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Maritime Clashes Keep Gulf States at Risk of Renewed Strikes
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 15 September 2026 – 18 September 2026
- Conflict in the maritime domain has continued, with US forces destroying Iranian fast attack craft, and the IRGC claiming to have disabled a Togo-flagged tanker on 17 September. The IRGC also claimed to have downed two US MQ-9 Reaper drones on 16 and 17 September. Kinetic exchanges in the maritime domain have repeatedly led to Iranian strikes against targets in regional states.
- No Iranian ballistic missile or drone attack against a regional state has been reported since 8-9 September, the longest such interval since attacks resumed on 28 August. This likely reflects deliberate Iranian calibration rather than de-escalation, and strikes against US facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain are likely to resume with minimal warning following any US strikes against Iran.
- On 17 September, US President Donald Trump stated that he faced a “big decision” over whether to “go in and annihilate” the Iranian regime, with force levels in the Middle East to be maintained until the end of the year.
- Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia are highly likely to continue, with the Houthis increasingly attempting attacks against targets beyond southern Saudi Arabia. One person was killed by falling debris in the Taif region on 17 September.
- Saudi airstrikes have not yet targeted Sanaa, Hodeidah city, or senior Houthi leadership, in a likely calibrated attempt to avoid a major escalation in Houthi long-range fires. Such strikes are likely a key indicator and warning of escalated Houthi attacks against targets such as Riyadh or Jeddah.
- As of 18 September, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman are open. However, Jazan, Abha, and Najran airports in southern Saudi Arabia have recently been regularly closed due to the Houthi threat.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran-US Tensions Persist as Gulf Security Risks Continue
Reports on 15 September indicated that US forces destroyed two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fast attack craft off Hormozgan province on 14 September, after the boats attempted to seize a US Navy unmanned surface vessel (USV) operating in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Iranian state media had reported the incident as strikes against two fishing vessels. It was the first formally announced US kinetic action since strikes against five Iranian crude carriers on 8 September, although an Iranian cargo vessel reported being struck by an unidentified projectile on 13 September. No Iranian ballistic missile or drone attack against targets in a regional state has been reported since the 8-9 September attack against Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
On 17 September, the IRGC Navy stated that it had struck and disabled a Togo-flagged oil tanker. The IRGC separately claimed to have downed two US MQ-9 Reaper drones on 16 and 17 September. Iranian state media reported that several explosions were heard on Qeshm Island on 15 September, which local sources stated appeared to have come from the direction of the sea.
Reports published on 16 September indicated that CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper had hosted the military chiefs of Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt at a closed conference in Germany, the first such gathering since the outbreak of the conflict. Moreover, US President Donald Trump is expected to meet the leaders of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on 22 September.
On 17 September, Trump stated that he faced a “big decision” over whether to “go in and annihilate” the Iranian regime, adding that “anything could happen”. US officials briefed that Trump and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth have ordered US forces in the Middle East to maintain current force levels until the end of the year to remain ready for a potential return to full-scale combat operations.
On 16 September, coalition spokesperson Major General Turki al-Maliki stated that Saudi air defences had intercepted a Houthi drone south of Mecca the previous evening, describing the security of the two holy mosques as a red line. The Houthis denied targeting Mecca. The Houthis claimed further strikes against an Aramco facility at Yanbu and King Khalid Airbase later on 16 September. On 17 September, Saudi Civil Defence stated that one person was killed and two others injured by falling debris from an intercepted Houthi drone in the Taif region.
In Yemen, Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) strikes have continued against primarily front-line areas, notably Mocha, with the Houthis claiming, for example, 40 strikes across Taiz, Marib and Hodeidah governorates on 16 September. At least 63 combatants were reportedly killed in fighting in the 24 hours to 17 September. A Yemeni government military official stated that 23 internationally recognised government (IRG) troops were killed in Houthi missile and drone attacks and in ground fighting in Taiz and Lahj, while Houthi military sources reported 40 fighters killed in Saudi airstrikes and clashes in Taiz. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed the downing of an RSAF F-15 over Marib on 16 September, with the Houthis releasing claimed footage of the incident.
Reports were published on 16 September that US officials met with a Houthi delegation in Muscat on 13 September, where the Houthis reportedly stated they would not target US, Israeli or other vessels aside from Saudi Arabia’s and remained committed to the May 2025 ceasefire.
As of 18 September, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman are open. However, Jazan, Abha, and Najran airports in southern Saudi Arabia have recently been regularly closed due to the Houthi threat.
Saudi Arabia
On 16 September, Saudi-led coalition spokesperson Major General Turki al-Maliki stated that Saudi air defences had intercepted a Houthi UAV south of Mecca the previous evening, describing the security of the two holy mosques as a red line. The Houthis denied targeting Mecca. The Houthis claimed further strikes against an Aramco facility at Yanbu and King Khalid Airbase later on 16 September.
On 17 September, Saudi Civil Defence stated that one person was killed and two others injured by falling debris from an intercepted Houthi drone in the Taif region, the first reported fatality in Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks during the current escalation. Early warning alerts were additionally activated in Abha and Khamis Mushait on 17 September.
Two regional officials briefed on 16 September that Saudi Arabia is running low on missile interceptors and has requested air defence deployments from France, the UK, Pakistan and Egypt. Turkish and Pakistani officials briefed on 16 September that Saudi Arabia had not requested support through the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on 7 August, in response to the Houthi escalation. However, Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, stated on 17 September that Pakistan would go “to any extent” to defend Saudi Arabia against attack and described Islamabad’s security commitment to the kingdom as “unconditional”. Chaudhry did not confirm whether Riyadh had requested additional Pakistani forces, air defence systems, or direct participation in operations against the Houthis.
As of 18 September, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open. However, Saudi Arabia’s Jazan, Abha, and Najran airports have been regularly closed due to Houthi attacks. High levels of flight delays were observed at Jeddah King Abdulaziz International (JED) on 15 September as a result of early warning alerts.
Kuwait
No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 15 and 18 September.
As of 18 September, Kuwait’s airspace is open.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 15 and 18 September.
As of 18 September, Bahrain’s airspace is open.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 15 and 18 September.
As of 18 September, Qatar’s airspace is open.
UAE
No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 15 and 18 September.
As of 18 September, the UAE’s airspace is open.
Oman
Excluding attacks in Omani waters, no attacks have been reported in Oman between 15 and 18 September.
As of 18 September, Oman’s airspace is open.
Regional Advisory
The absence of Iranian ballistic missile or drone attacks against targets in a regional state since 8-9 September is the longest such interval since attacks resumed on 28 August. This likely reflects deliberate Iranian calibration rather than a shift towards de-escalation, with Iran sustaining attacks in the maritime domain. Iranian strikes against US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain in particular are likely to resume with minimal warning following US strikes against Iranian territory or tankers.
Attacks in the maritime domain are likely to continue triggering further strike exchanges, with neither side likely to de-escalate without surrendering a key source of leverage. The IRGC’s attempt to seize a US Navy USV on 14 September and its claimed disabling of a Togo-flagged tanker on 17 September indicate that Tehran is continuing to contest control of the SoH through both interdiction of commercial shipping and direct attacks against US assets. The IRGC’s claimed downing of two MQ-9 Reaper drones on 16 and 17 September indicates a sustained Iranian effort to degrade US intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations over the SoH. Kinetic exchanges in the maritime domain have repeatedly led to Iranian strikes against targets in regional states, and there are currently no indications that Tehran has abandoned this strategy.
Trump’s statement that he faces a decision over whether to “annihilate” the Iranian regime, alongside the reported order to maintain US force levels in the region until the end of the year, likely indicates that Washington is preserving the option to return to large-scale military operations and sustain pressure on Tehran, rather than signalling an immediate intent to resume major combat operations. The planned 22 September meeting with GCC leaders is likely to be an indicator of the conflict’s next phase. Gulf states almost certainly remain opposed to a return to full-scale conflict given their exposure to Iranian retaliation, and are likely to press for a renewed diplomatic effort.
Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia are highly likely to continue, with the attempted attack against targets in Yanbu and Taif indicating a continued broadening of the Houthi target set beyond southern Saudi Arabia. The highest priority targets for the Houthis likely remain energy infrastructure, military facilities and international airports. The death of one person and the injury of two others from falling debris in the Taif region on 17 September highly likely indicates that the risk to civilians from intercepted munitions and debris is increasing as attacks continue and extend into western Saudi Arabia. Further early warning alerts across western and southern Saudi Arabia are highly likely over the coming days, and short-notice airspace restrictions and flight disruption at Jeddah and other international airports are a realistic possibility.
Saudi airstrikes have not yet targeted Sanaa, the port city of Hodeidah or senior Houthi leadership in the current phase of conflict triggered by the Houthi 3 September offensive, in a likely calibrated attempt to avoid a major escalation in Houthi long-range fires. The conducting of such strikes is likely a key indicator and warning of further escalated Houthi attacks against targets in locations such as Riyadh or Jeddah, and the claimed interception near Mecca is likely to expand the political latitude available to Riyadh to escalate against the Houthis.
The US-Houthi Muscat meeting likely prioritised US attempts to decouple American interests from the Saudi-Houthi conflict rather than a push for mediation, and the reported exclusion of Saudi-linked vessels indicates Houthi intent to maintain the blockade while trying to avoid US retaliation. A Houthi attack against a US-linked vessel or interest would likely be a key indicator of future US involvement.
Travellers and expatriates are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Jordanian authorities have warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group.
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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