Alert+

Tigrayan Forces Seize Mekelle Airport in Ethiopia

Tigrayan Defence Forces Seize Mekelle Airport Following Renewed Clashes

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 11:00 UTC 23 September 2026

Early on 23 September, Tigrayan Defence Forces (TDF), the military wing of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), seized Alula Aba Nega International Airport in Mekelle. Ethiopian Airlines subsequently suspended flights to Mekelle, Axum, and Shire.

The airport’s capture follows the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on 21 September, a coalition aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing a transitional administration across Ethiopia. The alliance includes the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and TPLF, alongside four smaller groups. The coalition includes former enemies: Fano militias fought alongside the government against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 Tigray conflict but have clashed with the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) since 2023.

Relations between the federal government and the TPLF have deteriorated sharply over the past year since a Debretsion Gebremichael-led faction seized TPLF administrative offices in March 2025, which removed the federally appointed Getachew Reda from power. Addis Ababa revoked the TPLF’s legal status as a political party in May 2025, leaving Tigray outside the normal institutional framework. In May 2026, the TPLF reinstated Tigray’s pre-war Regional Council and elected Debretsion as regional president, displacing the Interim Regional Administration. Tigray was then excluded from the 1 June 2026 national elections.

Direct clashes between the ENDF and TDF took place in January and August 2026, the most significant fighting since the end of the 2020-22 conflict. Since February 2026, the ENDF has deployed heavy artillery and troops along Tigray’s borders, and there have been widespread fears of an escalation between government and Tigrayan forces.

In recent weeks, the ENDF has conducted several drone strikes across Tigray, including in Mekelle. One 20 September strike hit a humanitarian aid convoy carrying 41 tonnes of food to displaced people. On 18 September, preceding the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, the ENDF claimed to have captured nearly 300 TDF fighters.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Mekelle Airport Seizure Raises Risk of Renewed Tigray War

A return to civil war in Tigray is now highly likely. The TPLF have declared the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray conflict, “effectively dead”, with Debretsion having consistently criticised its implementation. The capture of Mekelle’s airport almost certainly marks a significant escalation in tensions, has made international news and represents a direct challenge to the federal government. While clashes have taken place in recent months, the loss of the airport will almost certainly force a response from federal forces, which risks escalating into full-scale conflict between the ENDF and TDF.

The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival coalition covers groups in Ethiopia’s Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. Amhara and Oromo forces have engaged in conflict with the ENDF since 2023 and 2018, respectively. However, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), active in the Somali region, declared a ceasefire in 2018 and transitioned to a legal political party; its participation in the alliance likely signals a further move away from the 2018 settlement, raising the prospect of a return to armed activity.

While it is likely that the alliance is broadly symbolic, as the members have disparate interests, it almost certainly increases the risk that a renewed Tigray conflict develops into a broader, multi-front coalition aligned against the federal government. The coalition could enable the TPLF to coordinate militarily with armed groups across multiple regions of Ethiopia, escalating localised clashes and overstretching Ethiopian forces, with future deployments to Tigray potentially resulting in security gaps in other parts of the country.

Eritrea’s alleged alignment with the TPLF and Fano militias almost certainly raises the risk that renewed conflict in Tigray escalates into a regional war. The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea of “financing, mobilising, and directing” Fano forces. In January 2026, Addis Ababa claimed to have intercepted Eritrean ammunition moving through Tigray to Fano groups. Eritrea has denied supporting the TPLF or Fano. However, there is a realistic possibility that a renewed Tigray conflict would draw in Eritrea, potentially resulting in direct clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces along the northern border.

A return to conflict almost certainly threatens healthcare across the region. Tigray’s health system was severely degraded in the 2020 to 2022 Tigray conflict. Assessments by the Tigray Health Bureau and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) found that approximately 78 per cent of health centres and 60 per cent of hospitals in Tigray were partially or fully damaged, and only around one per cent of medical equipment was left intact. The healthcare system has failed to recover since, and a return to conflict in Tigray would highly likely result in drone strikes targeting humanitarian convoys and healthcare facilities across Tigray.

Ethiopian Airlines is the only carrier serving Mekelle, Axum, and Shire. The cancellation of flights to and from Tigray has limited exit from Tigray to overland routes, which are vulnerable to checkpoints, military activity, and disruption should hostilities escalate. Additionally, they require movement through conflict-affected areas such as Amhara, increasing travellers’ exposure to checkpoints, delays, and potential armed clashes.

Renewed conflict in Tigray would almost certainly increase internal displacement and result in refugee flows to neighbouring countries. Additionally, it will highly likely result in a heightened security posture in Addis Ababa, including checkpoints and police or military deployments. Tighter scrutiny is highly likely around government sites, airports, hotels, diplomatic areas, and transport hubs.

Additionally, there is a large Tigrayan community in Addis Ababa, raising the risk of anti-government demonstrations. During the Tigray war, Addis Ababa was affected by the November 2021 nationwide state of emergency, which gave authorities powers to impose curfews, restrict media activity, and detain suspects as Tigrayan forces advanced south. A renewed conflict almost certainly raises the risk of internet restrictions and curfews across the country.

Travel and Safety Guidance for Ethiopia

Avoid all non-essential travel to the Tigray region. Fully assess any travel outside of Addis Ababa.
Travellers situated in Mekelle or the broader Tigray region should follow shelter-in-place orders and advisories.
Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if situated in Tigray.
Sign up for government/embassy alerts if situated in, or planning to travel to, Ethiopia.
Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure in Tigray, which may constitute potential targets.
Adhere to all instructions issued by the authorities.
Expect the security situation in the region to remain unstable in the immediate future.
If in Tigray, prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
Closely monitor alerts from a security provider, if available, trusted local news reports and government alerts.