In a landmark decision, sixteen senior leaders of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) have declared the dissolution of their notorious jihadist network. This unexpected announcement marks the end of a group with deep roots in Southeast Asian extremism, primarily operating in Indonesia. But what does this mean for the region’s future security?

Jemaah Islamiyah was founded in 1993, emerging from Darul Islam with grand ambitions of establishing a transnational caliphate across Southeast Asia. Over time, this vision narrowed to creating an Islamic state within Indonesia. During the early 2000s, JI was responsible for several high-casualty terrorist attacks, including the devastating 2002 Bali bombings. Despite significant crackdowns, JI managed to rebuild under Para Wijayanto, focusing on religious outreach and cadre training over direct militant actions.

Three main factors influenced JI’s decision. First, the group operates numerous religious schools, and changing their curriculum to orthodox Islam aims to protect these institutions from government crackdowns. Second, JI has been transitioning towards a political role, aiming to gain legitimacy in Indonesia, similar to the Muslim Brotherhood. Third, effective targeting by Indonesian forces, particularly Detachment 88, has pressured JI’s leadership to reconsider their strategy.

The disbandment of Jemaah Islamiyah could lead to several significant outcomes. One possibility is that the dissolution represents a genuine step towards deradicalisation, showcasing the effectiveness of Indonesia’s counterterrorism efforts and resulting in a notable decrease in the terrorist threat.

Alternatively, some experts suggest the disbandment could be a strategic move designed to mislead authorities. In this scenario, JI might continue its operations covertly, using the disbandment as a facade to evade security crackdowns while secretly maintaining its network and capabilities.

A third potential outcome is the emergence of splinter groups. Disgruntled members of JI may form new militant factions or join other existing jihadist groups, such as those aligned with Islamic State (IS). This development could potentially elevate the terrorism threat across the region, as these new or reinforced groups strive to establish themselves and gain influence.

Understand the full scope of JI’s disbandment and its implications for Southeast Asia’s security landscape in the full report.