Global Intelligence Summary

Further aftershocks are highly likely in Panama over the coming weeks, with a realistic possibility of strong tremors causing additional structural damage and landslides.

Protests in France are highly likely to intensify on 17 October. Protests are likely to result in severe disruptions in large French cities, as well as cases of targeted vandalism and violent clashes between protesters and police.

A series of attacks targeting schools in Poland likely reflects the growing threat of “nihilistic violent extremism ”in European countries, as also recently observed in Sweden and Italy.

Strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are highly likely to further escalate through winter despite the claimed energy ceasefire, and observed reduced early warning almost certainly increases the ballistic missile threat.

Increased Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have almost certainly increased the risk of a major escalation in the Middle East, which would likely be characterised by further escalated attacks against targets in regional states.

With Saudi strikes on Sanaa, Yemen, intensifying and the counteroffensive stalled, further Houthi attacks against airports and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia are highly likely. A near-term de-escalation remains unlikely.

There is a realistic possibility for large-scale civil unrest following the Guinea-Bissau junta’s postponement of the 6 December presidential and legislative elections, which would have transitioned the country to civilian rule.

Islamic State has likely leveraged junta offensives against JNIM in the Sahel to launch a large-scale offensive against the rival Islamist group in the Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger tri-border area.

Ethiopian forces entering the border town of Zalambessa highly likely marks the start of a military buildup along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, which could result in direct clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.

While violent demonstrations across Mauritius have likely peaked following the imposition of overnight curfews, grievances almost certainly remain, risking further violent unrest in the medium-to-long term.

The federal government’s decision to impose emergency rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will almost certainly reduce the immediate threat of civil unrest to Islamabad but increase political instability across Pakistan.

Continued large-scale protests across India indicate that the ongoing youth protests are highly likely to continue, with likely clashes during a planned demonstration at Connaught Place in Delhi and other cities on 16 October.