Global Intelligence Summary

On 3 November, US citizens voted in the midterm elections to select all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senators (33 regular contests plus special elections in Ohio and Florida), 39 state and territorial governors, and 33 attorneys general, as well as numerous state and local officials.

The vote returned a convincing victory for the Democratic Party, which US analysts have described as a “blue wave” (after the party’s colour). The Democrats won control of both the House and Senate (securing a majority of four seats and outperforming pre-election polls that suggested narrower margins) from the Republican Party, as well as five governorships previously held by the Republicans.

Democrats achieved decisive results in traditionally Republican-leaning states like Kansas, South Carolina and, most importantly, Texas, where the party flipped both the single contested Senate seat and the governorship from Republican control. The Republican Party failed to flip any Democrat-held House or Senate seats, the first case in more than 20 years, and also lost several House seats that had been redrawn ahead of the vote and were expected to benefit the Republicans. US President Donald Trump told US media in an interview that he accepted the election results.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The election results were influenced by a variety of factors, but the ongoing cost of living crisis, and particularly the approximately 34 per cent increase in gasoline prices in 2026, almost certainly resulted in voters turning to the opposition. The war in Iran, which is largely unpopular among the electorate and is directly correlated with the rise in fuel costs, almost certainly further contributed to the Republican Party’s poor performance.

The election results are likely to have a significant impact on US politics, with the two years ahead of the next presidential elections highly likely to be marked by a political conflict between the executive and the legislature. After the vote, President Trump posted a picture on social media with the single word “VETO”, almost certainly indicating that he will make use of presidential powers to block the legislative initiatives passed by the Democrat-controlled Congress. As the Democratic Party lacks the two-thirds majority required in both chambers to override presidential vetoes, most significant legislation is likely to face protracted political negotiations.

As the president retains considerable authority over foreign policy, and Congress lacks the two-thirds majority required to override presidential vetoes, the Democratic Party is unlikely to significantly constrain Trump’s foreign policy decisions. However, the elections could still impact US foreign policy in the short term. The Democratic Party’s victory has likely removed a key political obstacle influencing US policies towards Iran. President Trump has repeatedly maintained that the midterm elections would not alter his broader objectives towards Iran, although he acknowledged that electoral considerations influenced the timing and scale of US military operations. With the next major elections two years away, the White House may assess that the midterm results have removed a key political restraint on renewed military operations against Iran, which could be authorised and executed with limited advance warning.

The 2026 midterms will likely mark the unofficial start of campaigning for the 2028 presidential election. Within the Republican Party, losses in Texas and other red states, and the overwhelmingly negative electoral performance of policies such as the Iran war, will likely influence the race to succeed Trump as the party’s candidate, with the two likely front-runners being Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Within the Democratic Party, successful House or Senate candidates are likely to build on their momentum to gather support for a 2028 primary campaign. These include candidates like Jon Ossoff, who was re-elected to his Georgia Senate seat by almost 20 points, scoring a politically relevant victory, as Georgia has been a critical swing state during past presidential elections.