Evacuations from High-Risk Locations Call +44 (0)1202 308810 or Contact Us →

Login

9 – 16 July

Global Intelligence Summary

abstract blue banner

Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events

Mark Overington
Mark Overington
Head of Intelligence
Joshua George
Joshua George
Intelligence Analyst
Julian Kett
Julian Kett
Intelligence Analyst
Manfredi Pozzoli
Manfredi Pozzoli
Intelligence Analyst

Key Events This Week

Americas

AMER

USA

The World Cup final, which will be played on 19 July in New Jersey, US, will highly likely worsen traffic in New York City and near the stadium. Plus-40-degree temperatures are likely to pose a threat to spectators.

AMER

Cuba

The three nationwide blackouts that have occurred in Cuba since the beginning of July almost certainly demonstrate a further deterioration in Cuba’s energy crisis and will likely be followed by more outages.

Europe, Middle East and Africa

EMEA

Spain

Protracted heatwave conditions have almost certainly exacerbated wildfires in Spain. Further wildfires are highly likely to occur in the short term, as temperatures are predicted to remain high.

EMEA

Ukraine

Despite efforts made at the Coalition of the Willing summit for anti-ballistic missile programmes, Ukraine’s critical interceptor shortage almost certainly cannot be resolved in the short term, increasing the risk to Ukrainian cities.

EMEA

Black Sea and Sea of Azov

Ukraine’s expanded targeting and successful disruption of Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov are highly likely to result in the increased targeting of Ukrainian vessels and port infrastructure by Russia.

EMEA

Middle East

The US-Iran conflict has likely now entered a higher-intensity phase characterised by regular US strike packages and subsequent Iranian retaliatory strikes against targets in the Gulf states and Jordan.

EMEA

Saudi Arabia

A Houthi attack on southern Saudi Arabia almost certainly represents the most serious rupture in the Saudi-Houthi truce since 2022. A failure to de-escalate would likely draw the Houthis into the broader regional conflict.

EMEA

Nigeria

The charging of ten individuals over methamphetamine production in Nigeria is highly likely indicative of a growing Mexican cartel presence in Africa, which is likely to drive territorial disputes and local violence.

Asia Pacific

APAC

Pakistan

Ongoing violent protests are likely to escalate in Pakistan-administered Kashmir ahead of the 27 July Azad Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly elections.

APAC

Philippines, Mariana Islands, and China

Typhoon Bavi likely indicates that this year’s El Niño is affecting storm formation patterns in the Western Pacific, increasing the exposure for island states that have lower disaster resilience.

North, Central and South America

USA: World Cup Final to be held in New Jersey on 19 July.

On 19 July, the 2026 FIFA World Cup final between Spain and Argentina will be held at the New York New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium), an 82,000-capacity multi-purpose stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The World Cup final will begin at 15:00 local time.

The final has been designated with a Special Event Assessment Rating (SEAR) Level 1, which marks events of the highest international importance. The designation unlocks additional funding and resources for security operations connected with the event. During the day, heightened security measures and road closures will be in place near the stadium and in central New York, where most fans not attending the game are expected to congregate. The primary “neutral” fan zone will be located in Central Park’s Great Lawn.

Solace Global Assessment: 

It is highly likely that all movements within New York and New Jersey, including those in central New York and on key roadways, will be affected by severe traffic throughout the day. Traffic is likely to be most intense between 10:00 and 15:00 local time, and after the match and subsequent trophy presentation ceremony end (likely after 18:00).

In central New York, there will likely be increased traffic around the fan zones in Manhattan, as well as in areas of the city where informal fan gatherings have occurred during the tournament. These include 14th Street in Chelsea (“Little Spain”), Times Square, Corona (“Little Argentina”) and nearby Elmhurst and Jackson Heights. While final pits Argentina against its former colonial ruler, the risk of football-related violence is likely low, with no established history of significant disorder between Spanish and Argentine supporters; however, some football-related disorder remains possible in Times Square and at venues broadcasting the game.

High forecasted temperatures have the potential to pose a threat to attendees at the World Cup final, and US authorities had reportedly considered holding the final in the morning to avoid the hottest hours of the day. On 19 July, available weather forecasts indicate that temperatures in East Rutherford will be around 31 degrees Celsius by kick-off, with up to 60 per cent humidity. Observers have noted that stadiums in previous World Cup games recorded temperatures ten to 15 degrees higher than outside, with perceived temperatures often crossing the 40 degrees Celsius threshold.

Download Full Report