Global Intelligence Summary

The 4 July celebrations for the 250th anniversary of the American Declaration of Independence will likely coincide with heightened terrorism and civil unrest threats, both in the US and at US diplomatic facilities worldwide.

The announcement of a “total offensive” by the Colombian government against the Central General Staff (EMC) highly likely reflects the growing threat posed by the armed group in the country’s southwest.

It is likely that following a temporary “rally around the flag” effect, the earthquake in Venezuela will become a driver of protests against the current government.

A bomb targeting a Ukrainian oligarch in Monaco will almost certainly result in increased security operations in Monaco and southern France.

By resigning early, Serbian President Vučić likely aims to regain political momentum to run for prime minister amidst ongoing large-scale anti-government protests. Further unrest is highly likely in Serbia in the short term.

Ukraine’s announced 40-day mid- and long-range strikes operation is almost certain to further impact Russia’s economy and ground lines of communication to Crimea. Escalated Russian retaliation strikes are highly likely.

The first exchanges of fire between the US and Iran since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding were likely calibrated to remain sub-threshold, but almost certainly highlight continued high risks of escalation.

Death figures highly likely to rise in heavy flooding in Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, and Nigeria, with an elevated risk of waterborne diseases in the aftermath.

Protests are highly likely on 7 July, Saba Saba Day, in Kenya, following the shooting of a protester in Nairobi during demonstrations over the reported abduction of a businessman by security forces.

Planned protests in Kinshasa on 8 July are likely to go ahead in defiance of the government’s ban on gatherings in the capital and three other DRC provinces; clashes are highly likely.

Further anti-migrant violence is highly likely following calls for weekly protests across South Africa in the wake of a nationwide rally.

A terror attack in Karachi, Pakistan, has been attributed to Afghanistan and is highly likely to result in increased cross-border attacks.

Further INC-organised protests are likely in Manila, the Philippines, following major developments in Senator Marcoleta’s legal proceedings or if church leaders frame the proceedings as politically motivated.