23 – 30 July
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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events
Key Events This Week
Americas
Venezuela
Venezuela’s decision to withdraw from the International Criminal Court is likely a further indication of its increasing realignment with Washington in the post-Maduro era.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Republic of Ireland
The interdiction of a readily deployable explosive device in the Republic of Ireland near the Northern Irish border is almost certainly reflective of the persistent threat posed by dissident republican groups.
France
While firefighters have largely contained the spread of the wildfires in France, smouldering vegetation, recurring flare-ups, high temperatures, low humidity, and shifting winds mean that renewed growth is a realistic possibility.
Spain
The proximity of the fires to Madrid demonstrates that Spain’s wildfire threat is increasingly affecting densely populated inland areas amid what will highly likely be one of Spain’s most severe wildfire years on record.
Spain
The recent anti-tourism protests in Palma de Mallorca, Spain, likely marked an intensification of movement in the Balearics. The 8 August protest will likely attract substantial attendance and could result in violence.
Germany
The terror attack targeting the Berlin Pride event in Germany highly likely demonstrates the Islamic State’s continued success in “inspiring” radicalised individuals to carry out attacks on its behalf.
Ukraine
Russia has highly likely set the conditions for a potential mobilisation for the war in Ukraine after the September 2026 elections, following the introduction of several legal and administrative measures.
West Bank
Israeli operations in the West Bank will likely continue at a high level of intensity in the immediate term following a firefight that killed six people and orders to seize an undisclosed refugee camp.
Middle East
Iran’s increased use of proxy forces to target sites across the Middle East likely indicates that Tehran is willing to sustain regional escalation despite high-intensity US strikes.
Asia Pacific
China
Severe flooding across multiple provinces in China has likely increased exposure to further flooding and disruption during the remainder of the cyclone season.
Singapore
The arrest of three teenagers in Singapore under counter-terrorism legislation is almost certainly reflective of the increasing threat of online radicalisation among teenagers and young adults in the Southeast Asian nation.
Japan
A shallow earthquake on western Kyushu in Japan is likely to result in sustained disruption, with further aftershocks highly likely.
North, Central and South America
Venezuela: Interim government withdraws from the International Criminal Court.
On 24 July, Venezuelan government officials announced that the country would withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Venezuelan Foreign Minister Felix Plasencia stated that the decision was motivated by the court’s “geographical bias” which disproportionately targets countries in Africa and Latin America. Venezuelan Interim President Delcy Rodriguez reportedly ordered the decision.
The US State Department released a message in support of the Venezuelan decision, stating that it supports “American-led efforts to dismantle the corrupt and worthless ICC”. The State Department said in a statement that the ICC had conducted a failed investigation into Nicolas Maduro since 2018, the former Venezuelan President who was captured in a US raid in Caracas in January 2026. The statement added that “it is time to dismantle the ICC”, and called on all ICC member states to withdraw from the Rome Statute.
Solace Global Assessment:
The current US administration has intensified efforts to oppose the ICC, particularly after the court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials due to the war in Gaza. In February 2025, the US imposed sanctions on senior ICC officials, and has since sought to persuade other partners to withdraw from the Hague-based organisation.
The decision almost certainly reflects growing US influence on the Venezuelan government, which interim President Delcy Rodriguez has led since the removal of Maduro. While most of Venezuela’s leadership has remained in place, the interim government is currently de facto dependent on the US, with its budget being largely administered from Washington. This dependency has almost certainly deepened following the late-June earthquake that caused widespread destruction in Venezuela, with the US pledging USD 300 million to relief efforts and deploying 2,000 troops to the country.
On the same day as the ICC decision, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that negotiations regarding the post-Maduro political transition will begin in August. This will reportedly include both current government figures and leaders of the opposition, although former presidential candidate María Corina Machado is currently not set to attend. While it is unclear if the ICC decision was linked to the upcoming political transition, the Rodríguez government likely has an interest in signalling to Washington its willingness to cooperate on key security and geopolitical issues ahead of any major leadership changes.
There is a realistic possibility that Venezuela’s decision will be followed by other LATAM states, who have increasingly aligned their foreign policies with the US or remain heavily dependent on Washington for economic and security support. Colombia’s incoming right-wing President-elect, Abelardo de la Espriella, has pledged to overhaul the country’s diplomatic services, and has discussed the idea of leaving international organisations such as the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR). There is a realistic possibility that either the new Colombian government or those of other states that are seeking closer relations with the US will join the Washington-led “push” against the ICC.
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