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Gulf Security Under Pressure Following Israel-Iran Strikes

Israel-Iran Strikes Renew Threats to Gulf Stability

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 13:00 UTC 8 June 2026

Following escalating conflict in Lebanon, Israel and Iran engaged in retaliatory tit-for-tat strikes. Late 7 June, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated that it had intercepted a wave of Iranian missiles in northern Israel. Iran reportedly launched at least ten ballistic missiles against Israel, all of which the IDF claimed were intercepted. This was Iran’s first direct attack against Israel since the implementation of the 8 April ceasefire.

The strikes followed a rocket attack on northern Israel launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon on 7 June, which the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) responded to with strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahieh).

A statement from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that Iranian “missile and drone units launched a co-ordinated and intensive attack targeting the heart of the northern cities”. The statement added that “this operation is not a passing event, but rather the beginning of a full week of continuous strikes” and that “waves of missiles and drones will continue to be launched around the clock for the next seven days until the enemy is deterred and ceases its crimes. … Any targeting of Iranian territory will be met with a devastating and overwhelming response beyond all expectation.”

Early 8 June, Israel launched retaliatory strikes on western and central Iran, with Iranian state TV reporting explosions in multiple cities, including Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, and near Karaj. The IDF claimed that it launched strikes against “several targets” at an Iranian petrochemical facility in Mahshahr.

Missiles were subsequently fired from Yemen, alongside another Iranian salvo, with the Houthis claiming that they conducted a joint strike with Iran. The group also reiterated their total ban on Israeli vessels transiting the Red Sea. The IRGC stated that it targeted two Israeli air bases in Nevatim and Tel Nof.

The Al-Kharj governorate in Saudi Arabia issued an early warning in the early hours of 8 June “in anticipation of a possible danger”. Al-Kharj hosts the US Prince Sultan Air Base, which was regularly attacked until the 8 April ceasefire. Iranian officials have denied an attempted attack on Saudi Arabia, and an attack against Al-Kharj remains unconfirmed.

US President Donald Trump has reportedly made significant efforts to “restrain” the Israeli response against Iran to allow more time for diplomacy. At approximately 11:30 UTC, the IRGC issued a statement that “the cessation of armed forces operations is hereby announced”, but that if attacks continue, “including in southern Lebanon”, Iran will respond “more severe and forceful than before”. It is not immediately clear whether Israel has also agreed to a pause, and Israeli media have reported that no final decision has been made, as of 13:00 UTC, 8 June.

After this statement, Lebanese media reported further Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. Three rockets were reportedly launched by Hezbollah at IDF troops in southern Lebanon in response. Two of the rockets were intercepted, while a third struck close to the target. No casualties were reported.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Drivers of Further Middle East Escalation Remain Unresolved

Tehran had previously warned that strikes in Beirut “could derail the diplomatic track” and prompt retaliation, with Iranian officials consistently insisting that the ceasefire includes Lebanon. Continued conflict in Lebanon, which remains highly likely, will almost certainly continue to complicate the wider US-Iran negotiations and could again trigger further cycles of Israel-Iran strikes, which endanger the broader ceasefire.

Hezbollah have historically served as a key component of Iranian deterrence in the region, and its preservation is highly likely a strategic priority for Tehran. However, the regime’s focus on Lebanon and claimed suspension of negotiations also followed President Trump’s request for several amendments to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) being negotiated by the US and Iran.

It is highly likely that the Iranian regime, which is increasingly under the control of hardline IRGC commanders such as Major General Ahmad Vahidi, calculates that it is willing to accept the risk of a return to full-scale conflict or a continuation of the current status quo rather than be perceived as conceding to US demands. By increasingly linking the status of the ceasefire to Lebanon, the regime likely also seeks to divert attention from and gain leverage over the two principal points of contention in negotiations: control of the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file.

As of 13:00 UTC, 8 June, it remains unconfirmed whether the current escalation cycle between Israel and Iran has fully ceased. If Israel conducts further strikes against either Iran or Beirut in the coming hours, this would almost certainly be met with further Iranian retaliation.

If further tit-for-tat strikes are sustained, or an Israel-Iran confrontation is again prompted by developments in Lebanon, there is a realistic possibility of Iranian retaliation strikes expanding to include attacks on the Gulf States. Iran’s chief negotiator and parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, threatened that the Israeli strikes against Iran, in addition to the ongoing US naval blockade, have made US bases and assets in the region “legitimate targets”. Moreover, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated outlet Fars, citing a senior Iranian official, reported that if Iranian energy infrastructure is attacked again, Iran will carry out attacks against US oil and gas facilities in the region.

The involvement of the Yemen-based Houthis was almost certainly limited and primarily performative. However, their involvement highly likely serves Tehran as a key deterrence due to the Houthi capability to impact maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The most critical leverage Iran has highly likely been able to impose against the US is the continued impact on the global economy and energy markets due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains severely disrupted. In the event of a full-scale escalation, it is likely that Iran would seek to additionally close the Bab al-Mandeb, as repeatedly threatened.

Travel and Safety Guidance for the Middle East

Avoid all non-essential travel to the Middle East.
Travellers should follow shelter-in-place orders and advisories, particularly in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
Do not conduct travel to the airport until shelter-in-place orders or recommendations are lifted. Once lifted, ensure that booked flights are still running before conducting travel to the airport.
Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if situated in the Middle East.
Sign up for government/embassy alerts.
Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
Expect the security situation in the region to remain unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes, terrorist attacks, and civil unrest.
Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
Closely monitor alerts from a security provider if available, trusted local news reports and government alerts.

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