Large-scale unrest escalates in La Paz and several regions of Bolivia

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The current protest movement in Bolivia has almost certainly evolved into a large-scale challenge to President Paz’s government, as reflected by the increased participation of civil society actors, unions and other sections of Bolivian society. In addition, the drivers of unrest have almost certainly expanded in scope. Initial protests were a direct reaction to fuel subsidy cuts, but have increasingly been driven by broader socioeconomic grievances, including inflation, fuel shortages, wage and pension demands, opposition to the government’s wider reform agenda, and calls for the president to resign.

Paz was elected in November 2025. However, millions of Bolivians view the incumbent government as illegitimate. Paz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Party (PDC) succeeded due to the fragmentation of the long-dominant MAS, which resulted in the left-wing vote being split between several candidates. This means that Paz’s control of the executive is not reflective of an actual political mandate, with most of Bolivia’s electorate likely still aligned with MAS.

This political vulnerability almost certainly constitutes a major structural weakness, which makes the Paz government unable to address the root causes of the unrest and provide a policymaking alternative that could restore order in the short term while preserving government integrity. The ongoing international fuel crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has almost certainly worsened the fallout from the fuel subsidy removal and further constrained the government’s room for manoeuvre.

In the immediate term, it is likely that violent unrest will continue in La Paz and in the rural parts of Bolivia, such as Chapare and Cochabamba, where Morales has a strong base of support. Due to the use of explosives by protesters and the violent response by officers, it is likely that the protests will result in further fatalities.

The highly dispersed system of roadblocks used by protesters is likely aimed at maximising disruption while overstretching police clearance operations. However, if sustained, the government will likely be forced to deploy additional police and military personnel to clear key routes and protect critical supply corridors, increasing the risk of violence between protestors and security forces, which in turn could exacerbate unrest.

Sustained nationwide roadblocks will likely cause protracted travel and service disruptions in La Paz and other large urban centres. Local media have already reported shortages of medicine and medical equipment, which will likely decrease access to quality healthcare. The government has already deployed the Bolivian Air Force to transport food to La Paz from other parts of the country.

Extended fuel shortages are likely to cause power outages, with secondary impacts, such as an increase in property crime, also being possible. For travellers, blockades are likely to reduce options to leave Bolivia, with several roadblocks established on the approaches to airports and international borders.

There is a realistic possibility that the Paz government will increasingly deploy coercive measures to contain the protests, with the likelihood of this increasing if the blockade of La Paz continues. Such efforts would be primarily dedicated to securing La Paz, but would almost certainly provoke a violent reaction, with attacks on security forces and police becoming likelier. In rural areas, these could take the form of ambushes on police units responding to blockades. Previous examples of this include an attack which occurred in June 2025 in the mining town of Llallahua in the Potosí region, where three officers were killed in an ambush.