2 November, the coalition reported intercepting another Houthi ballistic missile targeting southern Saudi Arabia and two drones over the Riyadh region. Civil Defence issued six early warnings covering Khamis Mushait, Taif, Abha, Jazan and Najran. The Houthis also claimed to have conducted two drone attacks against King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, and strikes against an early-warning radar and a military transport aircraft at Jazan airport over the preceding 48 hours, which have not been independently confirmed.
As of 3 November, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh is operating domestic and some international flights by national carriers, with some flights normally serving Riyadh also operating from Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz International Airport in Qassim. King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam are operational with some delays and cancellations. Many foreign airlines continue to suspend services to Riyadh and Dammam, with some suspensions extending until late November. Abha’s airport remains only partially operational, and Jazan and Najran airports remain closed.
Kuwait
No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 30 October and 3 November.
As of 3 November, Kuwait’s airspace is open.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 30 October and 3 November.
As of 3 November, Bahrain’s airspace is open.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 30 October and 3 November.
As of 3 November, Qatar’s airspace is open.
UAE
Excluding attacks in Emirati waters, no attacks have been reported in the UAE between 30 October and 3 November.
As of 3 November, the UAE’s airspace is open.
Oman
Excluding attacks in Omani waters, no attacks have been reported in Oman between 30 October and 3 November.
As of 3 November, Oman’s airspace is open.
Regional Advisory
With the US midterm elections taking place on 3 November, a key political constraint on renewed US military operations against Iran is highly likely to be removed. The indicators and warnings (I&W) observed in recent weeks, including reported US-Israeli strike planning, the withdrawal of US military personnel from regional bases, diplomatic drawdowns and reported US warnings to Gulf governments on possible strikes from 4 November, almost certainly indicate that preparations for renewed operations are at an advanced stage.
With diplomacy highly likely to remain deadlocked, observed I&W suggest that renewed US strikes against Iran are highly likely in the coming weeks and could be authorised imminently. However, the timing remains uncertain, and Washington may instead opt to maintain pressure through its blockade without immediately resorting to major military operations.
Negotiations have continued to encounter difficulties, with neither party appearing willing to make the concessions required to reach a substantive agreement. Tehran likely considers another round of conflict preferable to making the demanded concessions, while IRGC hardliners are highly unlikely to accept any terms that could be perceived as surrender. Conversely, accepting Iran’s offer to reopen the SoH in exchange for sanctions relief and the lifting of the blockade would require Washington to relinquish its primary leverage without securing the nuclear concessions used to justify the war. Pezeshkian’s confirmation that Khamenei has authorised negotiations is likely partly intended to signal flexibility and ward off potential strikes, but is ultimately unlikely to result in Tehran making demanded concessions.
The US strikes against Qeshm Island, conducted without public announcement and described as defensive, are consistent with a pattern of limited US strikes against Iranian capabilities around the SoH, and do not appear to have triggered significant Iranian retaliation. However, with preparations for renewed major military operations highly likely to be at an advanced stage, and Iran having threatened pre-emptive action in response to indications of an imminent attack, even limited engagements could significantly increase the risk of miscalculation.
Renewed major operations would almost certainly result in severe Iranian retaliation across the region. Iranian officials have explicitly threatened US military installations and personnel, regional energy infrastructure, shipping, undersea cables, telecommunications infrastructure, data centres and other strategic infrastructure associated with US interests. Iran has also almost certainly exploited the cessation of major conflict to reconstitute its long-range strike capabilities, likely enabling high-volume, layered missile and drone attacks capable of overstretching or saturating regional air defences, which have likely been depleted by previous Iranian strikes, with Saudi air defences facing additional pressure from the ongoing Houthi campaign.
Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia have continued at a high intensity, with a notable concentration of drone attacks against Riyadh and the Eastern Province during the reporting period. The Houthis’ claimed targeting of an early-warning radar and a military transport aircraft in Jazan, following previous claimed attacks against military aviation at Najran Airport and King Khalid Air Base, likely indicates an emerging effort to degrade Saudi air defence and military aviation capabilities supporting operations in Yemen, which may be enabled by previously reported Houthi use of Russian satellite imagery. However, the Houthi claims have not been verified.
Repeated interceptions over the Mecca and Medina regions are likely associated with the Houthis targeting strategic locations, including energy infrastructure in Yanbu and Rabigh. There are no confirmed indications that the Houthis have deliberately targeted the two holy cities of Mecca or Medina.
The Saudi-led coalition’s operation against Houthi logistics infrastructure, including strikes against Ras Isa port and oil facilities in Hodeidah Governorate, was likely intended to disrupt Houthi fuel supplies and degrade logistics networks. However, strikes against Hodeidah’s port infrastructure and other high-value targets (HVTs) in locations such as Sanaa are highly likely to result in Houthi retaliation against Saudi energy infrastructure and airports, and the conflict is likely to continue escalating in the short term.
Travellers and expatriates are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Jordanian authorities have warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group.
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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