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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 1 May 2026 – 5 May 2026
- On 4 May, Iranian forces launched 15 missiles and four attack drones at the oil terminal in Fujairah, UAE. This marks the first attacks originating directly from Iran against the Gulf States since the implementation of a ceasefire on 8 April.
- Omani officials also reported that a building housing workers was damaged by an “attack” in the Tibat area of Bukha, which is in close proximity to the Emirati border, with “moderate injuries to two expatriates”.
- The attacks followed the 3 May announcement by US President Donald Trump of the new Project Freedom initiative and escalated conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Iranian strikes on the UAE almost certainly represent the most significant escalation since the ceasefire’s implementation on 8 April. However, messaging from US President Donald Trump has so far refrained from stating that the ceasefire has been violated or is no longer in effect.
- There is a high risk of a tactical miscalculation and/or escalation occurring in the maritime domain, with retaliatory strikes unlikely to be contained to the immediate area of engagement or the maritime domain.
- If the US and/or Israel resume strikes against Iran in an effort to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. Such attacks would likely involve Iran broadening its targeting, in particular to include oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Emirati port of Fujairah (as it did on 4 April).
- As of 5 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Following the 4 May attacks, flight restrictions have been reactivated in the UAE.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption
From 8 April to 4 May, with the implementation of a temporary ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks continued at reduced rates, primarily originating from Iraqi territory. On 4 May, Iranian forces launched 15 missiles and four attack drones at the oil terminal in Fujairah, UAE, injuring three workers and causing a “large fire” at the facility. This marks the first attacks originating directly from Iran against the Gulf States since 8 April. As of 5 May, no further attacks have been recorded against the Gulf States.
Omani officials also reported that a building housing workers was damaged by an “attack” in the Tibat area of Bukha, which is in close proximity to the Emirati border, with “moderate injuries to two expatriates”.
The attacks followed the 3 May announcement by US President Donald Trump that US forces would “guide [third countries’] Ships safely out” of the Strait of Hormuz, under the new Project Freedom initiative. Iranian officials rejected the US plan, stating that all transits must be coordinated through Tehran.
On 4 May, several Iranian attacks against vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were recorded, with at least one vessel being damaged near Umm al Quwain, UAE. US forces reported to have engaged and sunk seven Iranian fast attack craft between 4 and 5 May after Iranian vessels attempted to strike US Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command denied claims by Iran that US vessels were successfully struck, and Iranian officials claimed that the vessels sunk by the US were civilian-operated.
As of 5 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Following the 4 May attacks, flight restrictions have been reactivated in the UAE.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 1 and 5 May.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.
As of 5 May, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 1 and 5 May.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.
As of 5 May, Kuwait’s airspace is open.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 1 and 5 May.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.
As of 5 May, Bahrain’s airspace is open.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 1 and 5 May.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.
As of 5 May, Qatar’s airspace is open.
UAE
On 4 May, UAE authorities reported that their forces had intercepted an Iranian wave of attack drones and missiles targeting the Fujairah oil industry zone (FOIZ). UAE officials claimed that 12 Iranian ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four attack drones were launched by Iran, resulting in injuries to three workers and a “large fire” at the facility. At least four missile alerts were issued by UAE authorities on 4 May, and air raid sirens were recorded across UAE territory, including Dubai, due to the attack. The attack was the first to target the UAE since the implementation of a ceasefire on 8 April.
The Iranian-backed hacker group Handala claimed to have carried out a cyber attack targeting FOIZ just before the kinetic strike.
At least 13 people have been killed and 227 injured in the UAE, as of 20:00 UTC on 4 May.
As of 5 May, the UAE’s airspace is open. On 4 May, the UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority announced a lifting of the previous “temporary precautionary measures” that were in place and a return to full air operations. However, the wave of Iranian strikes later on 4 May did lead to flight suspensions and the diversion of several inbound flights. Authorities announced on 5 May that previous restrictions and emergency security protocols would be reactivated until 11 May following the attacks. As of 5 May, most flights continue to operate at the UAE’s international airports, although the rate of delays is higher than is typical.
Oman
Omani media reported that, on 4 May, a residential building housing company employees in the Tibat area of Burkha province “was targeted in an attack”, resulting in two workers being injured and some localised damage. As of 5 May, only limited information has been published on the nature of the attack or its connection with the conflict. However, the reported locations’ close proximity to the border with the UAE and Bukha’s location between Iran and Fujairah, UAE, may indicate that the projectile was not deliberately targeting Omani territory.
At least three people have been killed and 16 injured in Oman, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April. If the Tibat strike is confirmed, it would raise the casualty toll to 18 injured.
As of 5 May, Oman’s airspace is open.
Regional Advisory
Continuing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, which have notably escalated, have almost certainly increased the risk of a return to full-scale conflict, with the US and Iran essentially in a stalemate. Washington almost certainly intends to pressure Iran to make concessions on the nuclear file via its blockade, due to an assessment that Iran only has a limited time remaining to store oil before it is forced to shut in its oil production. Tehran highly likely calculates that the US will not be able to tolerate a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranian strikes on the UAE (and if confirmed, those targeting Oman) almost certainly represent the most significant escalation since the ceasefire’s implementation on 8 April. However, messaging from US President Donald Trump has so far refrained from stating that the ceasefire has been violated or is no longer in effect.
Iranian officials have not confirmed or denied responsibility for the attacks. However, Iranian state television broadcast a statement that blamed “US military adventurism” for the attacks, and the anti-regime media outlet Iran International has reported that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed strong anger over the actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reportedly describing them as “completely irresponsible”.
The widely reported consolidation of power by IRGC hardliners, with multiple sources indicating that IRGC commander Major General Ahmed Vahidi is now effectively in control of regime decision-making, almost certainly increases the risk of further escalatory attacks by Iranian forces and reduces the likelihood that Tehran can be compelled to make significant concessions that could be perceived as conceding to the US.
There is a high risk of a tactical miscalculation and/or escalation occurring in the maritime domain, with retaliatory strikes unlikely to be contained to the immediate area of engagement or the maritime domain. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s primary source of leverage, and US attempts to deprive Tehran of this are highly unlikely to go unanswered by the IRGC, increasing the potential for a renewed regional escalation as a result of Project Freedom.
The UAE was highly likely targeted due to multiple factors, including: Fujairah’s critical role as an oil export terminal which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, therefore reducing Iranian leverage through the Strait’s closure; the UAE’s reported increasingly close security partnership with Israel; and potentially the increasing isolation of the UAE among the Gulf States following its withdrawal from OPEC and increasing rivalry with Saudi Arabia.
It is unlikely that the US blockade will be capable of compelling Iran to make immediate concessions, with revised timelines for remaining Iranian oil storage capacity extending into a period of months rather than days, due to factors such as Iran being able to use tankers as floating storage. Outside of the current stalemate, Washington may calculate that a return to conflict is the only means to force compliance from Tehran.
If the US resumes strikes against Iran in an effort to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. Such attacks would likely involve Iran broadening its targeting, in particular to include assets and infrastructure that enable the Gulf States to export oil and gas by circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, such as oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Emirati port of Fujairah (as it did on 4 April).
Iran has repeatedly threatened that its forces are ready and prepared to resume full-scale attacks, with the military highly likely to have exploited the ceasefire to improve its offensive and defensive positions. Furthermore, Iranian forces have reportedly moved transporter erector launchers (TELs) out of range of some US long-range fires. The movement of TELs deeper into Iran may reduce the proportion of Iran’s ballistic missile force able to range Israeli territory, potentially increasing the likelihood that these systems are instead used against Gulf states if full-scale conflict resumes.
Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Jordan has warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.

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