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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 10 Apr 2026 – 14 Apr 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
- Since 8 April, with the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks have continued at far lower rates, with unconfirmed points of origin.
- Both Iran and the US almost certainly remain incentivised to continue negotiations in the immediate term, although the ceasefire remains highly fragile and could break down rapidly with minimal advanced warning.
- On 11 April, the US began engaging in Pakistan-mediated talks with Iran. However, on 12 April, the talks ended without an agreement.
- Despite the failure of the Islamabad post-ceasefire talks to produce a peace agreement, neither side has declared an end to talks or the ongoing two-week truce.
- Sources indicated on 14 April that a second round of post-ceasefire talks may occur later this week.
- On 12 April, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Iraqi Ambassador following alleged low-scale drone attacks targeting Gulf States that are claimed to have originated from Iraq.
- On 11 April, unconfirmed Bahraini media reports stated that one attack drone was intercepted over the past 24 hours in Bahrain.
- As of 14 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: US, Iran Announce Two-Week Ceasefire
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure.
Since 8 April, with the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks have continued at far lower rates with unconfirmed points of origin. The two-week ceasefire agreed late 7 April remains in effect and is due to expire on 21 April.
On 11 April, the US began engaging in Pakistan-mediated talks with Iran. However, on 12 April, the talks ended without an agreement. According to a US official, Iran did not agree to several “red lines” set by US President Donald Trump’s administration, including an end to all uranium enrichment, the dismantling of all major uranium enrichment facilities, and the removal of the stockpile of highly enriched uranium from the country. Additionally, Iran reportedly refused to end funding for proxy militant groups across the region and did not agree to fully open the Strait of Hormuz without charging a toll for passage.
On 12 April, President Trump stated on social media that the US will start “BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz”, after Iran allegedly failed to open it. The US blockade of the Strait came into effect at 1400 UTC on 13 April.
Sources indicated on 14 April that a second round of post-ceasefire talks may occur later this week.
As of 14 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been confirmed in Saudi Arabia between 10 and 14 April. However, on 12 April, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Iraqi Ambassador following alleged low-scale drone attacks targeting Gulf States that are claimed to have originated from Iraq.
On 14 April, Qatari, and Saudi foreign ministers discussed ceasefire talks between the US and Iran and plans to solidify cooperation to stop escalation and further fighting.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 16:45 UTC on 13 April.
As of 14 April, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
On 11 April, Kuwait stated it arrested 24 people it accuses of involvement in an unspecified “plot that aims to undermine national security and finance terrorist groups and entities”. On 12 April, Kuwait’s military stated that it will conduct disposal operations on explosives and shrapnel from 10:00 local time for two hours, and that explosions may be heard.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 16:45 UTC on 13 April.
As of 14 April, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
On 11 April, Bahrain’s military stated that all defences were at the “highest state of readiness”. On 11 April, unconfirmed Bahraini media reports stated that one attack drone was intercepted over the past 24 hours over Bahrain. The summoning of the Iraqi envoy by Bahrain on 13 April is likely linked to this claimed attempted attack.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 16:45 UTC on 13 April.
As of 14 April, Bahrain’s airspace remains reopened. However, there is still a high rate of flight cancellations. Confirm your flight with your airline before going to the airport; services are limited and can change at short notice.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 10 and 14 April.
On 14 April, Qatari and Saudi foreign ministers discussed ceasefire talks between the US and Iran and plans to solidify cooperation to stop escalation and further fighting.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 16:45 UTC on 13 April.
As of 14 April, while the airspace is unused by almost all commercial carriers, Qatar Airways flights continue to operate several international routes with special permission.
UAE
No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 10 and 14 April.
At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 16:45 UTC on 13 April.
As of 14 April, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
No attacks have been reported in Oman between 10 and 14 April.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 16:45 UTC on 13 April.
As of 14 April, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Despite the failure of the Islamabad post-ceasefire talks to produce a peace agreement, neither side has declared an end to talks or the ongoing two-week truce. Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, has stated that Islamabad will attempt to facilitate a new round of dialogue in the coming days, with sources claiming on 14 April that talks may occur later this week. Both Iran and the US almost certainly remain incentivised to continue negotiations in the immediate term, although the ceasefire remains highly fragile and could break down rapidly with little notice.
President Trump’s imposition of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian or Iran-linked vessels almost certainly raises risks of miscalculation that could lead to renewed escalation, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stating that “any miscalculated move will trap the enemy in the deadly whirlpools in the Strait.”
Further strikes remain possible. Iranian chains of command have almost certainly been designed to endure decapitation strikes by granting significant freedom to local commanders and units to unilaterally act on pre-determined orders. However, this degree of independence has likely increased the risk of Iranian units continuing to fire missiles and drones despite the agreement of a ceasefire. These attacks would likely be considerably lower in volume and intensity compared to previous attacks outside of the current ceasefire conditions. US officials will likely tolerate an initial continuation of Iranian strikes, as these are unlikely to penetrate regional air defences.
Moreover, alleged low-scale continued drone attacks, such as that claimed to have been conducted against Bahrain on 11 April, are most likely to have originated from Iran-backed proxy forces in Iraq. Proxy forces such as the Iran-aligned militias within Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) are highly likely to provide Tehran with a means of applying continued pressure while maintaining plausible deniability of breaking the two-week ceasefire.
The ceasefire almost certainly remains highly unstable, and the issue of the continuation of the war in Lebanon remains a key threat to its continuation. Tehran has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the deal if Israeli attacks continue, while Israeli officials have reiterated their position that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. Israeli and Lebanese government delegations are scheduled to hold direct US-mediated talks in Washington DC on 14 April, with Hezbollah’s leader condemning the talks as “futile”.
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