6 – 13 August
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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events
Key Events This Week
Americas
Colombia
The death toll from a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Chocó Department is highly likely to rise from Colombia’s largest earthquake in over a century, with major damage in Cali, Pereira, Manizales, and Quibdó.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Ukraine
Russian strikes against Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have likely achieved a functional blockade of Ukraine’s maritime access, with Odesa Oblast highly likely more exposed to strikes due to geography and air defence allocation.
Libya
The assassination of the head of military intelligence for the LNA in Benghazi, Libya, is likely reflective of an internal power struggle amid a succession crisis, while undermining the perception of the LNA’s political stability.
Israel & Lebanon
The implementation of the “pilot zones” programme in southern Lebanon remains unlikely in the short term, with a recent escalation of Israeli military operations further destabilising the area.
Israel & Palestine
Israeli settler operations in the West Bank have almost certainly expanded in both volume and scope, with a growing number of incidents occurring in Areas A and B.
Middle East
A formal lapse of the 60-day US-Iran ‘truce’ period on 17 August is unlikely to trigger an immediate resumption of large-scale strikes in the region, but multiple triggers for rapid escalation almost certainly remain.
Saudi Arabia
Iran-backed Iraqi militias have warned that they have only postponed retaliation against Saudi Arabia, and an intensification of conflict in Yemen likely threatens a substantial escalation in Houthi cross-border attacks.
Asia Pacific
Indonesia
Indonesia’s wildfire season is highly likely to be exacerbated by El Niño, with wildfires burning through at least 107,000 hectares in 2026 so far.
Pakistan
Further clashes are highly likely in Pakistan-administered Kashmir amid the postponement of polling in numerous constituencies in the final round of the Legislative Assembly elections.
North, Central and South America
Colombia: 7.4 magnitude earthquake kills over 250 and injures nearly 3,500.
At 07:34 local time (12:34 UTC) on 10 August, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake was detected 5 kilometres east of San José del Palmar, Chocó Department, Colombia, at a depth of 107 kilometres, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The earthquake was felt as far as Venezuela and Ecuador. Latest figures place at least 265 people killed and 3,494 injured, with 496 still missing. The earthquake destroyed over 9,215 homes and damaged another 45,457.
The worst damage occurred in Cali, Pereira, Manizales, and Quibdó. In Cali and Pereira, entire neighbourhoods were effectively flattened with rubble, and rescuers used cranes, search dogs, and heavy machinery to clear debris and search for survivors. In Chocó Department, the epicentre, rescue and clean-up efforts have been hampered by the remoteness of many communities in the conflict-ridden region, with many only accessible by boat, air, or through the jungle.
Residents evacuated buildings in northern Bogotá, over 200 kilometres east of the epicentre, while buildings were also evacuated in Barranquilla. However, the mayor of Bogotá, Carlos Fernando Galán, reported that no structural damage was reported aside from some cracks in buildings.
Recently inaugurated President de la Espriella has declared a state of emergency and promised rent subsidies for families who lost their homes.
Solace Global Assessment:
The earthquake was the strongest to hit Colombia in over a century. Colombia regularly experiences earthquakes because of its position at the convergence of several tectonic systems, with significant historical seismicity recorded across the Andean and Pacific regions. The Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC) records an average of approximately 2,500 earthquakes per month, equivalent to around 30,000 per year. However, the overwhelming majority are low-magnitude events that are not felt by the population and are detected only instrumentally. Significant damaging earthquakes are considerably less frequent.
Notable historical earthquakes include: the 1999 Armenia earthquake, a magnitude 6.1 event that killed more than 1,000 people, injured thousands, and caused extensive damage across Colombia’s Coffee Axis; the magnitude 5.5 1983 Popayán earthquake that killed several hundred people and severely damaged large parts of the city; and the magnitude 7.9-8.0 1979 Tumaco earthquake which triggered a tsunami, caused widespread building collapse and killed approximately 600 people.
This earthquake will almost certainly act as a test for the new President Abelardo de la Espriella, who was only recently inaugurated on 7 August. The government’s handling of emergency response, infrastructure disruption, humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction will likely shape initial perceptions of the administration’s competence. This is particularly important given de la Espriella’s narrow and politically contentious election victory, meaning any perceived shortcomings in the response could quickly become a focus for opposition criticism.
Over 100 aftershocks have been recorded. Further aftershocks are highly likely over the coming days and weeks, though they will likely be smaller than the initial quake. These could trigger further landslides, damage already weakened buildings and infrastructure, and disrupt transport and emergency operations, particularly in the most heavily affected areas.
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