Global Intelligence Summary

On 19 July, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega declared that “there will never be elections here again”, in order to prevent the opposition from attaining power. Ortega added that he would work with Congress to pass new laws to “build a wall” against the opposition, and that “[t]he days when parties backed by the Yankees and the Somocistas would return to power are over – never again.” The announcement was made during the official ceremony marking the 47^th anniversary of the 1979 Sandinista revolution, in which he helped to overthrow Anastasio Somoza’s dictatorship. His speech was his first public appearance in two months.

Solace Global Assessment: 

General elections were due to be held in Nicaragua by November 2026 to elect the co-presidents and members of the National Assembly. Co-presidents Ortega and his wife Rosario Murillo have consolidated near-total control over Nicaragua’s political system. A former guerrilla leader, Ortega rose to prominence after the left-wing Sandinista National Liberation Front led the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Somoza dictatorship. He lost the 1990 presidential election but returned to power in 2007, remaining in office ever since. Constitutional reforms approved in 2025 elevated Murillo from vice-president to co-president and further concentrated control over the legislative, judicial, and electoral institutions within the executive.

The Ortega-Murillo government has become increasingly authoritarian, particularly since nationwide anti-government protests challenged its authority in 2018. The administration has dismantled institutional checks, restricted civil society, effectively eliminated credible political opposition, and used security forces and the judiciary to suppress dissent. Human rights organisations and UN investigators have accused authorities of killing protesters, arbitrarily detaining and mistreating government critics, closing independent media outlets and non-governmental organisations, and targeting journalists, religious figures, opposition politicians, former Sandinista allies, and other perceived dissidents.

The January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by United States forces, alongside increased US pressure on Cuba, has highly likely intensified Ortega’s sense of vulnerability, as both countries were important regional allies of Nicaragua. Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton referred to the three nations as the “troika of tyranny” and “the genesis of a sordid cradle of communism in the western hemisphere.” Ortega’s move to solidify his leadership has highly likely been inspired by the threat from the US.

Despite the government’s de facto ban on protests since September 2018, there is a realistic possibility that Ortega’s announcement will trigger unrest. However, the government’s extensive repression apparatus may dissuade many from taking part and may limit any unrest to small-scale clashes. The Ortega-Murillo administration is likely to interpret even limited opposition activity as a potential threat to regime survival and will highly likely respond to major civil unrest with severe crackdowns, including mass arrests and potentially even live ammunition.