Global Intelligence Summary

During the 9-16 April period, Cuban officials and international media have reported a further worsening of Cuba’s ongoing crisis. On 10 April, the Havana Electricity Company reported rolling outages of up to 18 hours in parts of the capital, with similar figures being reported from other cities across the island. The current electricity, fuel and infrastructure crisis has resulted in a further decline in Cuba’s tourism sector, previously a key lifeline for the Cuban economy.

On 13 April, Iberia Airlines stated that the company would suspend direct flights to Cuba from June due to a drop in tourist demand. Iberia is the latest airline to suspend services to the island and follows several other carriers’ announcements in late February and early March, which were also influenced by fuel shortages and falling demand. On 13 April, US President Donald Trump reiterated threats to carry out a military operation to topple the Cuban government, stating that “we may stop by Cuba after we’re finished with [Iran]”.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Cuba’s energy and infrastructure crises have likely entered a negative feedback loop, with shortages of energy, water, and fuel accelerating the deterioration of critical national infrastructure (CNI), which in turn is leading to more prolonged disruptions and compounding secondary impacts.

On 10 April, local authorities in the town of Matanzas, which has one of Cuba’s key thermoelectric plants, noted that local electricity generation is being continuously compromised by growing rates of theft of oil from transformers, which is then reused as fuel for small generators. The authorities have also reported the widespread theft of solar panels. In the same area, the lack of drinkable water has reportedly resulted in the increased digging of improvised wells. However, these wells have a greater risk of cross-contamination from sewage, and are therefore leading to further shortages in clean water access and a spike in cases of water-borne diseases, which has in turn strained local healthcare services.

Following the US military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, which resulted in a suspension of Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, there has been an island-wide increase in the use of locally extracted oil. However, this oil is categorised as both “heavy” and “sour”, meaning that it has a very high sulphur content and is highly corrosive. The fuel is also harder to process and transport, as well as less efficient for power generation. This substitution has accelerated the degradation of power-generating infrastructure, as it has increased the corrosion of equipment and particulate buildup, thereby increasing the rate and scale of breakdowns and outages.

Cuba’s energy situation is likely to further worsen in the short to medium term, with environmental factors likely to prove influential in the coming months. In May, Cuba is likely to have daily maximum temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit). In addition to increasing water consumption, higher temperatures are likely to decrease the efficiency of power plants and generally decrease the efficiency of electricity transmission over power lines.

Decreased efficiency is likely to coincide with increased demand, due to ventilation and refrigeration needs, putting further stress on the power grid and increasing the likelihood of cascading failures. Moreover, the Caribbean hurricane season typically begins in June, with a realistic possibility of powerful storms in May. High wind speeds, flooding, and storm surges are likely to damage power plants, substations and transmission infrastructure, while also disrupting fuel supply, exerting further pressure on Cuba’s energy production. This decrease in energy availability is likely to exacerbate pressures across other CNI sectors, including the provision of drinking water, telecommunications and healthcare access.