Global Intelligence Summary

Overnight 3-4 November, Colombia’s Congress approved legislation 95 to 10 titled the “Submission Law”. President Abelardo de la Espriella signed the law on 4 November. The Submission Law changes the terms offered to individuals affiliated with armed groups who surrender to authorities. The new terms restrict the offer of reduced sentences to those individuals who actively cooperate with authorities by surrendering their weapons and assets and by providing information on their groups’ structures, networks, and finances. Reductions are capped at 50 per cent for rank-and-file members and 30 per cent for leaders.

On 5 November, Colombian media reported that the Colombian Army launched an offensive against dissident groups of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) located in the border area between the departments of Cauca and Valle del Cauca, in the country’s southwest. The Third Division, supported by the Air Assault Aviation Division, fought dissidents in Timba, an area that straddles the departmental border, and the local community was confined during the operation.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The legislation aims to implement President de la Espriella’s stated goal to reverse his predecessor Gustavo Petro’s policy of Total Peace, which allowed the government to negotiate with some armed groups with the aim of disarming them. De la Espriella, who became president in August after defeating Senator Iván Cepeda (one of the architects of Total Peace), campaigned on a tough-on-crime platform and has pledged to implement coercive measures against the country’s powerful armed groups. De la Espriella has integrated Colombia into the US-led Shield of the Americas military coalition, subsequently following this by launching a military offensive against armed groups in several regions.

In November, the administration deployed security forces to protect national media outlets following a series of bomb threats, and announced plans for ten mega-prisons.  De La Espriella has stated that they will be modelled on the Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo (CECOT) facility in El Salvador, a high-security mega prison opened in January 2023 as a central piece of President Nayib Bukele’s crackdown on gangs.

By increasing demands on surrendering armed groups while removing political recognition and negotiation channels such as the peace tables, the new Submission Law almost certainly seeks to end the practice of open-ended disarmament talks, forcing groups to disarm or plausibly face aggressive action from Colombian security forces. The law also highly likely aims to instigate fragmentation and defection within the groups themselves by restricting concessions to those members that actively help authorities dismantle the organisations.

Growing pressure from authorities, both via legislative changes and military operations, is likely to increase the willingness of militant groups to stage larger attacks outside of their normal areas of operation and into large urban centres. Offensives by the armed forces that destroy militant assets in areas like Cauca and Valle del Cauca may also cause them to relocate to other regions, changing the regional threat landscape in Colombia. Additionally, increased fragmentation may intensify competition between splinter factions for control of territory, trafficking corridors, and illicit revenue streams such as extortion and illegal mining, raising the risk of armed clashes, civilian confinement, and displacement, including in areas previously considered relatively stable.