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Nakba Day 2026:
Global Protest Outlook

Nakba Day 2026 Protest Outlook Amid Elevated Global Unrest Risks

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 13 MAY 2026

The 78th anniversary of the Nakba falls on 15 May, 2026. The Arabic term “Nakba” (“catastrophe”) refers to the mass-displacement of Palestinians following the 1947-49 conflict. The Nakba is central to the formation of Palestinian identity and continues to shape political perspectives and activism in support of Palestine across the world.

Nakba protests have increased in size and volume since the outbreak of the war in Gaza in late 2023. In cities including London, New York, Paris, Berlin, and Barcelona, protests are frequently attended by hundreds of thousands of people, with the 2025 London event reportedly drawing 500,000 participants. Nakba Day protests have mostly occurred in city centres, often in the vicinity of US and Israeli diplomatic facilities.

In both Europe and North America, university-based groups have been actively spearheading the protests, making campuses epicentres of demonstrations. During past anniversaries, student groups in several American and European cities staged large-scale demonstrations and more disruptive forms of activism, including occupations, sit-ins, and blockades.

Nakba Day protests are also common in the Middle East, due to the commemoration’s lasting political importance. Nakba Day protests often occur in Morocco, Jordan, and Lebanon.

The increased visibility of the pro-Palestine movement has driven an increase in the volume of Nakba Day protests outside of North America, Europe, and the Middle East. In past years, large-scale protests were recorded in several South and Central American countries and in Japan.

On previous commemorations, there have been several pro-Israel counterprotests. Tensions between protesters and counterprotesters, or between protesters and security forces, have been observed on multiple occasions. These have included episodes of violence and harassment.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Large-Scale Nakba Day Protests Expected Globally

In 2026, Nakba Day will almost certainly coincide with large-scale protests in major urban centres across North America, Western Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of the Asia-Pacific. Protest activity in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be lower by comparison, although large-scale demonstrations remain likely in countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Kenya, and South Africa.

The ongoing but contested ceasefire in Gaza is unlikely to result in a reduction in the volume of protests or their attendance compared to 2025. Instead, the 2026 protests have a realistic possibility of exceeding the scope of last year’s. Developments that will likely drive large-scale Nakba Day protests in 2026 include the ongoing Iran conflict, the continuing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, expanded operations in the West Bank, and the resumption of high-intensity conflict in Lebanon.

Other events not directly related to Gaza or the broader Middle East are also likely to influence protests. In Mexico, the US, and Canada, protests may focus on the upcoming World Cup, with several activist groups having been formed to oppose the event. In the United Kingdom, the anniversary will fall a week after the deeply contested local elections, and shortly after the end of a trial for several members of “Palestine Action”, a proscribed pro-Palestine direct action group. In Argentina, recent scandals have destabilised the government of President Milei. In the US, the anniversary falls during the opening stages of the electoral campaign for the November midterm elections.

While many protests will take place on 15 May, several large-scale demonstrations have been organised over the 16-17 May weekend. Areas where protests have already been organised (or are highly likely to be announced) include London, Sydney, Paris, Los Angeles, New York, Washington D.C., Johannesburg, Brussels, Amsterdam, and Barcelona.

The case of London is particularly notable, as a far-right march has also been scheduled to occur in the city’s centre on Nakba Day, where pro-Palestine protests are simultaneously planned. The last “Unite the Kingdom” rally, in September 2025, was attended by more than 100,000 people. The presence of hundreds of thousands of protesters with radically different political positions has a realistic possibility of resulting in severe disruptions in central London, including violent clashes.

Planned Nakba Day rallies are mostly scheduled to begin in the late morning, although disruptions may begin earlier and continue throughout the day. In addition to planned demonstrations, smaller gatherings are likely to occur, possibly as groups splinter from the main crowd. Common protest methods on Nakba Day include slow marches through city centres, the symbolic “occupation” of government offices or, more frequently, academic buildings on university campuses. Particularly in large cities, protests will almost certainly be heavily policed, and authorities will implement road closures and other mitigation measures ahead of Nakba Day.

Protests are particularly likely to occur in high-visibility areas of city centres, particularly in the vicinity of government offices, Israeli and US embassies, and other diplomatic offices such as consulates. In addition to these, past pro-Palestine protests have targeted businesses that have links with Israel or have been accused of directly or indirectly aiding the Israeli war effort, such as insurance companies. Universities are highly likely to be particularly at-risk hotspots for civil unrest.

Pro-Palestine activist groups are highly likely to stage direct action on or near Nakba Day. This form of unrest may include targeted actions meant to affect transport, particularly at airports, train stations, and public transport hubs. Direct action may also include vandalism of government offices or commercial and corporate assets and premises.

While most demonstrations are likely to remain peaceful, there is a threat of violence in connection with the protests. In the past, pro-Palestine protests have resulted in clashes between attendees and responding police. In countries including India, Bangladesh, and the United States, protesters have vandalised businesses and stores perceived to be linked with Israel or Israeli entities. As counterdemonstrations by pro-Israel activists often occur on symbolically important dates, there is a threat of clashes between opposing protesters, although this is often mitigated by large police deployments.

Finally, Nakba Day protests are high-visibility events. As such, there is a realistic possibility of opportunistic extremist action, including terrorist attacks, on or near the day. Organised terror groups as well as self-radicalised “lone wolves” may seek to stage attacks during Nakba Day. High-risk targets also include government buildings and diplomatic offices, Jewish and Islamic places of worship, and university campuses.

Travel and Safety Guidance for Nakba Day 2026

Avoid areas prone to protest or where demonstrations have been organised, especially government buildings, universities, and major urban centres.
Closely monitor local news reports, government alerts, trusted local media, and, if available, a security provider’s intelligence/alerting feed, for updates relevant to the demonstrations.
Allocate additional time for travel to or near areas where protests are scheduled, due to the possibility of increased traffic or travel disruptions.
Where possible, use alternative routes to steer clear of city centres and avoid public transport.
When planning travel, note that most planned demonstrations will begin between 11:00-14:00 local time.
If in the vicinity of a protest, try to leave if it is safe to do so. Always abide by authority and police directions.
If you are in a crowd and unable to leave, take precautions to minimise the risk of crowd crush. These include staying upright, moving away from all hard barriers, going with and not against the crowd, and holding your arms at chest level in a boxer-like stance to relieve pressure.
Ensure that you always carry personal identification documents or copies.
Ensure knowledge of important contact numbers. These should include at least the local emergency number(s) and contacts for your local embassy or consulate.
If protests are scheduled to occur near business premises or travel destinations, consider alternative working arrangements, such as remote work, to minimise the threat to employees and business travellers.