Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update

The risk of a return to full-scale conflict in the Middle East, which would likely be characterised by renewed daily Iranian strikes against the Gulf States and Jordan, remains high despite reported progress on a potentially imminent MOU.

The two parties are likely to remain at a diplomatically unresolvable impasse without either side moving on its red lines. The Trump administration continues to make demands for meaningful concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme, particularly the removal of Iran’s HEU, and stated it will not accept Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. However, a statement on social media written by President Trump on 25 May said that the HEU must be turned over to the US or “destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location” with the observance of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This likely represents a concession on US demands, with Tehran having previously indicated willingness to consider dilution of its HEU in Iran, although it is unclear whether this would fulfil President Trump’s continued demand for its ‘destruction’.

Iranian negotiators have reportedly indicated a willingness to open the Strait of Hormuz without tolls in exchange for an end to the US blockade. However, Iran’s foreign ministry stated on 25 May that it will instead charge fees for “environmental protection”. With control over the Strait of Hormuz having been a long-term strategic objective for the Iranian regime, it is highly likely that Tehran will continue to leverage the strait as far as possible for income.

Continuing conflict in Lebanon risks jeopardising the wider US-Iran ceasefire, with Iranian officials telling the media an Israeli attack on Beirut or its southern suburbs “could derail the diplomatic track”. Since Prime Minister Netanyahu recently announced an escalation in Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, the IDF has not yet conducted any strikes in Beirut. However, strikes were conducted in Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) as recently as 7 May, and further such strikes would likely impact the fragile US-Iran negotiations.  

Outside of renewed US-Israeli strikes against Iran, there remains a high risk of tactical miscalculation and/or escalation occurring as the US and Iranian blockades continue, with retaliatory strikes unlikely to be confined to the immediate area of engagement or the maritime domain. This most recently manifested with the 24-26 May escalation, which resulted in US strikes against Bandar Abbas. Unlike the previous US strikes against Bandar Abbas during the de facto ceasefire on 7 May, which also resulted from continued conflict in the maritime domain, the currently ongoing escalation cycle has extended over a period of days with multiple rounds of attack and retaliation. In addition to endangering the negotiation process, there is a realistic possibility of further Iranian retaliation strikes being soon launched against regional targets, particularly the UAE, in response to the US strikes against Bandar Abbas.

Should a framework agreement be reached, the immediate risk of a return to full-scale US-Iran conflict would likely decrease. However, such a framework would likely only be an effective ceasefire extension and not a substantive and lasting peace agreement. Major issues like control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme are likely to remain unresolved.

Moreover, Iranian adherence to any interim framework is likely to be undermined by the IRGC, which has increasingly consolidated power in Tehran, acted independently of the civilian government, and signalled total opposition to US demands. The lack of a fully coherent regime in Tehran with a unified negotiating position almost certainly complicates the negotiation process and increases the likelihood that the IRGC could fail to comply with any agreements made by Tehran’s civilian government.

If the US resumes strikes against Iran, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. The 26 May threats issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader against countries which host US military bases underscore that Iranian retaliation to a resumption of full-scale conflict would likely involve renewed strikes against Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman. Recent leaked classified assessments by US intelligence services indicate that, despite high-intensity US-Israeli strikes, Iran maintains the capability to conduct large-scale long-range strikes across the Middle East, likely for several months, depending on the rate of expenditure.

Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity: