11 – 18 June
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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events
Key Events This Week
America
Mexico
Protest movements in Mexico are highly likely to continue leveraging the 2026 FIFA World Cup to maximise visibility, resulting in major disruption and clashes with security forces.
Venezuela
A US strike in Venezuela, which killed the leader of a transnational organised crime group, is almost certainly reflective of expanded cooperation and is likely a model that will spread to other parts of Latin America.
Peru
The highly contested and narrow Peruvian presidential election is likely to increase the risk of unrest, following mutual allegations of voter fraud and disputes over the integrity of the vote-counting process.
Latin America
The onset of El Niño conditions is highly likely to increase the risk of environmental disasters and disruption across large parts of Latin America, especially in Pacific-facing areas of western South America.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Switzerland
The protests that occurred in Geneva, Switzerland, during the G7 summit were highly likely exacerbated by the Iran conflict and other geopolitical developments. It is unlikely that further unrest will occur after the summit.
Ukraine
A 14-15 June large-scale wave of strikes against Ukraine, which includes strikes in central Kyiv impacting the Perchersk-Lavra, almost certainly highlights the continuation of Russia’s escalated ‘systematic strikes’ campaign.
Middle East
The signing of a memorandum of understanding by the US and Iran is likely to reduce immediate escalation risks in the Middle East; however, multiple unresolved issues are likely to undermine the negotiation process.
Sub-Saharan Africa
The onset of El Niño conditions almost certainly increases the risk of drought in the western Sahel and Southern Africa, and heavy rainfall and flooding in East Africa.
Nigeria
Following a court ruling deregistering five opposition parties in Nigeria, there is a realistic possibility that the ruling will be reversed; if not, opposition leaders are likely to call for protests.
DRC
While further small-scale demonstrations in the DRC over perceived attempts to create a pathway to extend constitutional term limits are likely, concrete moves to do so will highly likely trigger widespread unrest.
Asia Pacific
Hong Kong
Amendments made to Hong Kong’s National Security Law have almost certainly increased the risk of questioning or arbitrary detention for travellers and anyone deemed to be acting against the interests of the state.
Indonesia
There is a realistic possibility that current anti-government protests in Indonesia will expand into a nationwide protest movement, especially if police actions result in casualties or are perceived as excessive.
North, Central and South America
Mexico: Protest movements continue attempts to disrupt the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Teachers associated with the union Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (CNTE) have continued their nationwide strike action and protests across much of Mexico. On 13 June, CNTE stated that demonstrations and roadblocks would continue after negotiations with the federal government failed to produce concessions. CNTE’s key demands include the repeal of pension reforms, salary increases, and changes to teachers’ employment conditions.
On 11 June, striking teachers gathered near Estadio Azteca and marched towards the stadium in an attempt to block access to the venue ahead of Mexico’s 2026 FIFA World Cup opening ceremony. The police then established a security zone near the stadium, made accessible only to those holding a valid World Cup ticket. However, protesters repeatedly attempted to break through the police cordon. Additional protests have been staged in central parts of Mexico City, resulting in major disruption.
Coordinated protests were also staged, including in Chiapas, where CNTE members occupied a Petróleos Mexicanos facility in Tuxtla Gutiérrez and demonstrated outside Ángel Albino Corzo International Airport. In Guerrero, protesters blocked a roundabout in Acapulco, while in Morelos, clashes were reported between protest groups in Cuernavaca. Smaller disruptive actions were also in multiple other locations. Other groups protesting missing persons and violence against women also held demonstrations across Mexico to coincide with the tournament.
Solace Global Assessment:
CNTE and additional protest movements are highly likely to continue to leverage the 2026 FIFA World Cup to gain maximum visibility and pressure the federal government into concessions. While Mexico isn’t scheduled to host any of the tournament’s quarterfinals or later stages, protest activity is likely to increase during the final matches of the group stages and on 5July, when Mexico City will host one of the round of 16 matches. Protest activity is also likely to increase around Mexico fixtures, with the domestic audience likely to be highest.
There is a realistic possibility that the federal government’s refusal to concede to CNTE will result in an escalation of protest tactics, with potential courses of action including increased roadblocks, tollbooth occupations, airport access disruption, and increased attempts to deny access to World Cup venues and fan zones. This is likely to increase the risk of violent clashes with the security forces and transport disruption in Mexico.
As the tournament progresses and global media attention increases, there is also a realistic possibility that other protest movements in Mexico, the US, and Canada will seek to capitalise on the World Cup’s visibility to amplify their messaging and increase pressure on their respective governments. In Los Angeles, anti-Iranian regime protests involved hundreds of demonstrators outside the stadium, with further protests likely staged to coincide with Iran’s other matches. In Canada, pro-Palestinian protests were held ahead of Canada’s opening match against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Several other protest movements across North America have threatened to disrupt the World Cup relating to a broad spectrum of issues, including immigration enforcement, Palestinian rights, conflict, housing affordability, the cost of hosting the tournament, human rights, climate change, Indigenous rights, labour rights, and gender-based violence.
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