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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 26 May 2026 – 29 May 2026
- Reports on 28 May have said that the US and Iranian negotiating teams have reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding (MOU). However, reports also indicate that US President Donald Trump and potentially Iran’s Supreme Leader have yet to give final approval.
- The risk of a return to full-scale conflict in the Middle East, which would likely be characterised by renewed daily Iranian strikes across the region, likely remains high despite the reported progress on a potentially imminent MOU. Moreover, the continuing competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran continue to lead to conflict in the maritime domain, which has repeatedly escalated into broader ‘tit-for-tat’ strikes which have impacted the Gulf States.
- Should an MOU be agreed, the immediate risk of a return to full-scale US-Iran conflict would likely decrease. However, such a framework would likely only be an effective ceasefire extension and not a substantive and lasting peace agreement. Major issues like control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme are unlikely to be fully resolved.
- On 27 May, further US strikes were conducted against Bandar Abbas in Iran, following Iran’s reportedly launching five one-way attack drones at a US commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- On 28 May, authorities announced that Kuwaiti air defences were “confronting hostile missile and drone attacks”. The IRGC stated that, following the US attack against Bandar Abbas, “the US air base from which the attack originated was targeted with aerial projectiles”. US CENTCOM stated that Iran launched a ballistic missile towards Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces.
- As of 29 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman are open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption
On 27 May, Iranian state television published what it claimed to be the draft deal memorandum of understanding (MOU) being negotiated by the US and Iran, containing the following provisions: The Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war shipping levels within a month of the deal, with Iran cooperating with Oman to manage traffic through the strait; a lifting of the US blockade; and a withdrawal of US forces from Iran’s vicinity. The White House quickly described the report as a “complete fabrication”.
Earlier briefings from US officials indicated that the MOU involves: a formalised 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be opened with no tolls, agreement from Iran to clear the mines deployed in the strait, a lifting of the US blockade, the issuance of sanctions waivers for the sale of Iranian oil, and negotiations would take place on the nuclear file.
Reports on 28 May, derived from briefings by US officials and regional sources involved in mediation, said that the US and Iranian negotiating teams have reached an agreement on the MOU. However, the reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has yet to give final approval and wants “a couple of days to think about it”. Moreover, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media quoted a source that claimed the MOU has not been finalised, and Israeli media cited a source which said that Iran’s Supreme Leader has likewise not yet approved the MOU.
On 27 May, further US strikes were conducted against Bandar Abbas in Iran, following an earlier escalation in the maritime domain, which also led to strikes against Bandar Abbas between 24 and 26 May. The 27 May strikes followed Iran reportedly launching five one-way attack drones (OWA-UAVs) at a US commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC subsequently released a statement claiming the launch of retaliation strikes against a US airbase in Kuwait, with Kuwait’s military announcing that its air defences were intercepting hostile missile and drone threats.
Despite the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire being formally still in place, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified, with Israel carrying out high-volume strikes against Hezbollah positions in the south and the Bekaa Valley. On 28 May, Israeli forces struck the suburbs of Beirut for the first time in weeks, despite Iranian warnings that strikes on the capital “could derail the diplomatic track”.
As of 29 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman are open.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 26 and 29 May.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 08:45 UTC on 20 May.
As of 29 May, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
Early 28 May, authorities announced that Kuwaiti air defences were “confronting hostile missile and drone attacks”. The IRGC issued a statement that, following the US attack against Bandar Abbas, “the US air base from which the attack originated was targeted with aerial projectiles”. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that Iran launched a ballistic missile towards Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces. Available open-source images indicate that the missile was launched from Khuzestan, Iran. Although the US air base targeted was unspecified, it was likely the Ali Al Salem Air Base, which is in proximity to Kuwait City and was regularly targeted by Iran earlier in the conflict.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 08:45 UTC on 20 May.
As of 29 May, Kuwait’s airspace is open.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 26 and 29 May.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 08:45 UTC on 20 May.
As of 29 May, Bahrain’s airspace is open.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 26 and 29 May.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 08:45 UTC on 20 May.
As of 29 May, Qatar’s airspace is open.
UAE
No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 26 and 29 May.
At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 08:45 UTC on 20 May.
As of 29 May, the UAE’s airspace is open.
Oman
No attacks have been reported in Oman between 26 and 29 May.
At least three people have been killed and 16 injured in Oman, as of 08:45 UTC on 20 May.
As of 29 May, Oman’s airspace is open.
Regional Advisory
The risk of a return to full-scale conflict in the Middle East, which would likely be characterised by renewed daily Iranian strikes across the region, remains high despite the reported progress on a potentially imminent MOU. Moreover, the continuing competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran continue to lead to hostile incidents in the maritime domain, which has repeatedly escalated into broader ‘tit-for-tat’ strikes which have impacted the Gulf States.
Outside of renewed US-Israeli strikes against Iran triggering a return to full-scale conflict, there remains a high risk of a tactical miscalculation and/or escalation, with retaliatory strikes unlikely to be confined to the immediate area of engagement or the maritime domain. This was most recently demonstrated by the 24-26 May and 27-28 May exchanges, both of which resulted in United States strikes against Bandar Abbas.
Unlike the previous US strikes against Bandar Abbas, the 24-26 May escalation cycle extended over a period of days with multiple rounds of attack and retaliation. In addition to endangering the broader negotiation process, the cycles of escalation have repeatedly led to renewed Iranian strikes against the Gulf States, first with the UAE and more recently against Kuwait, and are likely to continue doing so while competing blockades are in place.
Should a framework agreement/MOU be reached, the immediate risk of a return to full-scale US-Iran conflict would likely decrease. However, such a framework would likely only be an effective ceasefire extension and not a substantive and lasting peace agreement. Major issues like control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme are unlikely to be fully resolved. Moreover, reported provisions within the MOU, such as the US blockade being lifted in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, provide multiple triggers for the potential MOU to break down. Finally, if the MOU only delays detailed nuclear talks for another 60 days, the main disputes that blocked the pre-28 February negotiations would likely remain unresolved and resurface later.
Iranian adherence to any interim framework is likely to be undermined by the IRGC, which has increasingly consolidated power in Tehran, acted independently of the civilian government, and signalled total opposition to US demands. The lack of a fully coherent regime in Tehran with a unified negotiating position almost certainly complicates the negotiation process and increases the likelihood that the IRGC could fail to comply with any agreements made by Tehran’s civilian government.
If the US resumes strikes against Iran, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. This is further reinforced by the 26 May threats issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader against regional countries which host US military bases. Recent leaked classified assessments by US intelligence services indicate that, despite high-intensity US-Israeli strikes, Iran maintains the capability to conduct large-scale long-range strikes across the Middle East, likely for several months, depending on the rate of expenditure.
Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Jordanian authorities have warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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