Global Intelligence Summary

From 25-27 May, multiple protests, marches, and roadblocks were reported across Mexico City and several southern Mexican states, as the National Coordinator of Education Workers (CNTE) escalated industrial action ahead of a planned indefinite national strike beginning on 1 June. Demonstrations were concentrated around central Mexico City, particularly near the Zócalo and major transport arteries, resulting in the police using tear gas. Further protests were staged or threatened in Oaxaca, Chiapas, Guerrero, and Michoacán, where the CNTE maintains strong support bases. The CNTE recently rejected a nine per cent pay rise announced by President Sheinbaum during Mexico’s Teachers’ Day on 15 May. The CNTE rejected the rise as insufficient and stated that it did not address pension grievances associated with the 2007 Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers reform.

Solace Global Assessment: 

While the trigger for recent teachers’ protests was the rejection of the nine per cent pay rise, large-scale CNTE-led protests have been ongoing in Mexico since 2007, when government reforms changed pension arrangements for public-sector employees, including teachers. This resulted in higher retirement ages, increased worker contributions, and a shift away from guaranteed state-backed pensions toward individual retirement accounts for many employees. Protests escalated again in 2019 after the López Obrador administration introduced a new education reform that, according to the CNTE, failed to address pension-related grievances.

As one of Mexico’s largest and most active unions, the CNTE is capable of organising large-scale and coordinated protests across Mexico. Previous nationwide protests, such as the 1989 national strikes, have mobilised over 300,000 teachers, with more recent protests attracting tens of thousands of participants. Protests have involved large-scale demonstrations in city centres, especially Mexico City’s Zócalo, as well as roadblocks on major highways, on access roads to airports and on the US-Mexico border, resulting in significant transport disruption, economic losses, and violent clashes between protestors and the police.

The timing of the indefinite strike on 1 June has almost certainly been designed to coincide with the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The tournament, which is being hosted by Canada, the US, and Mexico, is scheduled to begin on 11 June. This provides the Mexican government with a limited window to address CNTE’s demands or risk the union staging large-scale, internationally visible, and highly disruptive protests, which could coincide with several other protest movements, including farmers’ organisations, pensioners, anti-gentrification groups, and the parents of the 43 missing Ayotzinapa students, all of which have previously aligned with the CNTE’s broader anti-reform agenda. To achieve maximum visibility and disruption, there is a realistic possibility that protest movements will target areas and infrastructure used to support the tournament, including airports, border crossings, fan zones, stadium access roads, hotel districts, and major arterial routes into Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, the three Mexican host cities.