Global Risk Outlook 2026

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Threats to infrastructure and access to core resources are exposing vulnerabilities across systems that underpin global operations.

In Europe, sabotage campaigns targeting power lines, undersea cables, and logistics infrastructure are placing new pressure on physical security and incident response. At the same time, resource scarcity is influencing stability and diplomacy across regions. Water stress is intensifying tensions around shared basins with long-term implications for cooperation, regional competition, and localised unrest.

Governments are facing more reactive populations – and are responding in increasingly divergent ways.

Youth-led protest movements are emerging in multiple regions, often driven by economic frustration, demographic shifts, and disillusionment with political elites. These movements are agile and increasingly decentralised, challenging conventional state responses. In Latin America, some governments are adopting hardline policing models in response to crime and insecurity, prompting debate over long-term impact on rights, governance, and investor confidence.

Several regions remain shaped by instability, contested authority, and state fragility – with risks that extend across borders.

In the Middle East, fragile political transitions and unresolved conflicts are maintaining pressure on both domestic stability and regional relations. In Africa, Islamic State affiliates are claiming the vast majority of the group’s global activity, with increasingly autonomous provinces driving cross-border threats. In South Asia and Latin America, unrest linked to electoral dynamics and expat tensions is adding volatility in key urban and commercial hubs.

Security risks are shifting into areas that cut across infrastructure, mobility, and personal exposure.

Criminal tactics and hybrid threats are increasingly targeting executives, travellers, and high-visibility individuals. In Europe, drone interference is disrupting aviation operations with little warning and limited accountability. In urban centres, high-value theft and visibility-driven attacks are creating new exposure for high-net-worth individuals. And in the digital space, crypto-related violence is on the rise, linking physical targeting to financial behaviour and asset ownership.