Global Intelligence Summary

On 28 April, President Daniel Noboa signed Decree 370, imposing a curfew from 3 to 18 May between 23:00 and 05:00 across nine provinces and four cantons. The curfew is in force in Guayas, Manabí, Santa Elena, Los Ríos, El Oro, Pichincha, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Esmeraldas, and Sucumbíos, and the cantons of La Maná in Cotopaxi, Las Naves and Echeandía in Bolívar, and La Troncal in Cañar. During the curfew hours, freedom of movement and the inviolability of the home and correspondence are suspended, enabling police and military forces to conduct raids without requiring warrants. Healthcare personnel and uniformed security or emergency response staff remain authorised to move during the curfew hours.

The reason given for signing the decree was the rising homicide rates, with 2,509 in the first four months of 2026; 1,098 of these took place in Guayas province alone. Quito’s inclusion reportedly reflects a “critical scenario” whereby Ecuador’s largest gang Los Choneros and its splinters, Los Lobos and Los Tiguerones, are fighting for trafficking corridors.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Ecuador has had a significant rise in gang-related violence since 2017, with estimates of gang membership ranging from 15,000 to 60,000. Since the emergence of major drug-trafficking gangs, the violence has been mostly confined to coastal regions, with approximately 80 per cent of Ecuador’s violence taking place in coastal provinces due to their importance as transit hubs for cocaine shipments originating from Colombia and Peru. However, the fragmentation of gangs and state pressure mean that gangs are extending their activity deeper inland, with the previously relatively untouched Quito becoming a battleground.

Los Lobos, Ecuador’s second-largest gang, which emerged as an independent criminal group in 2021, has reportedly established itself as the dominant criminal actor in Quito. Recent police activity has confirmed a significant Los Lobos presence, with 17 alleged Los Lobos members arrested in Quito on 29 October 2025, and another seven arrested in the capital on 17 April 2026. Furthermore, reports from January 2024 indicate that Quito’s prison system is under Los Lobos’ control, providing it with a strategic operating base and a source of recruitment.

There are several reasons why Quito is attractive to gangs. Certain sectors of the Quito Metropolitan District, particularly Quito Metropolitan District, including Solanda in the south, Quitumbe in the far south, Calderón in the north/north-east, and Comité del Pueblo in the northern urban area, are vulnerable to gang recruitment due to high rates of unemployment, truancy, a lack of access to higher education, displacement of people from other provinces, and an influx in foreign migration. Additionally, Quito sits on major road networks linking the capital to the coast, Amazon, northern border areas, and central highlands, making it strategically important.

Curfews have been utilised by Noboa’s government in the ongoing conflict against the armed gangs. Previously, a curfew was imposed between 15 and 30 March in Guayas, El Oro, Los Ríos, and Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas. According to government statements, homicides fell nationally by 28 per cent in March, and 1,283 people were captured following the curfew, which was accompanied by the deployment of 75,000 soldiers. However, the use of a curfew has been criticised as damaging to local businesses. The Guayas Chamber of Commerce, for example, reported that 73 per cent of businesses with nighttime activity registered a 40 per cent reduction in overall sales during the previous curfew, and venues primarily open at night, such as entertainment venues, registered losses of between 70 and 80 per cent.

Furthermore, the use of forceful security measures has not coincided with an overall reduction in violence, despite the high rate of arrests. Since the declaration of “internal armed conflict” in January 2024, President Noboa has utilised repeated states of emergency in high-violence areas and deployed the military alongside the police force to conduct raids and mass arrests and has also pushed for the construction of a maximum-security prison inspired by El Salvador’s mega-prison. Since September 2025, the US has designated Los Choneros and Los Lobos as Foreign Terrorist Organisations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists and has assisted with military operations against the groups in Ecuador.

While this has resulted in thousands of arrests of suspected gang members, it has almost certainly produced adverse second-order effects. This has prompted gangs to respond with greater violence, accelerating fragmentation, intensifying inter-gang conflict, and driving groups further inland as they seek to evade state pressure and competition from rival splinter factions. This has resulted in an overall year-on-year increase in homicides nationally, from 970 in 2017 to 9,216 in 2025.

The curfew will highly likely coincide with intensified security operations in Quito, such as the attempted mass arrest of suspected gang members, which could lead to an increased risk of violence in the immediate term. While it is likely to reduce night-time street crime and restrict gang mobility in the short-term, it is unlikely to materially degrade the gangs and is likely to trigger significant business disruptions.