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US and Israel launch attack on Iran

US and Israel Conduct Major Strikes Against Iran

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 08:10 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2026

At approximately 10:00 Iranian local time on 28 February, the US and Israel conducted strikes against Iran. The strikes followed weeks of escalating regional tensions, large-scale US military build-up across the region and Tehran’s refusal to concede to US demands regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has stated that the attack was a “pre-emptive strike” to “remove threats against the State of Israel”. A senior US official has stated that the strikes were conducted against military targets. Israeli media, citing an Israeli official, has reported that Israel is preparing for several days of conflict with Iran.

US President Donald Trump has said the US has launched “major combat operations” in Iran, stating in a video on Truth Social that “we’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground . . . we’re going to annihilate their navy, we’re going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilise the region or the world and attack our forces”. To Iranian citizens, he stated “when we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take”.

Early reporting indicates that the operation involved at least three initial strikes delivered by Israel, followed by multiple more strikes delivered by Israel and the US. Iranian media have reported at least three initial strikes in central Tehran, with several further strikes in the north and east of Tehran.

Reported targets include at least six Iranian cities: Tehran, Qom, Kermanshah, Isfahan, Karaj, and Tabriz, as well as Lorestan province. According to Iranian media, explosions have been reported in the district where the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly resides, with further explosions taking place in District 11, containing the presidential palace and the National Security Council. Based on initial reports, the strike profile appears to be major.

Initial indications regarding the effect of the strikes are unconfirmed, but Israeli media reports claim that the Commander-In-Chief of the Iranian Army, Amir Hatami, may have been killed in Tehran. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Khamenei was not in Tehran during the initial attack and had been transferred to a secure location. According to Iranian media, President Masoud Pezeshkian is “in full health.”

As of 0810 UTC 28 February, there are reports of Iranian kinetic retaliation being initiated, with Iranian missile launches detected by the IDF. An Iranian official told international media that Iran is preparing for retaliation and that the response is set to be “crushing”.

In Israel, authorities have enacted a “special and permanent state of emergency” and closed the country’s airspace, with Home Front Command / the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issuing guidance including advising citizens to stay near protected shelters and minimise travel, and announcing the closure of schools, workplaces, and public gatherings. Sirens sounded across Israel at approximately 08:15 Israel local time (06:15 UTC), warning of a possible impending missile attack. The Israeli government has suspended civilian flights to and from the country in the wake of the attack on Iran.

Diplomatic missions have issued advisories for countries across the Middle East. The US has issued shelter-in-place advisories in Israel, Qatar, and Bahrain.

The air and maritime disruption is immediate and almost certain to expand. Authorities are confirmed to have closed the entirety of the airspace in Israel, Iran and Iraq. Flight tracking websites confirm that this has already resulted in major region-wide flight diversions, cancellations, and delays.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Elevated Threat Environment Across the Middle East

The strikes almost certainly significantly elevate the risk profile of the entire Middle East. Given the early indications of the significant scale of the attack, major Iranian retaliation is highly likely.

In the immediate term, further airspace closures are highly likely, which will almost certainly further impact air travel and, in some cases, reduce options for evacuation via commercial airlines. Further revisions to government travel advisories are highly likely, and any evacuation of non-essential embassy personnel would likely reduce consular capacity and complicate support to nationals remaining in-country.

The region-wide risk of terrorist attacks, kidnappings, and civil unrest, including the staging of protests targeting US and Israeli businesses and diplomatic missions, has now likely increased.

Potential Retailiation

Although the strikes will likely lead to the degradation of Iran’s capability to retaliate, Iran likely retains multiple means of retaliation through its own ballistic missile and attack drone capabilities, as well as through the activation of its regional proxy forces.

During the June 2025 12-Day War, Iran either used or lost a significant proportion of its ballistic missile and attack drone stockpiles. However, since the 12 Day War, Iran has reportedly expanded production rates, with recent estimates indicating that Iran holds an inventory of approximately 1,500-2,000 ballistic missiles and far higher numbers of long-range attack drones.

While considerably degraded in the various conflicts since October 2023, Iran’s proxy forces retain considerable capabilities across the region. The Houthis in Yemen maintain large stockpiles of missiles and long-range attack drones, which are in range of Israel and all of the Arabian Peninsula. Hezbollah in Lebanon likely retains the capability to conduct attacks into northern Israel, and Iraqi Shia militias are capable of launching rocket and drone attacks from Iraq.

There are numerous possible courses of action for Iranian retaliation, each with variable likelihood and potential impact.

Retaliation Against Israel

It is highly likely that Iran will launch large-scale layered ballistic missile and attack drone strikes against Israel. Attacks on Israel are likely to result in mandatory shelter-in-place orders, business closures, suspension of public gatherings, restrictions on travel, curfews, and other restrictions and emergency protocols.

During the 12-Day War, Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles and approximately 1,000 attack drones towards Israel. Likely target sets include Ben Gurion International Airport, military bases, government and security facilities, and infrastructure such as ports and energy facilities. Likely due to both intentional targeting and poor accuracy, Iranian retaliation strikes in Israel also almost certainly pose a high risk to civilian-profile targets, including international hotels, in high-density urban areas.

It is likely that Israeli air defence interception will initially be successful at intercepting the vast majority of incoming projectiles, although debris from successful interceptions can still pose a threat to life. However, during the 12-Day War, penetration rates of Iranian ballistic missiles increased from around 8 per cent at the start of the conflict to around 25 per cent at the end. This was likely due to Israeli interceptor shortages and Iran’s increased use of more advanced weapon systems.  

Large-scale Iranian strikes against Israel are likely to lead to a protracted closure of Israeli airspace and disruption to regional air traffic. This would almost certainly render air evacuation from Israel unavailable, necessitating alternative options such as potential overground evacuation to neighbouring Jordan or Egypt, or maritime evacuation to Cyprus.

However, in a rapidly evolving and dynamic threat environment, any evacuation plan will need to be tailored to conditions at the time and consider factors like border closures, regional airspace closures, and maritime threat advisories.

Due to Jordan’s geographic location between Israel and Iran, attempted strikes against Israel almost certainly pose a threat of falling debris, unexploded ordnance, and airspace closure. In the medium term, there is an increased risk of civil unrest in Amman, particularly outside the US and Israeli embassies.

Strikes Against Regional US Military Assets

It is likely that Iran, potentially supported by the Yemen-based Houthis, will attempt to conduct attacks against US naval assets operating in the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, or Red Sea, particularly the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG). The threat environment for maritime transit through these areas is likely to be severe in the event of active hostilities between the US and Iran.

Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that a US attack would result in retaliatory strikes against US bases and facilities across the region. There is a realistic possibility that Iran will launch ballistic missiles towards US bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar. Following the US intervention in the 12-Day War, Iran launched 14 ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Air Base near Doha, Qatar. Despite resulting in no casualties, the attack caused notable air travel disruption.

Iranian retaliation strikes against US regional bases would likely lead to significant air travel disruption in the targeted country, a threat of debris from successful interceptions, and the imposition of shelter-in-place orders. Moreover, while strikes in these countries are highly likely to prioritise US military bases, such as Al Dhafra Air Base outside Abu Dhabi, UAE, the targeting of civilian areas cannot be discounted.

Activation of Proxy Forces

Tehran is likely to leverage the capabilities of its proxy forces to retaliate. The Houthis have threatened to restart their anti-shipping campaign and will likely launch long-range attacks against Israel, particularly Eilat, Tel Aviv, and Ben Gurion International Airport. If the conflict escalates, there is also a realistic possibility of the Houthis launching attacks against US bases in the Arabian Peninsula. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), the loose network of Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq, are likely to launch its own attacks against Israel and US military bases in the region.

Lebanese Hezbollah did not intervene during the 12-Day War due to their severe degradation and continued Israeli military pressure. However, particularly if the Iranian regime is existentially threatened, there is a realistic possibility that Hezbollah will conduct attacks targeting northern Israel. This would highly likely lead to major IDF operations in Lebanon, including strikes in southern Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley, and in Beirut targeting Hezbollah senior leadership.

Targeting of Economic and Energy Interests

Iranian officials and proxy force leaders have previously warned of retaliation strikes targeting US economic interests in the region, particularly oil and gas infrastructure. This would almost certainly further escalate the conflict and risk drawing in Gulf States against Iran. However, if existentially threatened, there is a realistic possibility of Iran and its proxy forces conducting region-wide attacks against oil and gas infrastructure and other economic targets. Iranian state media has previously threatened to target key economic and technology zones in Dubai, UAE, and the Saudi port of Jubail.

Global Impact

Active conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and adjacent waters is likely to disrupt international shipping and trade. It is estimated that 20 per cent of global daily oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

There is an elevated global risk of large-scale and potentially violent civil unrest in response to any potential conflict. Large-scale protests may be staged in major US cities, other Western cities and across the Islamic world. Protests outside of US and Israeli embassies are likely.

Recommendations

Avoid all non-essential travel to the Middle East.
Travellers should follow shelter-in-place orders and advisories, particularly in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
Do not conduct travel to the airport until shelter-in-place orders or recommendations are lifted. Once lifted, ensure that booked flights are still running before conducting travel to the airport.
Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if situated in the Middle East.
Travellers in Israel should familiarise themselves with the nearest air raid shelter and ensure that they have downloaded applications that provide early warning of incoming threats, such as Home Front Command or Red Alert.
Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
Expect the security situation in the region to remain highly unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes, terrorist attacks, and civil unrest.
Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
Closely monitor alerts from a security provider if available, trusted local news reports and government alerts.

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