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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 30 Mar 2026 – 31 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 31 March.
- On 30 March, US President Donald Trump threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and desalination plants if a “deal is not shortly reached” and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately opened. Moreover, an Iranian Health Ministry official claimed on 31 March that a desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island has been out of service since an alleged attack on 7 March.
- President Trump’s threats and Iran’s claims of Qeshm’s desalination plant being out of order almost certainly raise the risk of future Iranian retaliation strikes targeting CNI and desalination plants in the Gulf States. Following President Trump’s initial ultimatum earlier in March, the IRGC-linked FarsNews Agency published a list of potential targets for retaliation strikes, including power and/or desalination plants in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.
- Early 31 March, a spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence stated that Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed a total of seven ballistic missiles launched towards Riyadh.
- The US Embassy in Qatar published an alert on 30 March, stating, “[t]he U.S. Embassy in Doha lifted its shelter in place advisory.”
- Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets, and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 31 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatari airspace is mostly closed but a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 31 March.
On 30 March, US President Donald Trump stated on social media that “[g]reat progress has been made” in claimed discussions with Iran, but that if “a deal is not shortly reached”, and “if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately” opened, the US will “conclude” the war by “completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”.
The threat has been made within the context of a previously set 10-day ultimatum deadline by President Trump (set to expire 20:00 Eastern Time on 6 April), a developing buildup of so far limited US Marines and Army paratroopers, and previously issued threats from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media against power and desalination plants in the region in response to threats against Iranian power plants.
On 31 March, an Iranian Health Ministry official stated that a desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island has been “completely out of service” since an alleged strike earlier in March. On 7 March, Iran accused the US of attacking the desalination plant, with the US and Israel denying the accusations. The following day, on 8 March, an Iranian attack drone strike caused material damage to a desalination plant in Bahrain.
As of 31 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspace remain open.
Saudi Arabia
Late 30 March, Saudi Civil Defence issued warnings for incoming projectiles in Eastern Province and Al Kharj Governorate. Early 31 March, a spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence stated that Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed a total of seven ballistic missiles launched towards Riyadh in two separate salvos involving four and then three missiles. The Ministry of Defence later also reported the interception of a ballistic missile launched towards Eastern Province.
Attack drone debris on 31 March reportedly resulted in damage to at least six homes in Al Kharj, with no injuries initially reported; however, later reports from Saudi Civil Defence stated that attack drone debris resulted in two minor injuries and limited material damage to three houses and several vehicles in Al Kharj. The Ministry of Defence stated that it had intercepted ten attack drones in the past few hours, at 05:28 UTC, 31 March.
At least two people have been killed and 20 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 13:30 UTC on 30 March.
As of 31 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open. On 30 March, air operations were briefly suspended at King Fahd International Airport (DMM) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.
Kuwait
An Indian worker in Kuwait died after being struck by falling debris from an Iranian missile on 30 March. Overnight 30-31 March, the Kuwaiti Army stated that air defences were “confronting hostile missile and drone attacks”, urging the public to adhere to security and safety instructions issued by the competent authorities.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 13:30 UTC on 30 March.
As of 31 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Overnight 30-31 March, sirens sounded across Bahrain, with the public urged to take shelter. Iran claimed to have struck the residence of the US Fifth Fleet commander during an earlier attack drone strike in Bahrain.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 13:30 UTC on 30 March.
As of 31 March, the Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. Passengers wishing to depart the region have been able to depart via King Fahd International Airport (DMM) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, depending on the operational status of the airport (with operations being frequently temporarily suspended for short periods of time), the King Fahd Causeway, and shelter-in-place advisories.
Qatar
On 30 March, Qatar’s Ministry of Defence announced that an unspecified number of attack drones targeted Qatar, but all were intercepted. On 31 March, the Qatari government affirmed that Qatar’s food security remains “highly stable and excellent”, promising a continuity of services under all circumstances.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 13:30 UTC on 30 March.
As of 31 March, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission.
UAE
On 30 March, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation confirmed that a ballistic missile strike hit a fully loaded tanker off the coast of Dubai, sparking a fire. No injuries were reported, and the fire was subsequently extinguished. Overnight 30-31 March, authorities stated that air defences were intercepting a ballistic missile threat. Furthermore, a telecommunications building in Sharjah was impacted by attack drones with no injuries reported, and debris from interceptions reportedly injured at least four people and sparked a fire in the Al Badaa area of Dubai, according to officials. Air defences were reactivated on 31 March, with explosions heard above Dubai.
At least 11 people have been killed and 178 injured in the UAE, as of 13:30 UTC on 30 March.
As of 31 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 13:30 UTC on 30 March.
As of 31 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, including oil and gas infrastructure, desalination facilities, and airports. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to carry out further attacks on US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
US President Donald Trump’s threats against Iran’s critical national infrastructure (CNI) and desalination plants, which have been additionally followed by Iranian claims of a desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island being out of service since an alleged 7 March attack, almost certainly raise the future risk of Iranian retaliation strikes targeting CNI and desalination plants in the Gulf States.
Following President Trump’s initial ultimatum earlier in March, the IRGC-linked FarsNews Agency published a list of potential targets for retaliation strikes. These included the Aqaba and Al-Samra thermal power plants in Jordan; the Ras Al-Khair (north of Dammam) and Al-Shu’iba (south of Jeddah) power and desalination plants in Saudi Arabia; the Al-Zour power and desalination plant in Kuwait; the Al-Dur power and desalination plant in Bahrain; the Umm Al-Hol power and desalination plant and the Ras Laffan/Ras Qartas power and desalination plant in Qatar; and the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant and Tawilah Desalination Plant in the UAE, each in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes.
US and/or Israeli targeting of Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, power plants, and economic interests such as banks, in addition to the killing of senior Iranian military or political officials, will each likely trigger increased rates of Iranian strikes in retaliation, as has occurred earlier in the conflict. Furthermore, the potential involvement of US and/or Israeli ground forces to conduct operations in Iran’s Kharg Island against Iran’s buried enriched uranium at Isfahan and Natanz, or the Iranian coastline around the Strait of Hormuz, would also likely trigger intensified Iranian retaliation strikes.
Interception rates across the region remain high, although they have notably decreased since the start of the conflict, with numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. Reporting indicates that the volume of both Iranian ballistic missiles and attack drones launched at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US/Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high enough to conduct daily attacks, and Iran continues to be capable of launching lower-volume ballistic missile attacks, particularly at high-value targets (HVTs) such as oil and gas infrastructure.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.” In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with around 70 British nationals reported to have been arrested for filming drones and missiles, for example. In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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