Global Intelligence Summary

On 4 October, the Nicaraguan Foreign Ministry stated that the government would denounce the 1987 treaty establishing the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN) and leave the organisation with immediate effect. Headquartered in Guatemala City, PARLACEN is the regional assembly of the six member states of the Central American Integration System (SICA), and aims to promote integration and peaceful cooperation between the Central American states. The announcement followed a 2 October declaration by the Organisation of American States (OAS) that called on Nicaragua to free all political liberties. Nicaragua had previously left the OAS in 2023.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The decision is almost certainly part of the Nicaraguan government’s sustained campaign to exit international organisations, which are perceived as a threat to the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo. Decoupling from regional organisations and other powers in Latin America has contributed to Nicaragua pursuing a foreign policy increasingly centred on deeper ties with Russia and China and, to a lesser extent, Iran. In May, the Nicaraguan parliament renewed authorisation for Russian military personnel and assets to operate in the country and, for the first time, authorised the deployment of the Chinese military. In September, it allowed the Russian state-funded broadcaster RT to broadcast on free-to-air television. Between 2023 and 2025, Nicaragua secured at least 11 loans from Chinese companies amounting to more than USD 1.4 billion, which have also financed contracts for Chinese companies to build critical infrastructure, such as telecom infrastructure, in the country. In 2023, a visit to the country by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi resulted in the establishment of a joint intergovernmental commission covering economic, commercial, scientific, and technical cooperation.

Nicaragua’s increasingly isolationist foreign policy has likely been reinforced by developments over the past 12 months. The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, and the subsequent imposition of a total fuel blockade on Cuba, have deprived Managua of key regional partners and have left it increasingly “surrounded” amidst a region-wide political shift towards greater alignment with Washington. The regional pivot towards Washington has almost certainly increased Nicaragua’s strategic value to China and Russia.  Increased US pressure has contributed to several regional governments, including Argentina, Panama and Costa Rica, reducing engagement with China and Russia, including by withdrawing from planned infrastructure projects or limiting military cooperation. Nicaragua is also likely aiming to strengthen its position ahead of  the prospect of increased US pressure, particularly if Cuba were to collapse and leave Managua further isolated.

The immediate operational impact of Nicaragua’s withdrawal from PARLACEN is likely to be limited. However, the decision reinforces Managua’s broader political and economic isolation and is likely to increase its reliance on China and Russia for investment, financing, security cooperation and diplomatic support, which is likely to increase the likelihood of further US sanctions against Nicaraguan officials, state-linked organisations and companies involved in strategic sectors or cooperation with sanctioned Russian entities. Further sanctions or restrictions on trade and investment are likely to compound existing economic pressures, undermine confidence in the regime and increase the risk of public unrest.