Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update

UKMTO reporting of five tankers struck by unidentified projectiles in the SoH between 28 September and 1 October likely indicates an uptick in Iranian attacks against vessels using the US-escorted southern corridor, compared with the preceding week, during which comparatively few attacks were publicly reported. This likely reflects a gradual reconstitution of Iranian anti-shipping capabilities and maritime surveillance around the SoH since the large-scale US strikes of 1 September, which a US official stated had bought “at least a month” of reduced threat to shipping.

There is a realistic possibility that CENTCOM will conduct a further round of strikes against Iranian maritime intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), anti-shipping and mine warfare capabilities around the SoH in the coming weeks. On 1 September, CENTCOM conducted a large one-day wave of strikes against analogous targets, in what was described as “mowing the lawn” of Iranian reconstituted capabilities in the SoH. The USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is set to arrive in theatre around mid-October. CENTCOM’s previous large-scale strike package came shortly after a new carrier had entered the theatre.

US strikes would highly likely trigger Iranian retaliation against US military facilities in regional states. Iranian attacks may also extend to other strategic targets, including infrastructure used to circumvent the SoH, such as export terminals, pipelines and storage facilities. The most recent wave of Iranian retaliation strikes against Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan on 8-9 September reportedly involved the use of cluster munition warheads, marking a notable escalation. Iranian retaliation following any further US strikes is likely to be more intense than has typically been observed in previous limited exchanges.

The deployment of additional Patriot batteries to protect Saudi and Qatari energy facilities (potentially Yanbu and Ras Laffan, respectively) is likely an additional indicator that Washington is preparing for the resumption of combat operations against Iran. Additional air defence in Saudi Arabia could also be used to defend against Houthi missiles and UAVs. However, the deployment to Qatar is almost certainly more indicative of concern over direct Iranian retaliation, with the Houthis having no established history of conducting attacks against Qatari territory.

The Houthi attack on the Medina electricity station, following the claimed attempted attack near Mecca earlier in September, almost certainly increases the political sensitivity of the Houthi campaign, with Saudi authorities framing both as attempts to target the Two Holy Mosques. Alongside attacks towards Riyadh, Tabuk and Yanbu, it highly likely demonstrates Houthi capability and intent to strike targets across western and central Saudi Arabia. Further short-notice disruption to civil aviation across a wider area of Saudi airspace is likely.

The reported strikes against high-value targets in the Houthi-controlled capital of Sanaa on 1 October mark a significant expansion of the air campaign. Strikes on Sanaa have been a key indicator and warning of escalated Houthi attacks against Riyadh, Jeddah and other targets beyond southern Saudi Arabia. While the Yemeni IRG military claimed the strikes, they were highly likely to have been conducted or enabled by the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF).

The Houthis will highly likely attempt retaliatory attacks against Riyadh and other strategic targets in the coming days. Previous Houthi attacks targeting Riyadh in the current phase of conflict have been limited, likely in an effort to demonstrate capability and intent without triggering a major escalation. However, following the strikes on Sanaa, it is likely the Houthis will escalate attacks against Riyadh and other strategic locations in Saudi Arabia.

Reports of Houthis massing fighters near the border with Saudi Arabia, if confirmed, would indicate potential preparation for cross-border ground operations. During the previous phase of the Yemeni Civil War between 2015 and 2022, the Houthis conducted multiple cross-border ground incursions into Jazan and Najran provinces, primarily targeting Saudi military positions, border posts and patrols. However, Najran city was also repeatedly targeted by Houthi artillery, mortar and rocket attacks, resulting in civilian casualties.

Pakistan’s public commitment to defend Saudi Arabia by “whatever means” is its clearest signal yet of potential direct involvement in the conflict. Pakistan has already deployed 8,000 troops, two UAV squadrons, 16 fighter jets and air defence to Saudi Arabia. While no further deployments have been made, the existing force posture provides Islamabad with the capacity to transition from defensive support to offensive operations with minimal advance warning. Further attacks on the holy cities or a Houthi ground incursion may cross the threshold for a more direct Pakistani military response.  

The Yemeni IRG’s general mobilisation and the sustained intensity of fighting around Taiz and Lahj, alongside the expansion of the air campaign, highly likely indicate that the conflict in Yemen is entering a more intensive phase. With no observable diplomatic off-ramp, the conflict and its impact on Saudi Arabia are likely to intensify further in the coming weeks.

Travellers and expatriates are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity: