17 – 24 September
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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events
Key Events This Week
Americas
AMER
Mexico
Hurricane Polo is unlikely to make landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coast; however, there is a realistic possibility of localised flooding, landslides and transport disruption in Guerrero and Michoacán.
AMER
Bolivia
The complete removal of the diesel subsidy in Bolivia is likely to trigger nationwide protests despite the country currently being in a state of emergency.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
EMEA
Ukraine
A pro-Putin election victory in Russia has likely increased the chances of a new mobilisation to support expanded military operations in Ukraine to seize the Donbas.
EMEA
Middle East
There is a realistic possibility that the resumption of indirect talks between the US and Iran will result in a temporary de-escalation; however, talks are unlikely to resolve the underlying disputes that resulted in war.
EMEA
Saudi Arabia & Yemen
The Houthis’ first attack on Riyadh since 2022 was almost certainly a response to operations in Sanaa. Future attacks on Sanaa will likely indicate attacks on Riyadh or other cities outside of southern Saudi Arabia.
EMEA
Nigeria
There is a realistic possibility of further protests in Minna, Nigeria, following the deaths of 37 miners at the hands of the paramilitary Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps.
EMEA
Ethiopia
Tigrayan forces’ capture of Tigray’s three main airports and ongoing fighting in Ethiopia’s Amhara and Afar regions highly likely signals the beginning of a second Tigray conflict.
EMEA
South Africa
While the planned 30 September nationwide protests in South Africa are likely to be smaller than the 30 June mobilisation, sporadic anti-migrant violence and clashes are highly likely, with delays likely at border crossings.
Asia Pacific
APAC
Afghanistan & Pakistan
Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan following the bombing of a mosque in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will likely trigger further cross-border attacks.
APAC
Pakistan
Planned PTI protests in Islamabad, Pakistan on 27 September are highly likely to result in significant disruptions and clashes between demonstrators and security forces.
APAC
Thailand
Separatist demands that Thailand grant full independence to the Deep South will likely continue to disrupt peace negotiations and sustain militant violence in Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla provinces.
APAC
Japan
The strongest El Niño event in decades has highly likely increased the severity of typhoons affecting East Asia, including Typhoon Dujuan, which has caused significant disruptions in eastern Japan.
North, Central and South America
Mexico: Tropical Storm Polo intensifies into Category 5 hurricane.
On 22 September, Hurricane Polo intensified into a Category 5 hurricane off Mexico’s Pacific coast, with maximum sustained winds reaching approximately 285 km/h (180 mph). As of 24 September, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that the “outer rainbands” of the “extremely powerful Category 5 Polo” were spreading across southwestern Mexico. The report stated that “Some additional near-term strengthening is possible, and Polo is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few days.”
Hurricane Polo is not expected to make landfall; however, it has triggered tropical storm warnings in Tecpan de Galeana, Guerrero, to Punta San Telmo and Michoacán, and has resulted in alerts from NHC, which has warned of the potential for life-threatening flooding and mudslides inland, as well as dangerous surf and rip currents along the coast.
Solace Global Assessment:
Hurricane Polo is unlikely to make landfall under the current forecast, significantly reducing the likelihood of catastrophic wind damage along Mexico’s Pacific coast. However, the NHC forecasts 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) of rainfall across parts of Guerrero and Michoacán, increasing the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Transport disruption is likely to be concentrated on roads exposed to flooding, landslides and debris flows, particularly in the mountainous areas of Guerrero. There is a realistic possibility of flight disruption at regional airports, including Acapulco and Zihuatanejo, if heavy rain, strong winds or poor visibility affect operations, although there are currently no indications of widespread flight disruption. However, a significant change in Hurricane Polo’s track would almost certainly increase the risk of more severe damage and disruption.
Category 5 hurricanes are very rare on Mexico’s Pacific coast, where the hurricane season typically runs from mid-May to the end of November. Hurricane Otis in 2023 remains the only confirmed Category 5 landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coast in the modern record. However, El Niño has likely increased the residual risk of stronger and more frequent hurricanes in the eastern Pacific this season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assesses El Niño conditions to persist through the remainder of the hurricane season and has warned of five to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific during 2026, compared with a long-term average of around four.
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