Alert+

Powerful Earthquake hits Japan’s Southern Kumamoto Prefecture

Kyushu Earthquake Disrupts Southern Japan

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 10:30 UTC 28 July 2026

On 28 July 2026, at approximately 16:27 Japan Standard Time (07:27 UTC), a powerful, shallow earthquake struck southern Kumamoto Prefecture on the island of Kyushu in south-western Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency initially assessed the earthquake at magnitude 7.1 and a depth of approximately 10 kilometres, while the United States Geological Survey (USGS) later revised its estimate to magnitude 6.8. Strong shaking was reported across Kumamoto, Nagasaki and other parts of Kyushu. The earthquake also resulted in the issuing of a tsunami advisory for coastal areas around the Ariake and Yatsushiro Seas, where waves of up to one metre were considered possible.

The earthquake caused damage in the Kumamoto area. At least 50 people were injured, and approximately 48,000 households were left without power; mobile-phone users in parts of Kumamoto reported service disruptions. At least one freight train derailed at Yatsushiro station in Kumamoto, and several local roadways have suffered damage, including a flyover in Yatsushiro and parts of the Kyushu Expressway.

Japanese authorities have reported disruptions across the Kyushu region of southern Japan, with all rail services being suspended. Kumamoto Airport halted takeoffs and landings, and all Nippon Airways flights bound for Kumamoto and Nagasaki have been cancelled.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for residents of Minamishimabara, Nagasaki. A Level 5 Emergency Safety Alert was issued for all residents of Amakusa City, in Kumamoto Prefecture. Japanese officials have stated that no abnormalities had been reported at nuclear power plants.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Tsunami Advisory Issued for Southern Kyushu, Japan

The death toll will likely be limited by Japan’s disaster resilience. Japan enforces strict building codes, seismic retrofitting, early-warning alerts, regular public drills, and responsive emergency services, which reduce the risk of major infrastructure damage. Japan’s Shinkansen trains, for example, have seismic sensors and brake automatically at the first detection of shaking.

However, in 2016 Kumamoto experienced a series of earthquakes that resulted in nearly 300 direct and indirect fatalities and caused extensive damage to homes, roads, bridges and other critical infrastructure. This indicates that even in highly resilient environments, shallow earthquakes and repeated strong aftershocks can still cause significant casualties and prolonged disruption, particularly where buildings have already been weakened and transport networks have been damaged.

Further aftershocks are highly likely over the coming days. Although most will probably be weaker than the initial earthquake, additional tremors of approximately magnitude 5.0 remain possible. Aftershocks could cause further damage to buildings, bridges, and roads already weakened by the initial shock, increase the risk of landslides in mountainous areas, and disrupt search-and-rescue operations.

Rail services are likely to resume gradually following inspections; however, damage to tracks, stations, signalling systems, and rolling stock is likely to result in localised suspensions and delays for several days. Flight disruptions at Kumamoto and Nagasaki airports are likely to continue until runways, terminals and navigation systems have been assessed. Road closures around damaged bridges, flyovers, and landslide-prone areas are likely to disrupt ground transport, increase journey times and disrupt relief efforts.

Power and telecommunications services will likely be gradually restored; however, intermittent outages and mobile-network congestion remain likely, particularly in the most affected parts of Kumamoto Prefecture and in response to aftershocks.

Travel and Safety Guidance for Japan

Monitor alerts from the Japan Meteorological Agency, local prefectural authorities and municipal emergency services, particularly in Kumamoto, Nagasaki, Amakusa, Yatsushiro and Minamishimabara.
Expect further aftershocks and be prepared to Drop, Cover and Hold On. Aftershocks may occur without warning and could damage structures already weakened by the initial earthquake.
Do not enter visibly damaged buildings. Move away from walls, roof tiles, glass façades, overhead power lines and other potentially weakened structures when outside.
If inside during further shaking, shelter beneath sturdy furniture or against an interior wall, away from windows, unsecured furniture and suspended objects. Refrain from using lifts.
Heed all evacuation orders, Level 5 Emergency Safety Alerts and any instructions issued by the local authorities. Travel to designated municipal shelters only when the route is safe and avoid crossing damaged bridges, flyovers, or roads affected by landslides.
Avoid coastal areas around the Ariake and Yatsushiro seas until tsunami advisories have been formally lifted. Do not approach shorelines, ports, river mouths or low-lying coastal roads to observe conditions.
Exercise caution in mountainous and rural parts of Kumamoto and Nagasaki prefectures, where aftershocks and rainfall may trigger landslides, rockfalls, and road closures.
Avoid unnecessary travel on the Kyushu Expressway and around Yatsushiro, Amakusa and southern Kumamoto, where road and bridge damage may cause closures, congestion and extended journey times.
Confirm the operating status of Shinkansen, regional rail and ferry services before travelling. Allow additional time for journeys and maintain alternative transport arrangements where possible.
Confirm flights before departing for Kumamoto or Nagasaki airports. Travellers should remain at their accommodation until the flight and ground-transfer route have been verified as operational.
Prepare for intermittent power cuts and internet disruption. Keep mobile devices and battery packs charged and agree check-in arrangements where communications are unreliable. Enable satellite-based emergency messaging before travelling into areas with limited cellular coverage.
Maintain sufficient bottled water, food, medication, cash and other essential supplies for at least 72 hours, particularly in areas where road access or utility services remain disrupted.
Keep passports, identification, medication and essential documents in a waterproof and readily accessible emergency bag.
Avoid obstructing emergency-response routes and do not travel to affected areas unless necessary. Follow police cordons and instructions from local authorities.
Management should account for all personnel in affected prefectures, confirm their accommodation and onward travel arrangements, and maintain regular welfare checks until transport and essential services have been stabilised.