Election Guide: Q1 2025

How Will Upcoming Elections Shape Global Stability?

10 January 2025

Discover the key elections happening worldwide in Q1 2025 with our comprehensive Election Guide. These pivotal votes have the potential to reshape political dynamics, influence policy directions, and play a role in the future of global stability.

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Here’s what’s inside:

Belarus: Presidential Election 26 January

Will Lukashenko’s Grip on Power Ignite Post-Election Protests?

With opposition leaders jailed and civil society dismantled, Belarus heads into a presidential election heavily tilted in President Lukashenko’s favor. While constitutional reforms introduced term limits, they don’t apply to the long-standing leader. Backed by Russia and buoyed by economic ties despite Western sanctions, Lukashenko’s position appears secure. What remains uncertain is whether the vote will spark unrest, as it did in 2020, and how the regime might respond.

Kosovo: Parliamentary Elections 9 February

Will Kosovo’s Vote Bridge Divides or Deepen Polarisation?

As Kosovars prepare to vote in the country’s first regular parliamentary election since independence, key issues such as relations with Serbia and LGBTQ+ rights dominate the political landscape. Incumbent Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement is favoured to win, but tensions with ethnic Serb communities and conservative opposition to proposed civil partnership legislation could lead to protests.

Ecuador: Presidential (1^st round) and Parliamentary Elections 9 February

Is Ecuador Heading Toward More Election-Driven Violence?

As Ecuador heads to the polls for presidential and parliamentary elections, public safety and organised crime dominate the political landscape. Incumbent President Daniel Noboa faces a challenge from Luisa Gonzalez, backed by exiled former President Rafael Correa. Noboa’s hardline approach to combating drug cartels and organised crime has sparked debate, with rising violence testing its effectiveness. With Ecuador’s homicide rate soaring and memories of past election-related violence still fresh, the 2025 elections may become a referendum on the government’s ability to restore security.

Germany: Presidential Elections 23 February

Can Germany Hold Back the Rising Tide of Far-Right Politics?

Germany’s upcoming parliamentary elections follow the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government and come amid economic stagnation, rising populism, and growing polarisation. The CDU leads the polls, but the far-right AfD’s rise and the emergence of new parties like the BSW signal shifting political dynamics. As Germany grapples with security concerns, immigration debates, and international pressures, the election outcome will likely have significant implications domestically and across the European Union.

Tajikistan: Parliamentary Elections 2 and 28 March

Will Tajikistan’s Vote Test Stability or Trigger Unrest?

As Tajikistan prepares for parliamentary elections, President Emomali Rahmon’s regime is expected to maintain its grip on power in a tightly controlled political environment. With civil society heavily repressed and opposition parties banned, the elections are unlikely to bring significant change. However, rising tensions in minority regions, a history of violent crackdowns, and growing threats from Islamist groups like ISKP add layers of uncertainty.

Comoros: Parliamentary Elections 12 January 2025

Can Comoros Contain Political Tensions Amid Growing Turmoil?

As Comoros heads to the polls for its parliamentary elections, political tensions and inter-island rivalries dominate the landscape. Following the widely disputed 2024 presidential election, opposition parties are boycotting the vote, paving the way for President Azali Assoumani’s party to consolidate power further. With frustrations mounting over authoritarian governance, economic stagnation, and the sidelining of smaller islands, the elections risk becoming a flashpoint for violent unrest.