Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update

On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 23 March.

On 21 March, US President Donald Trump gave a 48-hour ultimatum (expected expiry at approximately midnight UTC, 23 March) to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, or the US and Israel would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants. In response, Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that Iran would “irreversibly destroy” critical national infrastructure across the region. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked FarsNews Agency published a list of potential targets, which included major power plants and desalination plants across the region.

On the morning of 23 March, President Trump stated on social media that due to “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Iran, he had “INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPΟΝΕ ΑΝΥ AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.”

As of 23 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling a highly limited number of departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission, but the airspace is effectively closed to almost all commercial flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains restricted, although arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are now allowed after permission has been given. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.

Saudi forces carried out several missile and drone interceptions during the 20-22 March period. At least two ballistic missiles fell into uninhabited areas. Riyadh region, the Eastern Province, and Al-Kharj governorate remained the areas most targeted by Iranian projectiles. On 23 March, Saudi authorities claimed to have intercepted at least four drones over the Eastern Province and two ballistic missiles over the Riyadh region, with an additional missile falling in an uninhabited area.

On 21 March, the Saudi Foreign Affairs Ministry announced that it had declared several Iranian military attaché officials and embassy staff personae non gratae, following the Iranian attack on Yanbu refinery. On the same day, international media reported that Saudi authorities had decided to authorise US forces to utilise the King Fahd Air Base in Taif for strikes against Iran.

The threats issued by IRGC-linked media against critical national infrastructure in the region, if the US conducts attacks against Iranian power plants, included the Ras Al-Khair (north of Dammam) and Al-Shu’iba (south of Jeddah) power and desalination plants in Saudi Arabia.

At least two people have been killed and 20 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 09:00 UTC on 23 March.

As of 23 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports.

On 22 March, the Kuwaiti military stated they had intercepted four drones, with three additional ones crashing in uninhabited areas. Kuwaiti officials have reiterated their calls on residents to “adhere to the security and safety instructions issued by the competent authorities”.

The threats issued by IRGC-linked media against critical national infrastructure in the region, if the US conducts attacks against Iranian power plants, included the Al-Zour power and desalination plant in Kuwait.  

At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 09:00 UTC on 23 March.

As of 23 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.

Between 20 and 23 March, Bahrain activated its air raid sirens multiple times, with the public urged to take shelter. On 22 March, Bahraini officials stated that more than 246 drones and 145 missiles from Iran have been intercepted since the start of the conflict in late February.

The threats issued by IRGC-linked media against critical national infrastructure in the region, if the US conducts attacks against Iranian power plants, included the Al-Dur power and desalination plant in Bahrain.

At least two people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 09:00 UTC on 23 March.

As of 23 March, the Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. Bahrain is enabling a highly limited number of departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission, but the airspace is effectively closed to almost all commercial flights.

On 22 March, a military helicopter carrying Qatari and Turkish personnel crashed in Qatari territorial waters. According to authorities, the crash, which killed seven people, was caused by a “technical malfunction” and occurred during a “training exercise”.

The threats issued by IRGC-linked media against critical national infrastructure in the region, if the US conducts attacks against Iranian power plants, included the Umm Al-Hol power and desalination plant and the Ras Laffan/Ras Qartas power and desalination plant in Qatar.

At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 09:00 UTC on 23 March.

As of 23 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. Arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are allowed after permission has been given.

The United Arab Emirates faced repeated Iranian missile and drone threats over the weekend, with Emirati authorities activating air defences multiple times. On 21 March, explosions were heard in Ras al-Khaimah as air defences responded to an Iranian attack. On 22 March, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence said it responded to four Iranian missiles and 25 drones. Late 22 March and into 23 March, authorities again warned residents to remain in safe locations as air defence systems were activated, and the military later said it had engaged seven Iranian ballistic missiles and 16 drones. Late 22 March, local authorities said at least one Indian national was injured after debris from a missile interception fell in the Al Shawamekh area of Abu Dhabi. On 23 March, the Habshan gas processing plant reportedly resumed operations after last week’s attack prompted a suspension.

The threats issued by IRGC-linked media against critical national infrastructure in the region, if the US conducts attacks against Iranian power plants, included the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant and Tawilah Desalination Plant in the UAE, each in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.

At least eight people have been killed and 160 injured in the UAE, as of 09:00 UTC on 23 March.

As of 23 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.

In a claimed written statement by Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Nowruz (Persian New Year), 20 March, Khamenei denied that attacks carried out against Oman were conducted by Iran’s armed forces or Iranian proxy forces, effectively claiming that the attacks were ‘false flag’ attacks by the US and Israel. This is almost certainly reflective of distinct efforts by the surviving central political leadership of Tehran to distance themselves from the attacks against Oman, given Oman’s key role in previous mediation efforts between the US and Iran.

Separately from the Middle East conflict, heavy rainfall through 22 March has led to weather warnings being issued by authorities, including in Muscat, with flash flooding recorded in Al-Musannah, Wadi Al Maawil, Seeb, and Sur.

Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring UAE and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.

At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 09:00 UTC on 23 March.

As of 23 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.