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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 19 June 2026 – 23 June 2026
- On 19 June, within an hour of a renewed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire coming into effect, Israel conducted further strikes in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah launched drones towards northern Israel.
- On 20 June, Iran’s military headquarters announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing continued conflict in Lebanon. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had tracked no Iranian movements to close the Strait and that traffic continued to flow, while Iran’s own foreign ministry told Iranian media that shipping was operating normally.
- On 21 June, the first round of Qatar and Pakistan-mediated direct US-Iran talks began at Lake Lucerne, Switzerland. Threats from US President Donald Trump to strike Iran again led to the Iranian delegation reportedly threatening to walk out.
- The second day of the Lucerne Summit went ahead on 22 June, with mediators announcing a 60-day roadmap and several working groups on the key issues. Subsequent statements from both parties contradicted each other on agreements made regarding an invitation for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and the release of some frozen Iranian assets.
- On 22 June, an Israeli statement was issued, which said that Israel Defence Forces (IDF) operations will continue in southern Lebanon. Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are scheduled to hold another round of direct talks on 23 June.
- As of 23 June, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman are open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption
On 20 June, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, just three days after it had been reopened as part of the MoU. Khatam al-Anbiya cited Israel’s alleged ceasefire violations in Lebanon and the US failure to implement the first clause of the MoU, the article requiring an immediate end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had tracked no Iranian movements to close the Strait and that traffic continued to flow, while Iran’s own foreign ministry told Iranian media that shipping was operating normally. In response, US President Donald Trump threatened on social media to impose American tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached in 60-days.
On 21 June, the first round of Qatar and Pakistan-mediated direct US-Iran talks began at the Bürgenstock resort on Lake Lucerne, Switzerland, having been postponed from 20 June due to the aforementioned developments. US Vice President JD Vance led the US delegation, which included President Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has become increasingly powerful in Tehran since the outbreak of war on 28 February, led the Iranian delegation, which also included the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi.
During this first day of talks, President Trump threatened on social media to “hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” if Iran did not stop Hezbollah from “causing trouble”. The Iranian delegation lodged a protest and reportedly threatened to walk out, but Vance later said that the Iranians never left the talks.
The second day of the Lucerne Summit went ahead on 22 June, with mediators announcing: a 60-day roadmap, a high-level oversight committee, a US-Iran communication line on the Strait of Hormuz, and a “de-confliction cell” to support adherence to the cessation of operations in Lebanon. Working groups will also be established regarding the nuclear file, sanctions, and monitoring and dispute resolution. Vice President Vance claimed that Iran had agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, possibly within the week. However, Iran’s foreign ministry denied this and stated they had made no such commitment. Furthermore, Araghchi stated that an agreement was reached on the release of some frozen Iranian assets, while Vance said this has not yet happened.
Also on 22 June, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a joint statement with Israel’s Defence Minister and the IDF chief of staff, which said that the IDF will continue “to act decisively to neutralise threats to our soldiers and citizens, destroy terrorist infrastructure, and maintain the security zone in southern Lebanon.” On 23 June, Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are scheduled to hold a round of direct talks, mediated by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 19 and 23 June.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 09:00 UTC on 10 June.
As of 23 June, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 19 and 23 June.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 09:00 UTC on 10 June.
As of 23 June, Kuwait’s airspace is open.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 19 and 23 June.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 09:00 UTC on 10 June.
As of 23 June, Bahrain’s airspace is open.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 19 and 23 June. On 21 June, a large explosion occurred at the Barzan LNG plant in Ras Laffan Industrial City, with authorities stating that at least 13 people were killed and 66 others injured. Due to the high regional tensions, there has been speculation that the explosion was related to Iran. However, Qatari authorities have announced that sabotage has been ruled out, and Qatar Energy has said that the explosion was caused by an operational incident during start-up of operations.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 09:00 UTC on 10 June.
As of 23 June, Qatar’s airspace is open.
UAE
No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 19 and 23 June.
At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 09:00 UTC on 10 June.
As of 23 June, the UAE’s airspace is open.
Oman
No attacks have been reported in Oman between 19 and 23 June.
At least three people have been killed and 16 injured in Oman, as of 09:00 UTC on 10 June.
As of 23 June, Oman’s airspace is open.
Regional Advisory
The MoU has likely reduced the immediate risk of a return to full-scale US-Iran conflict. However, the MoU is highly likely functioning primarily as an extension of the ceasefire, rather than as a substantive or durable peace agreement. The agreement is likely vulnerable to multiple key triggers for ceasefire breakdown, including conflict in Lebanon, disagreements over the nuclear file during negotiations, and continued Iranian efforts to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Continued conflict in Lebanon was the trigger for the first significant challenge to the MoU since its signing on 17 June, with the Iranian military claiming to have again closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, the announced closure has yet to materialise into reduced traffic. There is a realistic possibility that the announcement was used to provide Iran with further leverage just prior to the start of direct negotiations.
The announced continuation of IDF operations in southern Lebanon, if sustained following further Israel-Lebanon talks today on 23 June, is likely to cause further issues for the broader ceasefire. Moreover, President Trump’s multiple stated threats since the MoU’s signing have likely challenged terms within the MoU which preclude the issuance of threats of military force, and the announcement by Iran’s military headquarters of the Strait’s closure directly contravened key terms of the MoU, although this has so far failed to materialise in practice.
It is notable that Iran’s foreign ministry quickly rebuffed the claims from Iran’s military headquarters of the Strait’s closure. Iranian adherence to a ceasefire is likely to be undermined by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has increasingly consolidated power in Tehran, acted independently of the civilian government, and signalled total opposition to US demands. The lack of a fully coherent regime in Tehran with a unified negotiating position almost certainly complicates the negotiation process and increases the likelihood that elements within the IRGC could fail to comply with any agreements made by Tehran’s civilian government and negotiating team.
Furthermore, statements from Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, have highly likely made distinct efforts to characterise Iran’s agreement to the MoU as the responsibility of Iran’s civilian President, Masoud Pezeshkian. This is likely intended to limit domestic criticism of any shift from the maximalist objectives of hardliners, but it also likely highlights the lack of a fully unified negotiating position in Iran.
Travel to the Middle East is likely to remain at a high risk profile until there are clear indications of durable de-escalation, such as a major US force withdrawal or reduction. As long as the current US in-region force posture is maintained, and with multiple triggers for ceasefire breakdown remaining extant, renewed escalation could break out with minimal indicators or warnings.
Confrontations between US and Iranian forces in the maritime domain have been accompanied by continued attacks against some Gulf states since the implementation of a ceasefire on 8 April, demonstrating that the ceasefire framework does not preclude further hostilities. Post-ceasefire Iranian retaliation strikes initially primarily targeted the UAE, but later focused on Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. These post-ceasefire strikes notably escalated in early June, with increased scale and the repeated targeting of Kuwait’s international airport.
Travellers and expatriates are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Jordanian authorities have warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group.
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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