20 – 27 August
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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events
Key Events This Week
Americas
Haiti
A massacre conducted by gangs in Kenscoff, Haiti, almost certainly demonstrates the continued failure of the government to provide security near the capital, which is largely under gang control.
Bolivia
There is a realistic possibility of a new nationwide protest movement emerging in Bolivia following the government’s issuing of Supreme Decree 5676.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Ukraine
Russia has highly likely intensified calibrated operations across Europe to deter support for Ukraine and test NATO’s resolve. A limited incursion remains unlikely in the near term, but deniable activity will likely escalate.
Middle East
As the US pivots to economic pressure against Iran, it is unlikely that the US will initiate major offensive operations in the short term, but it is likely that Iran itself will now initiate calibrated escalation in the coming weeks.
Guinea-Bissau
The 30 August constitutional referendum in Guinea-Bissau is highly likely to pass and will almost certainly solidify military influence over the country ahead of the 6 December legislative and presidential elections.
Ethiopia
Two drone strikes injure at least 13 in Mekelle, Tigray, highly likely to further escalate tensions between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces, making a return to conflict in the region increasingly likely.
Somalia
Somali pirates are highly likely leveraging the regional impacts of the conflicts in Iran and Yemen to intensify vessel seizures off the coast of Somalia.
DRC
Despite an agreement over a roadmap to peace as well as the deployment of a ceasefire monitoring mission, continued fighting in eastern DRC is highly likely.
Asia Pacific
Nepal
The death toll from landslides at the Nepal-Tibet border will almost certainly increase, as the rough terrain, infrastructural damage and continued threat of mudslides complicate search and rescue efforts.
Thailand
A series of over 70 coordinated attacks across Thailand’s southern provinces was likely intended to demonstrate militant capability and increase pressure on the central government ahead of renewed peace talks.
Australia
A nationwide March for Australia protest organised for 30 August is likely to result in transport disruption, large-scale counter-demonstrations and an increased security presence in major urban areas.
North, Central and South America
Haiti: Gangs kill more than 40 people in church attack near Port-au-Prince.
On the night of 23 August, heavily armed members of the Viv Ansanm gang coalition conducted a large-scale attack in Kenscoff, a mountainous commune located approximately 10km southeast of the capital, Port-au-Prince. The attack targeted multiple locations across the town and surrounding areas, including residential neighbourhoods, vehicles and a church being used to shelter internally displaced persons (IDPs).
According to UN channels, at least 47 people were killed and 22 injured; however, an exact casualty figure remains hard to determine due to local insecurity and difficulty in accessing the area. Several people were also reportedly abducted, local homes were also set on fire and livestock were attacked. In response, the Haitian government placed security forces on heightened alert and announced that reinforcements would be sent to the area.
Solace Global Assessment:
TheViv Ansanm gang coalition, which was formed in 2023 out of a merger of several powerful gangs including G-9 and G-pép, currently controls approximately 90 per cent of the Haitian capital and has expanded into three of Haiti’s ten departments. Led by former police officer Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier, the gang has sometimes styled itself as a “political” force and demanded a government role, but in practice has systematically attacked all government institutions, as well as non-government actors engaged in the provision of basic services, including churches and NGOs engaged in humanitarian relief efforts.
The Kenscoff area has long been an epicentre of clashes between government forces and gangs, with periodic violence continuing since 2024, and clashes recorded as recently as mid-August 2026. Kenscoff is a strategically important area, as it is located on the Kenscoff-Marigot road, one of the main roadways leading to Port-au-Prince. Much of the area also lies at approximately 1,500-2,000 metres elevation, giving armed groups that control the surrounding hills commanding positions over key roads and approaches to the capital, as well as the commune of Pétion-Ville, an area under government control where numerous government offices, banks, and embassies are located.
Gaining full control of Kenscoff would likely provide the gangs with greater ability to pressure Pétion-Ville and other government-held areas, while placing them in a better position to disrupt one of the remaining routes between Port-au-Prince and the south of Haiti, which largely remains under government control. Isolating southern Haiti from the capital would also likely help the gangs consolidate power in the capital region by restricting government reinforcement and resupply routes.
The UN Security Council authorised Gang Suppression Force (GSF), which was established in September 2025, to replace the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission, has yet to fully reach operational capacity. The GSF has only around 1,000 personnel deployed to Haiti, but is set to reach 5,550 personnel. Securing control of Kenscoff is likely a key objective of the gangs before the GSF reaches its full operational capacity to disrupt future counter-gang operations. Further offensives on Kenscoff are highly likely before the GSF expands its presence and counter-gang operations.
The attack also occurred only days before 30 August, the original date for Haiti’s first-round elections before the timetable was revised in July. The last Haitian elections were held in 2016, and elections have been repeatedly delayed since 2019. The government is now proposing to hold elections on 13 December 2026. Large-scale attacks have likely further undermined the central government’s authority and reduced its ability to create the security conditions required for elections, with disrupting or preventing a national election likely another key objective for the gangs seeking to preserve their influence and control.
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