Global Intelligence Summary

On 19 April, Peruvian electoral authorities stated that the results of the presidential election will not be finalised until mid-May, amidst ongoing reviews of vote tallies. The first round of the Peruvian presidential election took place on 12 and 13 April. Early vote tallies indicate that Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading with 17 per cent of the votes, five points ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino.

Fujimori, who previously ran for the presidency in 2011, 2016, and 2021, heads Popular Force (FP), a neoliberal-conservative party (an ideology also characterised as Fujimorism, after Alberto Fujimori’s views). Sánchez leads Together for Peru (JP), a centre-left party. Rafael López Aliaga, of the far-right Popular Renewal (RP) party, finished a close third, with a 0.09 per cent gap to Sánchez. Peru’s presidential electoral system is a two-round system, like France’s, where the two candidates to obtain the most votes in the first round advance to a run-off.  The runoff vote is scheduled to take place on 7 June.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The vote, although judged to have been free and fair by external observers, was marred by reported irregularities, including long queues on election day, missing electoral material, and arbitrary extensions of the voting period at some stations, which prompted the head of the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE), Piero Corvetto, to step down on 21 April. While Fujimori’s advance to the second round is guaranteed by the early vote tallies, the delays in the release of the final results are almost certainly the result of the close finishes of the second and third-place candidates.

Controversies concerning the vote have already resulted in some localised protests. On 19 April, approximately 3,000 RP supporters protested in Lima. López Aliaga, whose chances of advancing to the second round have likely decreased as the vote-counting process has progressed, has called for ONPE to investigate the vote. López Aliaga previously used even more inflammatory rhetoric, giving the National Elections Jury (JNE) an “ultimatum” to annul the elections and calling for a “civil insurgency”.

Further protests are likely in the short term. They will likely follow the publication of the final results on 15 May, but other developments, such as potential further delays that could change the final release date, also have the potential to drive unrest in Peru.

Peru’s political system remains highly polarised, following the 2025 government crisis that coincided with large-scale “Gen Z” protests, which resulted in one death and more than 100 injuries. A Fujimori-Sánchez runoff is likely to be very competitive, as the two candidates, combined, received less than one-third of the total votes, making undecided voters and the supporters of other candidates crucial in determining the next winner.