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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 15 Mar 2026 – 16 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 16 March.
- On 16 March, Saudi Arabian defence officials stated that air defences had intercepted at least 64 attack drones in Riyadh and Eastern Province. The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March. The areas most targeted are Riyadh, Al-Kharj (where the Prince Sultan Air Base is located), and the Eastern Province (where key Saudi oil refineries are located).
- Early 16 March, an attack drone struck fuel tanks in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport (DXB), prompting a temporary suspension of operations at the airport. DXB resumed operations later on 16 March.
- Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 16 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
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Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 16 March.
As of 16 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains restricted, although arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are now allowed after permission has been given. The airspace remains closed to overflights. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.
Saudi Arabia
On 16 March, Saudi Arabian defence officials stated that air defences had intercepted at least 64 attack drones in Riyadh and Eastern Province. These reportedly include a wave of at least 34 drones fired within one hour. The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March. The areas most targeted are Riyadh, Al-Kharj (where the Prince Sultan Air Base is located), and the Eastern Province (where key Saudi oil refineries are located).
On 15 March, US media reported allegations that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has privately encouraged the US administration to continue and intensify the attacks on Iran. Some Saudi officials have denied these claims on 16 March, speaking to regional media. There is a realistic possibility that the intensification of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia reflects Tehran’s view of Riyadh’s support for the US/Israeli attacks.
At least two people have been killed and 12 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.
As of 16 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports.
Kuwait
On 16 March, the Kuwait National Guard announced that its task force shot down two attack drones in the past 24 hours. On 15 March, Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence stated that three soldiers sustained light injuries caused by shrapnel from intercepted attack drones. According to the ministry, 14 attack drones were detected over the previous 24 hours; eight of them were destroyed.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.
As of 16 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Overnight 15-16 March, Bahrain’s media reported interceptions over the country’s airspace, following the activation of air raid sirens.
At least two people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.
As of 16 March, the Bahraini airspace is heavily restricted. On 13 March, Bahrain amended its airspace closure, enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission.
Qatar
On 16 March, Qatar’s Defence Ministry stated that its armed forces intercepted a second wave of missiles, following an earlier wave intercepted over Doha. Before the attack, Iran warned residents to evacuate Lusail, Al Waab, and Ain Khaled. On 15 March, Qatar’s Defence Ministry stated that it intercepted several attack drones over the country’s airspace.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.
As of 16 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. Arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are allowed after permission has been given. The airspace is still closed for overflights.
UAE
On 16 March, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence claimed that six ballistic missiles and 21 attack drones were intercepted. Early 16 March, an attack drone struck fuel tanks in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport (DXB), prompting a temporary suspension of operations at the airport. DXB resumed operations later on 16 March. Authorities in Abu Dhabi announced that a Palestinian national was killed after “a rocket” fell on a civilian vehicle in the Al Bahya area. Authorities in Fujairah stated that civil defence was responding to a fire in a petrochemical industrial area following a drone attack, with no injuries reported.
At least seven people have been killed and 145 injured in the UAE, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.
As of 16 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. Following a drone attack against Dubai International Airport (DXB) early 16 March, flights running from DXB were temporarily suspended. DXB resumed operations later on 16 March.
Oman
Reflective of the lower number of attacks conducted against Oman in comparison to other Gulf States, Oman’s ministry of transport, communication and information technology (MTCIT) is building “regional food depots to establish a secure supply chain to its Gulf neighbours via land borders”. This is to bypass maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which has become high risk to transit due to Iranian attacks.
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.
As of 16 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to carry out further attacks on US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
While interception rates overall remain high, there have been numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates that the volume of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended ballistic missile stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US-Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with at least 45 people being arrested so far, including a British tourist who allegedly filmed missile strikes in Dubai. In Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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