Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49

Headlines From This Week

  • The United States Recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – In a highly controversial move, President Trump, on 06 December, announced his intention to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, signifying that the US views Jerusalem as the country’s capital (the international community views Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem as illegal). This move is expected to damage the peace process and has led to protests in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and across the Muslim world. The policy shift has been criticised by regional and global allies of the United States.
  • Former President Saleh Killed – Yemen’s former President was killed by Houthi rebels on 04 December, just days after making peace overtures to the Saudi-led coalition, his opponents in the country’s civil war. Saleh and his followers had allied with the Houthis in the ongoing conflict. He had been described as Yemen’s only chance for peace. His death is likely to complicate the peace process.
  • ELN and FARC Clashes – 13 people were killed in clashes between the militant National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, officials confirmed on 05 December. The clashes occurred close to the Ecuadorean border as ELN guerrillas sought to disarm a local farmers’ resistance group. FARC have disbanded after years of fighting an insurgency and became a legitimate political party after accords with the government came into force this year. ELN are also seeking a peace deal with the government but these clashes would appear to break the three-month ceasefire the group have with the government.
  • Russia Banned from 2018 Olympics – The International Olympic Committee (IOC) have banned Russia from the 2018 Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea due to drug doping issues. Clean athletes will still be able to attend under a neutral flag. The presence of Russian (and Chinese) athletes at the Games decreases the likelihood of a North Korean military attack.
  • Fires in California – At least 200,000 people have been evacuated as wildfires spread across southern California. By 08 December, fires had been raging for five days, aided by dry and windy weather which is expected to last until 10 December. More than 57,000 hectares have been scorched across the state and 5,700 firefighters are trying to contain six large wildfires. Los Angeles county is affected by three fires while Riverside, Ventura, and San Diego counties are all subjected to one fire apiece.
  • Former President Kirchner Indicted – A judge in Argentina has indicted former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner on treason charges over allegations that she covered up possible Iranian involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre. This move has already been met by pro-Kirchner protests in the capital.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Anti-US Protests Planned Worldwide – Travellers are advised that the unrest in response to the US’ plan to move its Israeli Embassy to Jerusalem are unlikely to subside in the short run. Protests are expected to continue in the region and further afield. US Embassies are set to face unrest in Canada, Ireland, the UK, France, Belgium, Morocco, and elsewhere. Such protests should be avoided as violence is a possibility.
  • WTO Conference – The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) Ministerial Conference is to take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina from 11-13 December. 5,000 WTO delegates are set to attend. Road closures and heightened security is anticipated near Puerto Madero, Centro Cultural Kirchner, and the University of Buenos Aires School of Law.
  • Jammu and Kashmir General Strike – ‘All Parties Hurriyat Conference’, a separatist group, has called on its supporters to engage in a Dawn to Dusk shutdown strike on 10 December. The move is in line with International Human Rights Day. A rally is due take place to the UN Military Observers’ headquarters in Srinagar. Violence is possible during this period.

Significant Dates & Events

  • 09 December – Tanzania Independence Day
  • 10 December – Transport strikes in Valencia, Spain
  • 10 December – Municipal Elections in Venezuela
  • 12 December – Jamhuri Day in Kenya
  • 12 December – US Senate Special Election for Alabama
  • 12 December – Potential for a 24-hour strike on RER Lines A and B in Paris
  • 13 December – Pro-migrant rally to occur in Brussels
  • 13 December – Saint Lucia National Day
  • 15 December – Italian Aviation Workers to Strike

Click link to Download PDF:  Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 49 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.