Global Intelligence Summary

On 8 September, Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Barranquilla for a bilateral meeting. The stated intent of the meeting was to improve Colombia-US relations, boost economic recovery and post-earthquake reconstruction, and strengthen hemispheric security, including deeper cooperation against armed groups, organised crime, and drug trafficking. Following the meeting, President de la Espriella reportedly proposed “Plan Patriota Siglo XXI”, a new plan to modernise the Colombian military and security capabilities. The plan, which is linked to the wider Shield of the Americas initiative, aims to modernise aircraft, radar, drones, counter-UAV systems, air defence, intelligence, cyber-defence and special forces capabilities.

The meeting followed a series of notable security incidents in Colombia. The government has conducted a series of strikes targeting militant networks and senior leadership, and on 30 August, de la Espriella also formally ended three peace-dialogue processes inherited from the previous government, stating that armed groups had failed to demonstrate a genuine commitment to peace. On 1 September, the government announced a broader offensive in Norte de Santander aimed at restoring government control. This announcement was followed by a 4 September attack on government forces by the National Liberation Army (ELN), which involved at least 20 explosive-laden UAVs used to attack government troops at a military base in Ocaña, followed by militants engaging soldiers at the facility. Following the attack, the US Embassy issued a separate security alert warning of the elevated threat from armed groups and explosive-drone attacks in Colombia, particularly around military and police facilities.

Solace Global Assessment: 

President Abelardo de la Espriella has continued to make diplomatic, political and military moves indicating that a substantive reversal of the previous government’s “Total Peace” policy is almost certainly underway. Suspending inherited dialogue processes, increasing offensive operations and seeking deeper relations and security relations with Washington all support that the new administration is committing to a counter-insurgency strategy focused on degrading armed groups, restoring state control and targeting militant leadership.

This shift in strategy has already resulted in a series of militant attacks across Colombia, likely primarily aimed at deterring expanded government offensives and strikes on senior leadership. These attacks, which have involved car bombs, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), explosive-laden UAVs and direct assaults on military and police facilities, almost certainly demonstrate that the ELN and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident factions retain the capability to respond asymmetrically to increased government pressure and that the Colombian security forces remain highly vulnerable to these attacks, especially the increased use of UAVs, with Colombian forces currently lacking sufficient counter-UAV coverage to protect thousands of security personnel and facilities dispersed across multiple different regions.

The government’s more aggressive approach is likely to result in a sustained cycle of military operations and militant retaliation over the medium term, with militant attacks likely prioritising the use of stand-off attacks over direct engagements to reduce exposure to increasingly capable government forces. However, this strategy will almost certainly involve the increased use of explosive-laden UAVs, car bombs, IEDs and other weapons that increase the risk of incidental civilian casualties. While most attacks will highly likely be contained to the more conflict-affected departments like Norte de Santander, Arauca, Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Guaviare, there is a realistic possibility that increased government pressure will result in a gradual increase in attacks in larger urban centres and against more strategic and higher visibility targets.