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10 – 17 September

Global Intelligence Summary

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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events

Mark Overington
Mark Overington
Head of Intelligence
Joshua George
Joshua George
Intelligence Analyst
Julian Kett
Julian Kett
Intelligence Analyst
Manfredi Pozzoli
Manfredi Pozzoli
Intelligence Analyst

Key Events This Week

Americas

AMER

Peru

Peru’s joining of the Shield of the Americas initiative will likely accelerate intelligence sharing with US agencies while lowering the barriers to a more militarised counter-narcotics approach.

AMER

Bolivia

The Bolivian government is highly likely to extend the current state of emergency in response to renewed protest activity and attempts to establish roadblocks on critical transport corridors.

AMER

Chile

The high arrest toll during Chile’s coup anniversary protests almost certainly reflects anger over the government’s decision to forgo an official commemoration, with further clashes likely around the 18 October Estallido Social anniversary.


Europe, Middle East and Africa

EMEA

Sweden

The narrow result of the Swedish general elections will likely lead to a protracted period of coalition-building negotiations, with a realistic possibility of limited civil unrest.

EMEA

The Netherlands

The coordinated sabotage of rail services across the Netherlands was highly likely timed to coincide with the Dutch budget and designed to maximise disruption while posing limited threat to life.

EMEA

Poland

A strike against a train near Poland’s border in Ukraine almost certainly highlights both Moscow’s diminishing risk aversion for strikes impacting foreign nationals and a broader increasing threat to passenger services.

EMEA

Saudi Arabia

Houthi cross-border attacks have expanded beyond southern Saudi Arabia, with further attempted strikes in western Saudi Arabia likely as the conflict in Yemen continues to escalate with no current observable diplomatic off-ramps.


Asia Pacific

APAC

China

The introduction of new exit regulations in China has likely increased the risk for foreign businesses and employees operating in sensitive industries in the country.

APAC

The Philippines

The closely contested election results in the Philippines’ Bangsamoro region will highly likely sustain the risk of localised civil unrest, political intimidation, and armed clashes between rival party supporters.


Following a meeting with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 10 September, Peru’s newly elected President Keiko Fujimori stated that the country will be joining the US-led Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (A3C), known colloquially as the “Shield of the Americas”. Peru had previously signed the Americas Counter Cartel Conference Joint Security Declaration on 5 March 2026 through its Ministry of Defence. The March declaration committed participants to expand security cooperation, including on border security, counter-narcotics, “narco-terrorism” and the protection of critical infrastructure.

Following the visit, Rubio stated that the US is not preparing to conduct unilateral military action in Peru, but stressed that it will continue to strengthen its cooperation with Peru on security matters, with a special emphasis on joint efforts between the Peruvian National Police (PNP) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to combat transnational organised crime. The PNP will also coordinate more with the Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and the Diplomatic Security Service (DSS).

Solace Global Assessment: 

Peru’s joining of the A3C will likely deepen an already expanding security relationship with the US rather than result in an immediate change to Peru’s security posture. US agencies routinely provide training and support to Peruvian police, military, and counter-narcotics units, with the most immediate effect likely to be increased intelligence sharing, faster access to information and increased coordination with US agencies.

In contrast to Ecuador and Colombia, Peru has yet to display any clear signs of a shift towards the use of airstrikes or other military operations against organised crime groups (OCGs). Peru’s current strategy appears more centred on police-led operations, as opposed to a more militarised approach. However, Fujimori campaigned heavily on improving security and has invoked Peru’s experience of confronting terrorism in framing the current threat from organised crime.

Moreover, the coalition has advocated for greater military involvement in countering transnational criminal groups, and Peru’s armed forces already exercise direct operational control in the Valley of the Apurímac, Ene, and Mantaro Rivers (VRAEM), Pataz, and Putumayo and support the police across several other emergency zones. Therefore, a shift toward a more militarised approach would likely be straightforward to implement, and Peru’s membership of the A3C would likely lower the political and operational barriers to one.

With Peru joining the A3C alongside all of its neighbours except Brazil, the coalition will likely consolidate a near-continuous counter-narcotics framework across the Andean region. However, this leaves the Peru-Brazil border as a major gap in coverage, a development that OCGs will likely exploit. In the long-term, increased pressure and intelligence sharing among A3C members will likely displace trafficking activity towards the border region and the wider Amazon basin, where state presence is limited.


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