Global Intelligence Summary

On 2 July, the government of Peru imposed a state of emergency (SoE) in 796 districts across 23 regions, as well as the Constitutional Province of Callao, under Supreme Decree No. 097-2026-PCM, due to the expected impact of El Niño. The SoE will remain in effect for 60 days. The decree covers approximately 40 per cent of Peru’s districts, covering areas within the Amazonas, Áncash, Apurímac, Arequipa, Ayacucho, Cajamarca, Huancavelica, Huánuco, Ica, Junín, La Libertad, Lambayeque, Lima, Loreto, Madre de Dios, Moquegua, Pasco, Piura, San Martín, Tacna, Tumbes and Ucayali, as well as Callao.

Under the decree, regional and local governments have been directed to implement immediate risk reduction measures, as well as response and rehabilitation actions, technical coordination, and monitoring. The regulation limits the actions to those directly related to El Niño, which may be adjusted according to safety requirements and findings of the technical studies.

Solace Global Assessment: 

According to the decree, the declaration was issued in response to the imminent threat of intense rainfall linked to the 2026-27 El Niño phenomenon, with heavy rain, flooding, and landslides expected over the coming months. The measure follows assessments from several government agencies, including the National Institute of Civil Defence (Indeci) and the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (Senamhi), which indicate that El Niño is likely to intensify rainfall during the July to September rainy season. According to the Indeci situational report, several regional and municipal governments’ response capacities have already been exceeded, and require the extra funding expected to be provided by the decree.

Peru is one of the most exposed countries in the world to El Niño due to its proximity to the Eastern Pacific, where El Niño-related warming typically results in significant increases in rainfall and often catastrophic flooding. A strong El Niño would almost certainly increase the risk of major flooding and landslides, loss of life, agricultural losses or food insecurity, infrastructure damage, as well as supply chain, business and transport disruption. These developments are also likely to increase the risk of secondary risks, including civil unrest and public health emergencies.

In February 2026, Peru declared a separate SoE after severe rainfall, flooding, and landslides impacted over 700 districts. The episode damaged roads, bridges, homes, and health facilities. The decree was delayed in this instance due to the political crisis following the removal of President José Jerí. The pre-emptive nature of the 2 July decree is highly likely intended to avoid a repeat of the delayed measures and prevent widespread criticism focused on the failures of central government, and has to some extent likely shifted the burden of responsibility onto regional and local authorities.

Coastal regions are already experiencing pressures related to warming waters and El Niño conditions. Peru’s Commission for the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN) has warned that coastal El Niño conditions could continue until February 2027. Fishing communities in northern Peru, including Tumbes near the Ecuadorian border, are already reporting reduced catches and higher operating costs due to the migration of commercially important fish to cooler waters, with prices of several species likely to increase due to a reduced availability of anchovies, which are used as fish food, which has resulted in an extension of the ban of anchovy fishing.  

Estimates indicate that El Niño-related reductions in fish stocks and agricultural yields cost Peru up to five per cent of total revenue during severe events. However, this El Niño has coincided with fuel shortages linked to the war in the Middle East, price increases, and other conditions that are exerting pressure on fishing communities. Furthermore, there have been multiple large-scale protest movements associated with the fishing community in Peru in recent years, including demonstrations staged in Lima. Further economic pressure linked to El Niño, fuel costs and reduced catches is likely to increase the risk of renewed demonstrations, port disruption and roadblocks in Peru.