Global Intelligence Summary

On 3 November, approximately 250 million US citizens will be eligible to vote in the country’s midterm elections, deciding the makeup of Congress. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats (33 regular contests plus special elections in Ohio and Florida), 39 state and territorial governors, and 33 attorneys general, as well as numerous state and local officials. The Republican Party currently holds narrow majorities in both chambers, with 53 of 100 seats in the Senate, and 217 seats to the Democrats’ 214 in the House.

Midterm elections are widely treated as a barometer of the sitting president’s popularity and that of the governing party. Historically, the president’s party has lost congressional seats in most midterms, with rare exceptions. Polls from 19 October indicated that President Donald Trump had an estimated approval rating of 31 per cent, the lowest figure across both of his terms (2017–2021, 2025–present). The Democratic Party has also performed strongly in several 2025 off-year elections. Most polls indicate that the Democrats will likely win a majority in the House, with the control of the Senate more uncertain, although most estimates suggest a narrow win for the Democrats.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The US midterms occur at a time of high polarisation in the US. Over the last decade, US elections have been affected by notable levels of unrest and occasional political violence. The upcoming vote follows months of protests over several issues, including domestic political developments and foreign policy issues, such as the war in Iran and the war in Gaza. Political tensions have also been fuelled by disinformation, with several research institutes identifying campaigns aimed at spreading fake and inflammatory narratives via social media ahead of the vote.

It is likely that the elections will result in some cases of unrest, particularly if claims of a fraudulent vote or of authorities seeking to affect the voting process emerge. The risk level will likely be highest after the voting process has concluded and the first results are announced. A close or contested outcome, particularly if accompanied by allegations of fraud from either side, would likely lead to protests outside county election offices, counting centres, and state capitol buildings in affected states, with a heightened risk of clashes between rival groups. Most large-scale protests in the US are heavily policed and remain peaceful, although they can cause significant traffic disruption in major cities, and localised violent unrest cannot be ruled out.

While typically rare, there is also a realistic possibility of election-related political violence and terrorism. Previous midterm elections have been associated with politically motivated attacks, including the mailing of explosive devices to prominent Democratic figures ahead of the 2018 midterms, the attack on the husband of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shortly before the 2022 elections, and a series of shootings targeting Democratic officials in New Mexico following the 2022 midterms. Lone actors motivated by political or ideological grievances are likely to represent the principal terrorism-related threat, particularly given the accessibility of firearms and the potential for attacks requiring limited planning or coordination.

The midterms vote will almost certainly be influenced by economic factors, such as the rising cost of living in the US, with higher fuel prices and inflationary pressures exacerbated by the conflict with Iran likely increasing public dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. However, even if the Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, this is unlikely to fundamentally alter the administration’s approach towards Iran, given the president’s extensive executive powers over foreign policy and military operations, as well as the presidency’s strong veto powers. With the immediate electoral pressures removed following the midterms, there is a realistic possibility that the administration will pursue a more confrontational approach towards Iran, especially if a Democratic-controlled Congress attempts to constrain, challenge or undermine the administration’s domestic agenda.