4 – 11 June
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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events
Key Events This Week
America
Mexico
Large-scale teacher union protests aimed at undermining the 2026 FIFA World Cup are likely to continue in Mexico, with protests likely to target host venues, fan zones and transport networks.
Bolivia
The enactment of Law 1740 in Bolivia has almost certainly increased the likelihood of a state of emergency being declared, increasing the risk of a military-led crackdown on nationwide roadblocks across the country.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Northern Ireland
There is a realistic possibility of the violent unrest that followed the attempted murder of a man continuing in Northern Ireland on 12-14 June. Further unrest is likely to occur in the UK following similar security incidents.
Ukraine
Current advantages held by Ukraine due to the mid-range strikes campaign against Russian logistics and the escalated deep-strikes campaign are likely to pressure Moscow to escalate its attacks against Ukrainian cities.
Middle East
The ceasefire in the Middle East has almost certainly come the closest to collapse since 8 April following separate exchanges of strikes between Israel and the US with Iran, with Iran now targeting Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Kenya
Further protests are highly likely in Nanyuki, Kenya, over the planned Ebola quarantine facility following the killing of a third protester by security forces.
South Africa
Security forces in South Africa are highly likely to bolster their presence in Cleveland, Johannesburg, following a mass shooting that killed at least 12, with a realistic possibility for further military deployments.
Asia Pacific
Afghanistan & Pakistan
Militant attacks in northwest Pakistan are highly likely following Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan. There is a realistic possibility of attacks in Pakistani urban centres following renewed hostilities.
Philippines
Death count is highly likely to continue to rise following a 7.8 magnitude earthquake off Mindanao, southern Philippines.
North, Central and South America
Mexico: Large-scale, coordinated teachers’ protests continue ahead of World Cup.
Mexico’s largest teachers’ union, the National Coordinator of Education Workers (Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación, CNTE), has continued to coordinate large-scale and disruptive protests across Mexico ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The protests form part of an ongoing nationwide strike that began in May and have involved thousands of teachers and education workers across multiple states. The CNTE is demanding the repeal of pension reforms, higher wages, improved working conditions and direct negotiations with the federal government.
Mexico City has remained the epicentre of the protest movement. Demonstrators have maintained a large encampment in the capital’s central district and repeatedly disrupted transport networks through marches and by establishing roadblocks. On 5 June, teachers blocked several major roads across the capital, causing significant transport disruption. On 9 June, police prevented a teachers’ march from reaching a stadium scheduled to host FIFA World Cup events. In Mexico City, symbols of the World Cup, such as statues of football players, have been toppled by protesters. On 10 June, protesters warned that they would block access to Mexico City’s Benito Juárez International Airport.
Smaller-scale protests have also been observed in the states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Morelos, Zacatecas and Baja California, where teachers have occupied government buildings, blocked roads and organised strikes. In several locations, protesters have reportedly used fireworks and other improvised projectiles during confrontations with authorities.
Solace Global Assessment:
Large-scale, disruptive and coordinated protests have almost certainly been staged by the CNTE to maximise pressure on the central government ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and have likely been designed to provide minimal time for President Sheinbaum to concede to their demands. The deliberate targeting of symbols of the World Cup, such as player statues, and establishing an encampment near the fan zone in the capital, has almost certainly been designed to signal CNTE’s intent to disrupt the tournament and to increase the political and reputational cost of failing to resolve the dispute before the tournament begins.
With the World Cup scheduled to start on 11 June, and Mexico hosting the first match of the tournament at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on the first day, it is increasingly unlikely that the government will concede before the World Cup begins. CNTE is likely to continue using the tournament as leverage by targeting high-visibility locations and key transport routes, which is likely to disrupt the tournament on the international stage.
CNTE has successfully organised large-scale and coordinated protests across Mexico on multiple occasions. Moreover, several smaller protest movements, such as farmers and transport unions, have threatened to disrupt the tournament. The likelihood of protests during the tournament is becoming increasingly likely, with protesters likely to target fan zones, World Cup venues, transport hubs, airports, border crossings, government buildings and major roads to maximise disruption and achieve maximum visibility.
The government has already deployed security forces to prevent protesters from reaching World Cup venues and to clear or contain demonstrations before the tournament, and is likely to deploy additional forces during the tournament. As a result, there is a high risk of violent clashes, arrests and the use of dispersal tactics during the tournament. If the protests continue to escalate, there is a realistic possibility that security resources will become overstretched, limiting the authorities’ ability to manage both unrest and to effectively protect tournament sites and transport routes.
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